The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
NHC continues to adjust the track eastward... they are now projecting landfall between Galveston and the Sabine River pass (TX/LA border) late tomorrow night.
This would be better news for Galveston and Houston. Not great news, but better news. Bad news for Port Arthur, Beaumont. and Lake Charles. There is still a significant threat of serious storm surge and wind damage at Galveston, and inland wind damage and flooding at Houston.
Notes from the forecast desk:
*Once again I remind you we have little skill and experience in forecasting the intensity changes in a storm this deep and strong. Be ready for a surprise one way or another. Folks on the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast must continue to prepare for a category four hurricane, similar to Katrina. It will take a long time for a storm of this size and strength to spin down even if weakening continues.
*The pressure rise has stopped for now. Seems like the core pressure is becoming steady around 915 mb. Latest recon vortex message shows 914 mb.
*Max flight level winds (10,000 feet, or 700 mb) are down to 125 knots, or 144 mph. THIS IS STILL A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. Don't let the morning pressure rise and decrease in wind fool you.
*Great concern here over Rita stalling out, and looping back to the southwest over southeast Texas. Latest QPF guidance shows a bullseye of 16 inches; I think some spots will see 20 inches of rain in the area between Houston and Lufkin.
J.B. will have frequent Rita updates on the blog tonight... so stay tuned.
THE ALABAMA STORY: We will mention a few isolated showers this evening, and again tomorrow. Most places will stay dry. A few scattered showers and storms are possible over the weekend with deeper moisture in place, but no wash out. Quite frankly, we could use a good wash-out, but most folks would not like to see one over the weekend. The best chance of scattered showers and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours.
Our next beneficial, widespread rain event is still probably one week out... a front will stall out near the Alabama/Tennessee border toward the end of next week, and some of the moisture from Rita could be involved at that time. Showers and storms look like a good bet in the 7 to 10 day forecast period.
HELLO AUTUMN: The equinox is coming up at 5:23 this afternoon. So long summer 2005.
Next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow... stay tuned to the blog for late updates on Rita and all other issues here in the weather office.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
NHC continues to adjust the track eastward... they are now projecting landfall between Galveston and the Sabine River pass (TX/LA border) late tomorrow night.
This would be better news for Galveston and Houston. Not great news, but better news. Bad news for Port Arthur, Beaumont. and Lake Charles. There is still a significant threat of serious storm surge and wind damage at Galveston, and inland wind damage and flooding at Houston.
Notes from the forecast desk:
*Once again I remind you we have little skill and experience in forecasting the intensity changes in a storm this deep and strong. Be ready for a surprise one way or another. Folks on the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast must continue to prepare for a category four hurricane, similar to Katrina. It will take a long time for a storm of this size and strength to spin down even if weakening continues.
*The pressure rise has stopped for now. Seems like the core pressure is becoming steady around 915 mb. Latest recon vortex message shows 914 mb.
*Max flight level winds (10,000 feet, or 700 mb) are down to 125 knots, or 144 mph. THIS IS STILL A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. Don't let the morning pressure rise and decrease in wind fool you.
*Great concern here over Rita stalling out, and looping back to the southwest over southeast Texas. Latest QPF guidance shows a bullseye of 16 inches; I think some spots will see 20 inches of rain in the area between Houston and Lufkin.
J.B. will have frequent Rita updates on the blog tonight... so stay tuned.
THE ALABAMA STORY: We will mention a few isolated showers this evening, and again tomorrow. Most places will stay dry. A few scattered showers and storms are possible over the weekend with deeper moisture in place, but no wash out. Quite frankly, we could use a good wash-out, but most folks would not like to see one over the weekend. The best chance of scattered showers and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours.
Our next beneficial, widespread rain event is still probably one week out... a front will stall out near the Alabama/Tennessee border toward the end of next week, and some of the moisture from Rita could be involved at that time. Showers and storms look like a good bet in the 7 to 10 day forecast period.
HELLO AUTUMN: The equinox is coming up at 5:23 this afternoon. So long summer 2005.
Next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow... stay tuned to the blog for late updates on Rita and all other issues here in the weather office.