RITA STILL A POWERFUL HIGH CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
TRACK MAY BE SHIFTING BACK TO WEST TOWARD GALVESTON A BIT...
FAST FACTS...HURRICANE RITA
10 PM CDT
LOCATED...LAT 26.2 N LON 90.3 W OR 350 Miles SE of Galveston, TX
MOVEMENT WNW 10 mph
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 MPH (Catgeory 4)
MINIMUM PRESSURE 917 millibars (27.08 inches) in fix made at 8:44 pm CDT
FUTURE TRACK
The evening model runs are coming in now and the track forecasts are tightly clustered near or just east of Houston. After wobbling a bit to the right during the afternoon, the hurricane continues on a west northwest track which should take it to the Upper Texas Coast, It could go in just north of Houston/Galveston, or just to the south of that location.
INTENSITY FORECAST
Hurricane Rita is not quite as organized as it was earlier this evening and certainly last night. The eyewall is ragged and open in one direction. But people, it is still an extremely dangerous strong Category Four hurricane. It is a large storm, and will bring devastation to a wide area and its effects will be felt over a huge distance. In addition, Rita still has to go over some warmer water before landfall, and it will be going through the intensification phase of an eywall replacement cycle, so it may intensity a bit again. The official forecast calls for it to be at least at Category 3 hurricane. at landfall
SPOT REPORTS - 9 PM CDT
--Mississippi Coast--
BILOXI CLOUDY 82 72 69 SE16G40 29.83R
Thunderstorms over the Mississippi Sound are going to be rotating on shore during the next couple of hours.
--Louisana--
N.O. INTL ARPT LGT RAIN 80 73 79 E15G28 29.78F
--Texas--
GALVESTON CLEAR 85 71 63 E3 29.76R HX 90
PORT LAVACA CLEAR 82 75 78 S3 29.76S
BAD SITUATION IN HOUSTON
Imagine two million people all evacuating a major metro area during about an 18 hour period. No contraflow plan in place, What you get is gridlock on steriods. Motorsists stuck in traffic, gridlock, out of fuel and water...overheating and staled cars making jams worse.
National guard trucks are now providing gas to stuck motorists. Buses were being marshalled in case the jams do not break up. At 9:45 p.m. traffic on I-10 is finally moving at a good speed.
It is the largest evacuation in history of Lone Star State, with two million people fleeing the storm.
ANOTHER ALLISON SCENARIO?
Remember Tropical Storm Allison four years ago? The storm moved inland near Houston, then looped back on itself and dumped up to 40 inches of rain over the eastern suburbs of the city. Catastrophic flooding resulted in parts of the city. Rita coukld dump upwards of 25 inches of rain on parts of eastern Texas and western Louisiana during the next few days if it slows after landfall.
MORE PROBLEMS FOR NEW ORLEANS?
A surge of 1-3 feet is expected on Lake Ponchartrain and 2-6 feet at the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Rains of 2-4 inches will cause additional problems. Winds may gust to tropical storm force and tornadoes may form.
TRACK MAY BE SHIFTING BACK TO WEST TOWARD GALVESTON A BIT...
FAST FACTS...HURRICANE RITA
10 PM CDT
LOCATED...LAT 26.2 N LON 90.3 W OR 350 Miles SE of Galveston, TX
MOVEMENT WNW 10 mph
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 MPH (Catgeory 4)
MINIMUM PRESSURE 917 millibars (27.08 inches) in fix made at 8:44 pm CDT
FUTURE TRACK
The evening model runs are coming in now and the track forecasts are tightly clustered near or just east of Houston. After wobbling a bit to the right during the afternoon, the hurricane continues on a west northwest track which should take it to the Upper Texas Coast, It could go in just north of Houston/Galveston, or just to the south of that location.
INTENSITY FORECAST
Hurricane Rita is not quite as organized as it was earlier this evening and certainly last night. The eyewall is ragged and open in one direction. But people, it is still an extremely dangerous strong Category Four hurricane. It is a large storm, and will bring devastation to a wide area and its effects will be felt over a huge distance. In addition, Rita still has to go over some warmer water before landfall, and it will be going through the intensification phase of an eywall replacement cycle, so it may intensity a bit again. The official forecast calls for it to be at least at Category 3 hurricane. at landfall
SPOT REPORTS - 9 PM CDT
--Mississippi Coast--
BILOXI CLOUDY 82 72 69 SE16G40 29.83R
Thunderstorms over the Mississippi Sound are going to be rotating on shore during the next couple of hours.
--Louisana--
N.O. INTL ARPT LGT RAIN 80 73 79 E15G28 29.78F
--Texas--
GALVESTON CLEAR 85 71 63 E3 29.76R HX 90
PORT LAVACA CLEAR 82 75 78 S3 29.76S
BAD SITUATION IN HOUSTON
Imagine two million people all evacuating a major metro area during about an 18 hour period. No contraflow plan in place, What you get is gridlock on steriods. Motorsists stuck in traffic, gridlock, out of fuel and water...overheating and staled cars making jams worse.
National guard trucks are now providing gas to stuck motorists. Buses were being marshalled in case the jams do not break up. At 9:45 p.m. traffic on I-10 is finally moving at a good speed.
It is the largest evacuation in history of Lone Star State, with two million people fleeing the storm.
ANOTHER ALLISON SCENARIO?
Remember Tropical Storm Allison four years ago? The storm moved inland near Houston, then looped back on itself and dumped up to 40 inches of rain over the eastern suburbs of the city. Catastrophic flooding resulted in parts of the city. Rita coukld dump upwards of 25 inches of rain on parts of eastern Texas and western Louisiana during the next few days if it slows after landfall.
MORE PROBLEMS FOR NEW ORLEANS?
A surge of 1-3 feet is expected on Lake Ponchartrain and 2-6 feet at the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Rains of 2-4 inches will cause additional problems. Winds may gust to tropical storm force and tornadoes may form.
on September 22, 2005, 10:22 pm
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