So what about the winter of 2005-2006?
I really don't like to issue seasonal outlooks; it is all guesswork. But, with so much knowledge on the various patterns and oscillations around the globe now, it is certainly educated guesswork. Quite frankly, in my 20 hour a day world of being a husband and father, doing weather broadcasts on radio, TV, and the Internet, school programs, speeches to civic groups and churches, various ministry and community service work, etc… I simply don’t have time to do the necessary research for a decent seasonal outlook. When preparing a seasonal outlook, you really have to look closely at SSTs, the NAO, ENSO, PDO, MJO, MEI, EP, PNA, AO, OCS, and the QBO. Just the sound of all of that gives me a BTH... a Big Time Headache!
I do like to dabble in weather outlooks in the 7 to 20 day period, but not three months in advance.
Having said all of that….
I have to think temperatures here in Alabama this winter will be below normal, generally speaking. After doing this for 27 years, I do note that in most years (not all) the upper air pattern you see in November tends to stay in place through the cold weather season. Especially when you have no really strong El Nino or La Nina in progress (which is the case now). The pattern now in place is highlighted by a big block over Greenland, and accordingly a major upper air trough over the eastern U.S. This is what the negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is all about, and it allows cold air from the Yukon and Arctic region to spread southward into the eastern third of the U.S., including the southeast U.S. And, temperatures up in the source region are really cold for so early in the season. You can’t ignore those –40s up in northern Alaska. Some people (myself included) are cold weather fans, but I am afraid we will all feel the impact of high energy prices. Be ready for some very steep utility bills this winter.
So, what about snow? Hey, we live in a low latitude part of the world; significant winter storm events are supposed to be rare around here. We will be watching for signs of a sub-tropical jet forming under the cold upper tough in the eastern U.S. That is when the threat of snow or ice can show up here in Alabama. The GFS actually begins to show this pattern beginning the week after Thanksgiving. Pretty early in the season; I don't think we will need the snow shovels just yet, but stranger things have happened.
My gut feeling in this kind of pattern is that precipitation will be a little below normal this winter. We might be dealing with more "Alberta clipper" type systems coming from the northern stream. These have little moisture to work with, and usually don't bring much precipitation to Alabama. But, if a well defined southern storm track sets up from Mexico through the northern Gulf, watch out.
But remember, we are statistically overdue for a major ice storm here. Our last one (Birmingham metro and much of north-central Alabama) was in January 1982. Ice storms are basically no fun at all; you can't build a snowman or have a snowball fight. Travel becomes impossible, power outages can last for weeks, and the timber damage is tremendous. An ice storm is caused by an extended period of freezing rain, which is liquid precipitation falling with surface temperatures are colder than 32 degrees.
Enough said on this topic.... I need to get back to work on shorter term forecasts!
I really don't like to issue seasonal outlooks; it is all guesswork. But, with so much knowledge on the various patterns and oscillations around the globe now, it is certainly educated guesswork. Quite frankly, in my 20 hour a day world of being a husband and father, doing weather broadcasts on radio, TV, and the Internet, school programs, speeches to civic groups and churches, various ministry and community service work, etc… I simply don’t have time to do the necessary research for a decent seasonal outlook. When preparing a seasonal outlook, you really have to look closely at SSTs, the NAO, ENSO, PDO, MJO, MEI, EP, PNA, AO, OCS, and the QBO. Just the sound of all of that gives me a BTH... a Big Time Headache!
I do like to dabble in weather outlooks in the 7 to 20 day period, but not three months in advance.
Having said all of that….
I have to think temperatures here in Alabama this winter will be below normal, generally speaking. After doing this for 27 years, I do note that in most years (not all) the upper air pattern you see in November tends to stay in place through the cold weather season. Especially when you have no really strong El Nino or La Nina in progress (which is the case now). The pattern now in place is highlighted by a big block over Greenland, and accordingly a major upper air trough over the eastern U.S. This is what the negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is all about, and it allows cold air from the Yukon and Arctic region to spread southward into the eastern third of the U.S., including the southeast U.S. And, temperatures up in the source region are really cold for so early in the season. You can’t ignore those –40s up in northern Alaska. Some people (myself included) are cold weather fans, but I am afraid we will all feel the impact of high energy prices. Be ready for some very steep utility bills this winter.
So, what about snow? Hey, we live in a low latitude part of the world; significant winter storm events are supposed to be rare around here. We will be watching for signs of a sub-tropical jet forming under the cold upper tough in the eastern U.S. That is when the threat of snow or ice can show up here in Alabama. The GFS actually begins to show this pattern beginning the week after Thanksgiving. Pretty early in the season; I don't think we will need the snow shovels just yet, but stranger things have happened.
My gut feeling in this kind of pattern is that precipitation will be a little below normal this winter. We might be dealing with more "Alberta clipper" type systems coming from the northern stream. These have little moisture to work with, and usually don't bring much precipitation to Alabama. But, if a well defined southern storm track sets up from Mexico through the northern Gulf, watch out.
But remember, we are statistically overdue for a major ice storm here. Our last one (Birmingham metro and much of north-central Alabama) was in January 1982. Ice storms are basically no fun at all; you can't build a snowman or have a snowball fight. Travel becomes impossible, power outages can last for weeks, and the timber damage is tremendous. An ice storm is caused by an extended period of freezing rain, which is liquid precipitation falling with surface temperatures are colder than 32 degrees.
Enough said on this topic.... I need to get back to work on shorter term forecasts!
at the 9:53 PM current conditions.
onovan Clinton
on November 17, 2005, 10:47 pm
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