The affternoon video update is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Lets take a big deep breath and look at whats going on.
First off, I do believe there needs to be an open discussion in the weather community about what is a "winter storm" in Alabama. I was in Anniston doing a speech this morning, and as expected I noticed several people, including a number of senior adults with limited mobility, making plans for being stranded for multiple days. These people were making arrangements for runs to the grocery store for supplies, and trying to find relatives who would open their homes as "shelter". All of this was triggered by the winter storm watch message early this morning. This situation does not warrant that extreme level of preparation. It is a short term problem.
Once again, I do not fault anyone at the LOCAL NWS office. They do a wonderful job and we appreciate their work. I just don't agree on the criteria for a winter storm. This event tomorrow night does not meet the "James Spann" winter storm criteria in my mind. It is a situation where bridge icing can be a very real problem, but not much beyond that. Our friends up north would almost find this laughable that such a fuss is being stirred up.
No real change in the thinking since thing morning. Here are the highlights:
*Rain moves into Alabama from the west tomorrow, and cold air moves in from the east courtesy of the wedge. Rain could initially evaporate before reaching the ground, and that cooling could very well keep us in the 30s all day tomorrow. It will not be a pleasant day.
*Rain will be widespread tomorrow night over all of Alabama. During that time, temperatures should drop into the 29 to 32 degree range over eastern counties in the wedge, and bridge icing is likely. As J.B. mentioned, the general infrastructure and the soil is quite warm, so roads should only be wet. The bridges will be the problem. Some ice should also collect in trees and on power lines, but we do not expect enough accumulation for trees to fall, or for widespread power outages.
*The rain will be falling through a warm layer just off the surface, and those raindrops will take some time to freeze. Those warm rain drops can also keep temperatures from dropping to forecast levels. A very real possibility, and I have seen that happen many times before.
*The greatest chance of bridge icing will come from about 10:00 tomorrow night through 8:00 Saturday morning, and mainly east of a line from Huntsville to Pell City to Alexander City.
*It is a close call for Birmingham. We might see some bridge icing in Trussville and Moody, but none at all for Bessemer and Hoover. I expect the Birmingham Airport will get down to the 33 degree level and hold there most of the night.
Having said all of the above, wedge events are very difficult to forecast and deal with. Be ready for quick forecast changes. I have formally appointed J.B. Elliott as our official wedge officer.
Watch the video for the longer range stuff... still some potential for a powerhouse Gulf oF Mexico storm in the February 6-9 time frame. Very interesting stuff.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Lets take a big deep breath and look at whats going on.
First off, I do believe there needs to be an open discussion in the weather community about what is a "winter storm" in Alabama. I was in Anniston doing a speech this morning, and as expected I noticed several people, including a number of senior adults with limited mobility, making plans for being stranded for multiple days. These people were making arrangements for runs to the grocery store for supplies, and trying to find relatives who would open their homes as "shelter". All of this was triggered by the winter storm watch message early this morning. This situation does not warrant that extreme level of preparation. It is a short term problem.
Once again, I do not fault anyone at the LOCAL NWS office. They do a wonderful job and we appreciate their work. I just don't agree on the criteria for a winter storm. This event tomorrow night does not meet the "James Spann" winter storm criteria in my mind. It is a situation where bridge icing can be a very real problem, but not much beyond that. Our friends up north would almost find this laughable that such a fuss is being stirred up.
No real change in the thinking since thing morning. Here are the highlights:
*Rain moves into Alabama from the west tomorrow, and cold air moves in from the east courtesy of the wedge. Rain could initially evaporate before reaching the ground, and that cooling could very well keep us in the 30s all day tomorrow. It will not be a pleasant day.
*Rain will be widespread tomorrow night over all of Alabama. During that time, temperatures should drop into the 29 to 32 degree range over eastern counties in the wedge, and bridge icing is likely. As J.B. mentioned, the general infrastructure and the soil is quite warm, so roads should only be wet. The bridges will be the problem. Some ice should also collect in trees and on power lines, but we do not expect enough accumulation for trees to fall, or for widespread power outages.
*The rain will be falling through a warm layer just off the surface, and those raindrops will take some time to freeze. Those warm rain drops can also keep temperatures from dropping to forecast levels. A very real possibility, and I have seen that happen many times before.
*The greatest chance of bridge icing will come from about 10:00 tomorrow night through 8:00 Saturday morning, and mainly east of a line from Huntsville to Pell City to Alexander City.
*It is a close call for Birmingham. We might see some bridge icing in Trussville and Moody, but none at all for Bessemer and Hoover. I expect the Birmingham Airport will get down to the 33 degree level and hold there most of the night.
Having said all of the above, wedge events are very difficult to forecast and deal with. Be ready for quick forecast changes. I have formally appointed J.B. Elliott as our official wedge officer.
Watch the video for the longer range stuff... still some potential for a powerhouse Gulf oF Mexico storm in the February 6-9 time frame. Very interesting stuff.
Good work,webmaster!
on January 27, 2005, 4:00 pm
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