Hurricane Rita will make landfall after midnight over far western Louisiana coast..
I project landfall will occur near Holly Beach just west of Cameron, Louisiana. Radar shows center of eye some 72 miles south southeast of Holly Beach, Louisiana around 8:15 p.m. It is moving NNW at 10-11 mph. This will bring the northern eyewall onshore in Cameron Parish, Louisiana just after midnight with landfall of the eye around 2 a.m. just west of the city of Cameron, Louisiana, on the coast in Cameron Parish, Louisiana.
This is going to produce a tremendous storm surge into Lake Calcasieu and across the marshlands of Cameron and Calcasieu Parishes. A surge of 15-20 feet will rush north across Lake Calcasieu and into the Calcasieu River and Calcasieu Ship Channel, reaching as far north as I-20, nearly fourty miles inland. The cities of Lake Charles and Sulphur will be affected.
More bad news...high tide will occur in that area around midnight, corresponding with the time of landfall. This will add another two feet to the surge heights. The NWS Lake Charles warns that places Like Orange, Sulphur, Lake Charles and Beaumont may be inundated. They also warn that the 17.5 foot seawall at Port Arthur might be breached, but that looks less likely if the center moves inland east of that location. Vermillion Parish will see a 10-15 foot surge. 6-10 feet across Iberia and St. Mary's Parish.
This is the same area that was impacted by Category Four Hurricane Audrey in 1957. 390 people died and 192 were never found after the storm intensified rapidly and accelerated in the hours before landfall, surprising residents of the low lying area who thought they had time to evacuate the following morning. A 12 foot surge was felt over a wide area of the coast from Cameron to Grand Cheniere. People who thought they were safe twenty miles inland awoke to find water levels rising into their homes.
Coastal observations at 8 PM CDT...
Just after 8 pm, winds gusted to 72 mph at the Lake Charles Airport....
At Calcasieu Pass near Cameron LA...winds NNE 52 mph gusting to 78 mph (hurricane force)...pressure 29.03...
At Marsh Island south of Lafayette...(7 pm) SSE 72 mph gusting to 94 mph... pressure 29.08...no reports since then
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BEAUMONT RAIN 76 73 92 N37G49 29.37F FOG
LAKE CHARLES LGT RAIN 76 72 86 NE43G54 29.32F FOG
LAFAYETTE RAIN 78 75 91 NE30G37 29.42F
HOUSTON TX LGT RAIN 84 70 62 NE33G44 29.53F
GALVESTON CLOUDY 79 73 83 N39G54 29.43F
N.O. INTL ARPT LGT RAIN 82 75 78 E25G37 29.62S
This just in...
A magnitude 5.o earthquake has been observed 500 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. It has been determined that no tsunami will be generated by the quake, so no tsunami warning is being issued. What next?
I project landfall will occur near Holly Beach just west of Cameron, Louisiana. Radar shows center of eye some 72 miles south southeast of Holly Beach, Louisiana around 8:15 p.m. It is moving NNW at 10-11 mph. This will bring the northern eyewall onshore in Cameron Parish, Louisiana just after midnight with landfall of the eye around 2 a.m. just west of the city of Cameron, Louisiana, on the coast in Cameron Parish, Louisiana.
This is going to produce a tremendous storm surge into Lake Calcasieu and across the marshlands of Cameron and Calcasieu Parishes. A surge of 15-20 feet will rush north across Lake Calcasieu and into the Calcasieu River and Calcasieu Ship Channel, reaching as far north as I-20, nearly fourty miles inland. The cities of Lake Charles and Sulphur will be affected.
More bad news...high tide will occur in that area around midnight, corresponding with the time of landfall. This will add another two feet to the surge heights. The NWS Lake Charles warns that places Like Orange, Sulphur, Lake Charles and Beaumont may be inundated. They also warn that the 17.5 foot seawall at Port Arthur might be breached, but that looks less likely if the center moves inland east of that location. Vermillion Parish will see a 10-15 foot surge. 6-10 feet across Iberia and St. Mary's Parish.
This is the same area that was impacted by Category Four Hurricane Audrey in 1957. 390 people died and 192 were never found after the storm intensified rapidly and accelerated in the hours before landfall, surprising residents of the low lying area who thought they had time to evacuate the following morning. A 12 foot surge was felt over a wide area of the coast from Cameron to Grand Cheniere. People who thought they were safe twenty miles inland awoke to find water levels rising into their homes.
Coastal observations at 8 PM CDT...
Just after 8 pm, winds gusted to 72 mph at the Lake Charles Airport....
At Calcasieu Pass near Cameron LA...winds NNE 52 mph gusting to 78 mph (hurricane force)...pressure 29.03...
At Marsh Island south of Lafayette...(7 pm) SSE 72 mph gusting to 94 mph... pressure 29.08...no reports since then
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BEAUMONT RAIN 76 73 92 N37G49 29.37F FOG
LAKE CHARLES LGT RAIN 76 72 86 NE43G54 29.32F FOG
LAFAYETTE RAIN 78 75 91 NE30G37 29.42F
HOUSTON TX LGT RAIN 84 70 62 NE33G44 29.53F
GALVESTON CLOUDY 79 73 83 N39G54 29.43F
N.O. INTL ARPT LGT RAIN 82 75 78 E25G37 29.62S
This just in...
A magnitude 5.o earthquake has been observed 500 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. It has been determined that no tsunami will be generated by the quake, so no tsunami warning is being issued. What next?