Watching Rita

The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

RITA: Hot and dry weather here in Alabama again today, and that is one of the main reasons we don't expect Rita to threaten the central Gulf coast. The upper ridge responsible for the hot and dry weather should keep Rita on a westward track in the central Gulf of Mexico. Then, as the western side of the ridge breaks down later in the week, a turn to the northwest begins and Rita will be heading for the upper Texas coast.

In the short term, there is a very real chance Rita will be a major, dangerous hurricane over the Florida Keys in about 36 hours. It should remain a large and dangerous storm over the Gulf of Mexico. Keep in mind there have been no tropical systems over the northwest Gulf of Mexico this season, and no upwelling. Rita could give Katrina a run for the money on intensity at the time of landfall.

There is actually very good model agreement now; models along with the official NHC track take Rita to a point near Galveston on Friday night or early Saturday. Everyone in Galveston and Houston will need to begin preparations soon if this track holds, and we think it will.

The moisture from Rita will begin to curve to the east early next week, and we just might see some showers and storms around here Monday or Tuesday of next week. We will take whatever we can get.

PHILIPPE: A northward moving hurricane in the Atlantic; this one should be east of Bermuda by the weekend. No threat to the U.S. mainland.

SHORT TERM: A few isolated showers could pop up late tomorrow or Wednesday, but the chance of rain looks so small right now it is barely worth mentioning in the forecast package. Afternoon temperatures will remain above normal through the week.

LONG TERM: The 12z GFS shows a very promising long wave trough over the eastern U.S. a few day into October, which should bring the coolest weather so far this season. That is the one that might get a few spots into the upper 40s. Bring it on!

Sure enjoyed the visit to Regency Pointe in Rainbow City today... great crowd and a very nice lunch!

Posted by  
on September 19, 2005, 1:54 pm
I'm getting a cannot connect to server when trying to view the PM Map Discussion. Dunno what's wrong.

Anyone else having the same problems?

Wayne


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Posted by  
on September 19, 2005, 2:15 pm
Regarding the Video Map PM Update. It's showing now. It just started.

I'm going to try and re-log in as a Blog Member here, don't know if it will work or not. I tried before and it wouldn't do it, hopefully it will. Wish me luck.

Wayne
MSN IM: Viper_48
Bellsouth IM cobra911@bellsouth.net


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Posted by  
on September 19, 2005, 2:53 pm
When are the next model runs coming in?



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Posted by Paul  
on September 19, 2005, 8:50 pm
Rita is really gelling fast now-and the models have shifted further east again.Where it hits is a crap shoot-but it IS going to be a nasty one.Another hit even close to New Orleans-with the patched up,proven unreliable levy system-I do not even want to consider what would happen'at least a lot of the pop is still evacuated.

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