Mid-Morning Thoughts On Wedge/Freezing Rain For Saturday Morning

On a conference with our forecast guys this morning... the new 12Z data, especially the NAM model, is leaning toward some freezing rain now for east Alabama Saturday morning. See this:

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/etapllsup12/ptype72h.html

Don't want to jump overboard on this right now, but we will certainly have to look at raising the possibility of an icy period for east and northeast Alabama late Friday night and early Saturday morning based on this wedge situation.

Forecasting freezing rain with a wedge in place over east Alabama is almost impossible to do a few days in advance ... just too many variables. I have seen some of the most brilliant forecasters brought to their knees. I will admit it sure isn't my strength.

So... if you live in Gasden, Anniston, Roanoke, Heflin, Centre, and Jacksonville, just be aware that a relatively brief period of freezing rain and ice accumulation is not totally out of the question early Saturday. The good news is that the ground is relatively warm, so any icing would be limited to bridges and other exposed objects.

Will have more with the afternoon update and video a little later today...

Posted by  
on January 26, 2005, 12:32 pm
Please advise what "ZR" and "IP" stand for on the PRECIP TYPE NAM 72H FCST VALID 12Z 29JAN2005 display..I live in the Saks area of Anniston and I am trying to learn as much about weather systems as I can...THANKS for the outstanding job that ALL of you do in your weather center.
Regards....Dickie Lee

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Posted by  
on January 26, 2005, 2:04 pm
ZR means "freezing rain" and IP means "ice pellets"--the present day term for "sleet."

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