The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
We have tropical trouble this morning. Hurricane Philippe is moving north/northwest, and is passing east of the Leeward Islands this morning. This one should remain out at sea, and will be southeast of Bermuda by Friday night or Saturday. So... we will focus most of our attention on:
RITA: Latest recon data shows 997 mb and max flight level winds of 64 knots in the northern quadrant. Looks likes we are about to have a hurricane on our hands. Latest NHC track takes Rita just south of Key West late tomorrow night, and hurricane warnings remain in effect for the Keys where evacuations continue this morning.
Rita will roll through the southern half of the Gulf, and should reach major hurricane status.
That NHC track puts Rita into the Texas coast near Corpus Christi late Friday night or early Saturday. However, the NHC track is actually an outlier to the left as most models want to take the system to near Galveston. The FSU MM5 actually points Rita to the Louisiana coast (but well west of New Orleans). This will be a long week of waiting and watching along the Texas coast.
The GFS suggests the big rain shield from Rita will remain west of Alabama once the system is inland. This would change if by chance there is a Louisiana landfall.
AROUND HERE: The September heat wave continues today with 500 mb heights of 5940 meters or higher in place meaning highs in the low 90s for most places. Maybe even mid 90s in spots. A weak front drifts down here by mid-week, so a few isolated showers are possible late tomorrow into Wednesday. But once again beneficial rain is not likely. The end of the week should be mostly dry, but there could be enough moisture for isolated showers.
Birmingham's rain total for the month is only 0.15", and our deficit for the year has grown to 1.12".
THE LONG RANGE: The GFS (00Z run) is now advertising a long wave trough over the central U.S. in early October, with the coldest air of the season behind it. We sure can be optimistic some of that colder air reaches Alabama in the October 2-4 time frame.
Headed out to Etowah county this morning for a speech... will be back in the office for the afternoon update, which will be posted by 3:30 p.m...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
We have tropical trouble this morning. Hurricane Philippe is moving north/northwest, and is passing east of the Leeward Islands this morning. This one should remain out at sea, and will be southeast of Bermuda by Friday night or Saturday. So... we will focus most of our attention on:
RITA: Latest recon data shows 997 mb and max flight level winds of 64 knots in the northern quadrant. Looks likes we are about to have a hurricane on our hands. Latest NHC track takes Rita just south of Key West late tomorrow night, and hurricane warnings remain in effect for the Keys where evacuations continue this morning.
Rita will roll through the southern half of the Gulf, and should reach major hurricane status.
That NHC track puts Rita into the Texas coast near Corpus Christi late Friday night or early Saturday. However, the NHC track is actually an outlier to the left as most models want to take the system to near Galveston. The FSU MM5 actually points Rita to the Louisiana coast (but well west of New Orleans). This will be a long week of waiting and watching along the Texas coast.
The GFS suggests the big rain shield from Rita will remain west of Alabama once the system is inland. This would change if by chance there is a Louisiana landfall.
AROUND HERE: The September heat wave continues today with 500 mb heights of 5940 meters or higher in place meaning highs in the low 90s for most places. Maybe even mid 90s in spots. A weak front drifts down here by mid-week, so a few isolated showers are possible late tomorrow into Wednesday. But once again beneficial rain is not likely. The end of the week should be mostly dry, but there could be enough moisture for isolated showers.
Birmingham's rain total for the month is only 0.15", and our deficit for the year has grown to 1.12".
THE LONG RANGE: The GFS (00Z run) is now advertising a long wave trough over the central U.S. in early October, with the coldest air of the season behind it. We sure can be optimistic some of that colder air reaches Alabama in the October 2-4 time frame.
Headed out to Etowah county this morning for a speech... will be back in the office for the afternoon update, which will be posted by 3:30 p.m...
on September 19, 2005, 6:16 am
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