Rita Heads For The Warm Gulf Water

The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Sorry... running a tad late today. Tour group in the studio... some journalism students from a local college. Gave me a good chance to vent my frustration at the state of "tropical journalism". Most of these pretty people you see on TV along the coast reporting live from hurricanes have an interest in making THEMSELVES the story. I really don't want to see their hair blowing in the wind. Maybe I am just jealous. I am not the story, and reporters are not the story. The STORM and the IMPACT on local people and property is the story. Enough of the soapbox.

RITA: This will be a big, bad hurricane coming across the Gulf. See J.B.'s posts for the latest details on the system now.

NHC track and all models show excellent agreement... with landfall on the Texas coast somewhere between Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay late Friday night or early Saturday. I would not be surprised if Rita were to reach category four strength at some point on the way to Texas, and maybe even at the time of landfall. Houston, indeed we might have a big problem.

The last major hurricane to strike this region was Alicia in 1983. Our friends in Texas were simply overdue.

Please watch the video for other details on Rita... hopefully we will catch some rain early next week as the moisture from the system curves into the westerlies.

OZONE: A code orange ozone alert will continue for the Birmingham metro tomorrow (Jefferson and Shelby counties). That alert is also for particulate pollution as well.

Hot and mostly dry weather continues for the rest of the week. Fall begins Thursday at 5:23 p.m., but you would never know it by this weather.

Today's AQI (Air Quality Index) for Birmingham was 129, which is considered unhealthy for sensitive groups of people. We need that first good cold front of the fall season soon.

LONG RANGE: Unfortunately not much hope for any big cooldown through the rest of the month. A nice batch of very chilly air will drop across the Canadian border next week, but the ridge holds here across the south. That ridge, in fact, pretty much holds all the way through October 6 according to the 12Z run of the GFS.

Usually in a situation like this, the "ridge buster" of a trough, when it finally happens, will bring some really cold air down all at once. The change can be sudden and rather extreme. Will be fun to watch the upper pattern over North America through mid and late October.

STORM ALERT XTREME: We are excited about Storm Alert XTREME coming up on October 15 at Briarwood Presbyterian Church. Brian Peters and Jeff Craven are the main speakers, and they are two of the best severe weather experts in the nation. If you like to read this blog, you really need to be there.

We will also have a prime time TV weather special coming up in late October... busy days around here. But good days!
Posted by  
on September 20, 2005, 3:05 pm
THE RIDGE HOLDS--doesn't bother me a bit. I like hot weather!!!! I'm NOT ready for Fall or Winter. That's why I live in Alabama--although I could do without the hurricanes and tornadoes.

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Posted by Patrick  
on September 20, 2005, 3:07 pm
Speaking of journalism, someone should give Neal Vickers on AM960 WERC an accurate weather update on Rita. Just heard him saying that one forecast model shows Rita coming directly up Mobile Bay!?! He then tried to explain how the upper level ridge will influence the track of Rita and was totally wrong! Someone needs to send him the link to the map discussion with James. If you can't accurately report the news, don't say anything at all.

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Posted by  
on September 20, 2005, 3:47 pm
Hey Patrick I agree with you and James you are right some people have no reason down there if all they want to do is make themselves look good.

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