Hurricane Rita continues her explosive intensification early this afternoon. The pressure has now dropped to 920 millibars. This represents a drop of 40 millibars in 12 hours. The definition of explosive deepening is 30 millibars in 12 hours.
Rita is now tied for twelvth all time as far as lowest central pressure measured in an Atlantic hurricane. By my records, only Camille, Katrina nand Opal has had lower pressures measured in the Gulf of Mexico.
000
WTNT63 KNHC 211807
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS INTENSIFIED
A LITTLE MORE AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 150 MPH WINDS WITH A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THIS MAKES RITA A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
Here is the Air Force Reconnaissance Vortex Data message from the 920 millibar observation:
000
URNT12 KNHC 211808
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:53:20Z
B. 24 deg 17 min N
086 deg 10 min W
C. 700 mb 2400 m
D. 110 kt
E. 277 deg 005 nm
F. 016 deg 153 kt
G. 287 deg 007 nm
H. 920 mb
I. 9 C/ 3040 m
J. 26 C/ 3050 m
K. 3 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1418A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 153 KT W QUAD 17:51:30 Z
Note the 153 knot flight level wind. You use a 90% adjustment to calculate corresponding surface wind. This translates to 137.7 knots or about 158 mph. Rita is now borderline Category Five. The satellite presentation is excellent, with strong outflow to the north and decent outflow to the south. This dual outflow is apparently a key factor in allowing these hurricanes to intensify so rapidly.
Conventional wisdom says that the rapid deepening cycle has to level off shortly. With a large and expanding core like Katrina had in the same area, Rita may also be able to maintain intense strength for a long period of time. There may be fluctuations as the hurricane goes through eyewall replacement cycles, but it will remain a dangerous and powerful hurricane through the remainder of its existence until landfall.
All of the track guidance is unusually clustered on a track that would carry the center of the large hurricane to near Matagorda Bay on the Central Texas Coast on Friday. The latest official track from the National Hurricane Center during the overnight hours Friday night. Everyone should remember that 72 hour track errors can be quite large, and landfall could occur as far to the east as Lafayette, Louisiana and as far to the left as Brownsville, Texas, with hurricane conditions occurring across a wide area either side of the center at landfall.
Preparations are frantic all along the Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts with the memory of Katrina fresh in everyone's mind. A friend of mine reports huge lines at Houston Hobby's Airport as people are trying to get out of Houston in advance of the hurricane.
Rita is now tied for twelvth all time as far as lowest central pressure measured in an Atlantic hurricane. By my records, only Camille, Katrina nand Opal has had lower pressures measured in the Gulf of Mexico.
000
WTNT63 KNHC 211807
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS INTENSIFIED
A LITTLE MORE AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 150 MPH WINDS WITH A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THIS MAKES RITA A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
Here is the Air Force Reconnaissance Vortex Data message from the 920 millibar observation:
000
URNT12 KNHC 211808
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:53:20Z
B. 24 deg 17 min N
086 deg 10 min W
C. 700 mb 2400 m
D. 110 kt
E. 277 deg 005 nm
F. 016 deg 153 kt
G. 287 deg 007 nm
H. 920 mb
I. 9 C/ 3040 m
J. 26 C/ 3050 m
K. 3 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1418A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 153 KT W QUAD 17:51:30 Z
Note the 153 knot flight level wind. You use a 90% adjustment to calculate corresponding surface wind. This translates to 137.7 knots or about 158 mph. Rita is now borderline Category Five. The satellite presentation is excellent, with strong outflow to the north and decent outflow to the south. This dual outflow is apparently a key factor in allowing these hurricanes to intensify so rapidly.
Conventional wisdom says that the rapid deepening cycle has to level off shortly. With a large and expanding core like Katrina had in the same area, Rita may also be able to maintain intense strength for a long period of time. There may be fluctuations as the hurricane goes through eyewall replacement cycles, but it will remain a dangerous and powerful hurricane through the remainder of its existence until landfall.
All of the track guidance is unusually clustered on a track that would carry the center of the large hurricane to near Matagorda Bay on the Central Texas Coast on Friday. The latest official track from the National Hurricane Center during the overnight hours Friday night. Everyone should remember that 72 hour track errors can be quite large, and landfall could occur as far to the east as Lafayette, Louisiana and as far to the left as Brownsville, Texas, with hurricane conditions occurring across a wide area either side of the center at landfall.
Preparations are frantic all along the Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts with the memory of Katrina fresh in everyone's mind. A friend of mine reports huge lines at Houston Hobby's Airport as people are trying to get out of Houston in advance of the hurricane.