The Latest Information on Intense Hurricane Rita - 10 p.m.

HURRICANE RITA EVEN STRONGER...TOP WINDS 175 MPH

Here's the latest information on Hurricane Rita...

At 10 pm CDT...
LOCATED: 24.6N 87.2W OR 570 MILES ESE OF GALVESTON
MOVEMENT: W-9 MPH
TOP WINDS: 175 mph (Category Five)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 897 millibars (26.48 inches)

Rita continues to have the third lowest central pressure ever measured in a North Atlantic Hurricane. The latest minimum pressure is estimated to be 897 millibars. Here is the top ten list of strongest Atlantic hurricanes ranked by central pressure...

GILBERT 1988 888
C STORM 1935 892
RITA 2005 897
ALLEN 1980 899
KATRINA 2005 902
CAMILLE 1969 905
MITCH 1998 910
IVAN 2004 912
ISABEL 2003 915
HUGO 1989 918

Unbelievably, Rita could strengthen even further, as it is over the waters of the Gulf Loop Current. Tomorrow, top winds are forecast to perhaps reach 185 mph sustained and 220 mph in gusts!

It will eventually go over water that is slightly cooler, so the intensification should stop, and the hurricane's intensity should lessen just a bit before it reaches land. In addition, there will be fluctuations in intensity as the hurricane gets so tightly wound that the inner eyewall collapses and a new one forms out at a larger distance from the center. This is called eyewall replacement.

Still, Rita is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category Four hurricane at landfall.

The forecast track has been shifted slightly to the east. The skinny black line goes just west of the Houston/Galveston area. This is very bad news for that area. Of course, landfall is still 72 hours away, and forecast errors at that time frame are large. The cone of error indicates that landfall could come anywhere from the Texas/Mexican border to the Louisiana coast near Lafayette.

Tropical Storm force winds extend out up to 185 miles and hurricane force winds out to 70 mph. Flooding will also be a serious concern with up to 15 inches of rain expected near the track of the hurricane over Texas. Rainfall amounts could be much heavier if the hurricane slows down after reaching land. Rain associated with the hurricane is already moving onto the northern Gulf Coast over the Florida panhandle.

The National Hurricane Center warns that as much as 2-4 inches of rain could fall over southern Louisiana...including the New Orleans area.

In addition, tornadoes will be commonplace, especially east of the track over Southeast Texas and western Louisiana.

It appears that people are taking the evacuation orders seriously in Texas. Listening to KTRH from Houston tonight, people are reporting huge delays on area interstates and highways. People have reported that it has taken 8 hours to go from Galveston to north of Houston.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Port Mansfield Texas to Cameron Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Prt Mansfield to Brownsville and Cameron to Grand Isle.

Posted by  
on September 21, 2005, 9:33 pm
I was a resident of the Houston area when Alicia came in. I lived in LaPorte, TX (on the north tip of Galveston Bay.

If I remember correctly, she had winds just less than 100mph (Cat 2?) but she did plenty of damage. Downtown Houston has a lot of glass-sided skyscrapers and after the storm they had to use bulldozers to scrape up all the glass!!

I believe the eye was pretty much over downtown Houston. I hate to think what this storm will do with the city just on the "bad" side and a Cat 4 or 5!!

As I said before, PRAY, PRAY, PRAY.


Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on September 21, 2005, 9:39 pm
I need some information. I have a 19 year old son living with his mother in San Antonio, TX. How much will Rita Impact San Antonio this much inland or will it hit it at all. Any advice would be appreciated.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Bill Murray  
on September 21, 2005, 9:48 pm
Based on current track of the storm, the San Antonio area should receive tropical storm force winds of about 50 mph Friday night after midnight and through part of Sunday. There will also be heavy rains that could cause flooding. The tornado threat should be east of the track and east of San Antonio.

Should a more westward track materialize, winds could reach hurricane force, but this seems a remote possibility at this time.

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Posted by  
on September 21, 2005, 9:55 pm
Thank you Bill for all your hard work that you do and thank you for the quick response.

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Posted by  
on September 21, 2005, 10:19 pm
Bill, you are right the western carribean bears watching. Most likely place for the best convection with anti cyclonic flow. Remember we still have 2 months to go.

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