Next Week Looks Very Cold

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

The big story continues to be cold weather next week. Still looks like the coldest air so far this season, and a chance we reach the teens by the middle of next week, especially Wednesday morning. Nailing details will be hard to do, but cold is the big word.

SHORT TERM: A nice little snow storm is passing north of us this morning... the trailing front will bring scattered clouds and a fresh surge of cool air tonight and tomorrow. The snow cover continues to increase up north, meaning air from the Arctic/Polar region will not modify much by the time it reaches us when the "back door" is open next week.

WEEKEND: Rain will fall on Alabama this weekend. QPF still in the 1/4 to 1/2 inch range here; the most significant rain will probably come on Sunday. A thunderstorm will be possible on Sunday, but severe weather looks very unlikely. Still no sign of a big organized low in the Gulf...

HERE COMES THE COLD: I still think temperatures will on Monday, possibly reaching the 30s by afternoon. Then, on Tuesday highs in the 30s seem likely as the "Gates To The Yukon" will be open. Yeah, the 00Z and the 06Z runs are not as cold for us, but once again I totally distrust MOS products, and the thickness values on the runs. The 12Z run yesterday seemed to hit the nail on the head. Look at these CURRENT temperatures as I write this:

Glennallen, Alaska -27
Havre, Montana -9
Great Falls, Montana -6
Hettinger, North Dakota -6

I looked back on GFS MOS products for some of these nothern cities several days ago, and the GFS MOS was in some cases 20 degrees too warm! It really struggles with extreme variations from climatology in the cold season days in advance.

Back to next week, seems like Wednesday will be the coldest morning with the potential for teens across north Alabama. Snow flurries will be possible Monday night, possibly Tuesday, but once again the chance of any accumulating snow looks really small if we see snow flakes at all. The big story is the cold.

JUST FOR FUN: A storm system will come along in the December 8-10 time frame. The GFS shows thickness values warm enough for all rain. Remember, snow is very rare here in December, so trying to get a snow event this time of the year is hard. But again, the players will be on the field. You have the players, you can get the touchdown.

The 384 hour output of the 06Z GFS does show a nice snowstorm here (December 15), but only fools and strangers forecast storms of the 384 run of the GFS. But it does show what is just a possibility if you get the players on the field.

My friends Josh Johnson (chief meteorologist at WTOK-TV in Meridian, MS) and Brian Peters of our staff are putting together an interesting study on the correlation of snow events in Alabama and the warm and cool phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Seems like it snows much more often in December during these "warm" phases of the AMO (and we are in a warm phase now). I will post their findings when complete. But again, even in those warm phases snow events in December just don't happen on a frequent basis.

NOTES: Wow... thanks for all the supporting comments on the post below this one. Didn't mean to throw a pity party, I was just trying to show our level of commitment to the people of east Alabama. I have been getting nasty notes for the last 27 years, that is just part of this business. If you don't have a thick skin this is not a job for you! Thanks for the support... I really do appreciate it. An encourging word goes a long way.

I will be speaking to the Military Officers' Association today at Inverness Country Club... and will be back in the office for the next video and discussion by 3:30 p.m.!