The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
TROPICS: The wave over the Caribbean looks better and better, and it looks like tropical storm Stan is being born. A hurricane hunter should be in the wave tomorrow with more details.
The LBAR takes the system to the eastern Florida panhandle, and we discount that solution for now. The LBAR has done a horrible job all season with tropical systems. The BAM runs take it westward to the Yucatan peninsula. More than likely that is the correct solution, and the best chance of landfall at this point, in my humble opinion, would be on the Mexican coast. Needless to say we are really early in the game, however.
We will watch the wave in the central Atlantic near 10N/40W.
AROUND HERE: Guess we will still mention the risk of widely scattered showers late tomorrow night or Thursday morning with the front, but most places should be dry. Cooler air will be felt on Thursday; the new GFS MOS has a high of only 76 here on Thursday; but the NAM is probably closer to being correct with 79. The GFS is showing 55 here Friday morning; J.B. in his afternoon forecast package is using 57, which looks good to me. Of course, this is not a "one number" part of the world, lows Friday morning will probably vary from 50 in the coolest valleys to the low 60s on the ridge tops.
WEEKEND: The chance of rain looks very, very small Saturday and Sunday. Guess we can't rule out the chance of isolated showers, but the chance is so small now it is not worth mentioning in the forecast. Highs should be in the 80 to 85 degree range both Saturday and Sunday.
Thanks to the kids over at Southminister School in Vestavia today... had a great time sharing the science of meteorology with the third graders. Good to have BRENDA LADUN in the peanut gallery too.
Also enjoyed the visit with the realtors at Realty South this morning over at McCalla!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
TROPICS: The wave over the Caribbean looks better and better, and it looks like tropical storm Stan is being born. A hurricane hunter should be in the wave tomorrow with more details.
The LBAR takes the system to the eastern Florida panhandle, and we discount that solution for now. The LBAR has done a horrible job all season with tropical systems. The BAM runs take it westward to the Yucatan peninsula. More than likely that is the correct solution, and the best chance of landfall at this point, in my humble opinion, would be on the Mexican coast. Needless to say we are really early in the game, however.
We will watch the wave in the central Atlantic near 10N/40W.
AROUND HERE: Guess we will still mention the risk of widely scattered showers late tomorrow night or Thursday morning with the front, but most places should be dry. Cooler air will be felt on Thursday; the new GFS MOS has a high of only 76 here on Thursday; but the NAM is probably closer to being correct with 79. The GFS is showing 55 here Friday morning; J.B. in his afternoon forecast package is using 57, which looks good to me. Of course, this is not a "one number" part of the world, lows Friday morning will probably vary from 50 in the coolest valleys to the low 60s on the ridge tops.
WEEKEND: The chance of rain looks very, very small Saturday and Sunday. Guess we can't rule out the chance of isolated showers, but the chance is so small now it is not worth mentioning in the forecast. Highs should be in the 80 to 85 degree range both Saturday and Sunday.
Thanks to the kids over at Southminister School in Vestavia today... had a great time sharing the science of meteorology with the third graders. Good to have BRENDA LADUN in the peanut gallery too.
Also enjoyed the visit with the realtors at Realty South this morning over at McCalla!
on September 27, 2005, 8:12 pm
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on September 27, 2005, 8:14 pm
NAM is the North American Mesoscale model, formerly known as the ETA...
James Spann
ABC 33/40
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