Raging Rita - Now A Category Five Hurricane

The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Please refer to posts below this one that have detailed current information on Rita... J.B. Elliott and Bill Murray's information is excellent. This blog will be our primary outlet for late breaking information on Rita in coming days, so be sure and check in often.

***Just learned that NHC will up Rita to a category FIVE on the next advisory package with 165 mph winds***

Here is the text

WTNT63 KNHC 211955
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 165 MPH. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 4 PM CDT ADVISORY.

We have noted a jog to the north in recent frames... there will be wobbles along the way. But, the NHC track and the models all point to landfall on the Texas Gulf coast between Port Lavaca and Freeport late Friday night or early Saturday morning as a category four storm, similar in strength to Katrina when she slammed ashore a few weeks ago.

This track would bring catastrophic damage to places like Port Lavaca and Freeport. And, significant damage and storm surge to Galveston. Any jog to the east would increase the risk of catastrophic damage to Galveston. That is why we are watching this north wobble with interest.

QPF shows 15 inches of rain for southeast Texas...

ALABAMA STORY: A few isolated showers have popped up over the northwest corner of Alabama this afternoon, but most places will be dry through Friday. Afternoon showers this weekend should be very isolated.

The 12Z run of the GFS keeps most of the moisture with Rita to the north and west of Alabama next week. BUT, the good news the long wave eastern U.S. trough is still there in the October 4-6 time frame, and a major change to colder weather is likely. Get ready for the 40s if this is correct.

AIR QUALITY: A code orange air quality alert for the Birmingham metro tomorrow due to particulate pollution.

A BIG THANK YOU: To Gary Watkins of our engineering staff, who has been up at our Doppler radar site on Double Oak mountain for days working on the system. The radar is back in operation now:

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/doppler.html

Lots going on in the weather office... we will have more information here shortly. Stay tuned...
Posted by  
on September 21, 2005, 2:16 pm
I don,t buy the GFS on the cool down just yet, because it has changed every day. I bet it will not look like that tomrrow. Let's hope Ritta will lose some of her power before landfall.

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Posted by  
on September 21, 2005, 2:23 pm
Looking at the past couple of sat immages, she sure is making a turn toward the North.. Now she has wobbled over the past 24 hours, but every tome she wobbled it was due to a shifting eyewall or was in response to a changing of the eyewall, however, the past couple of sat immages, is really showing a more northern turn, and has already taken her off the projected path earlier today by the NHC. I still will go with a more eastward landfall. I Kinda wish she woulod head due south, but Im afraid she has a mind of her own. James , you yourself have said many times. A storm this size cant be predicted becasue conventional wisdom has to be thrown out becasue there is very limited information on storms of this magnitude.

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Posted by  
on September 21, 2005, 2:52 pm
Yes it has already started its northerly turn and too early. I looked at the surface maps and the high is already moving to the east and out of the way. This is looking worse for LA again, but we'll know more tomorrow. If it does keep turning north, TX will catch a lot of hell for evacuating too early, but really they did the right thing.

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Posted by  
on September 21, 2005, 3:06 pm
Looks like more than a wobble to me.....Northward turn was several images and very noticeable.

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Posted by Jackson  
on September 21, 2005, 3:12 pm
are my eyes deceiving me or is this thing really moving more on a northward path ???? i thought the high was way too strong and would prevent this from happening.

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Posted by Jason  
on September 21, 2005, 3:32 pm
probably just a wobble


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Posted by FOOK MEHARD  
on May 18, 2006, 6:39 pm