The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
The deep south goes into the deep freeze next week.... that continues to be the big story.
TODAY: That vort max actually brought rain down to the surface... something I didn't expect. We actually had 0.01" here at our studio in Riverchase. Amazing rain drops reached the ground considering the dry air at the surface. That disturbance is long gone, and we will be clear and cold tonight. The GFS is showing a warm bias again... looks like we will have mid 20s for most places, with low 20s for the colder valleys.
WEEKEND RAIN: How about the new QPF guidance... it really goes crazy showing 4 inches of rain this weekend in northwest Alabama, with 2 to 4 inches elsewhere over north Alabama. Seems a little overdone to me... I think amounts of 1 inch are closer to being correct. Guess it depends on the strength of a wave that should form on the surface front on Sunday.
I do note that SPC has part of central and west Alabama in a slight risk of severe storms for day 3, or Saturday. Will do more research on this for tomorrow morning's video... at first glance the air seems too stable and severe parameters too low for any big problems.
COLD COLD COLD: Forget the GFS MOS... those numbers stink. We will forecast temperatures falling into the 30s Monday, with highs in the 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Yes, maybe a few flurries Monday night or Tuesday morning, but they should not amount to anything if they come. The cold is the story.
I am beginning to think clouds could hang around into Wednesday... and accordingly I have bumped up low temperature forecasts due to this. If we do go clear early Wednesday, we go into the teens. If we are cloudy, we will be in the 20 to 25 degree range. The clouds are the result of a southwest flow aloft coming from a developing storm system over the southwest U.S. HMMMM Very cold air at the surface; storm system in the southwest U.S. If this were January, I would really be concerned about the potential for an ice storm. But, this is December.
It will be very, very interesting to see what happens with the storm system at the end of next week. The latest GFS (12Z) runs the low from near Shreveport to Indianapolis, with a strip of 6 to 12 inches of snow from Dallas to St. Louis. Mostly rain here in Alabama if that scenario is correct.
The more I study this, I do see a window of opportunity for some icing problems Thursday of next week. The GFS shows a 1032 mb Arctic high over Kentucky, and rain moving into Alabama from the west. The thickness and 850 mb temperature profile suggest some risk of freezing rain over north Alabama if the precipitation makes it that far north. I AM NOT FORECASTING THIS NOW, but just saying it is a possibility. We are more than seven days away from the event. Remember, freezing rain is liquid precipitation that falls when the surface temperature is 32 degrees or colder, and can coat everything with ice.
LONG RANGE: We might have a nice moderating trend over the latter half of the month if the GFS is correct, but even then I think temperatures will remain below normal.
50s/30s GUYS: I get lots of e-mail from people telling me about agencies or weather companies forecasting highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s next week. This is probably based on automated forecasting using the GFS MOS products, which as I said at the top of this discussion, stink in the longer ranges during temperatures anomalies in the cold weather season.
Check out this paragraph from J.B.'s discussion over on the seven day page this afternoon:
"INTERESTING UPCOMING WEATHER: A huge high pressure system as strong as 1046 milibars will be settling down over the northern states during the next few days. Look for some increasingly cold temperatures with this system. A 1046 high is very strong, more akin to mid-winter. This morning the temperature drooped to 16 below zero at Mud Lake and 22 below at the Point 6 Radar Site--both in Montana. It was 12 below in Browning. McCarthy, Alaska had 38 below."
No way we have 50s and 30s next week.
I sure enjoyed speaking to the Military Officers' Association today at Inverness Country Club... I am so thankful for their service to our nation. The next map discussion video will be on the server bright and early tomorrow morning by 7:00 a.m.....
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
The deep south goes into the deep freeze next week.... that continues to be the big story.
TODAY: That vort max actually brought rain down to the surface... something I didn't expect. We actually had 0.01" here at our studio in Riverchase. Amazing rain drops reached the ground considering the dry air at the surface. That disturbance is long gone, and we will be clear and cold tonight. The GFS is showing a warm bias again... looks like we will have mid 20s for most places, with low 20s for the colder valleys.
WEEKEND RAIN: How about the new QPF guidance... it really goes crazy showing 4 inches of rain this weekend in northwest Alabama, with 2 to 4 inches elsewhere over north Alabama. Seems a little overdone to me... I think amounts of 1 inch are closer to being correct. Guess it depends on the strength of a wave that should form on the surface front on Sunday.
I do note that SPC has part of central and west Alabama in a slight risk of severe storms for day 3, or Saturday. Will do more research on this for tomorrow morning's video... at first glance the air seems too stable and severe parameters too low for any big problems.
COLD COLD COLD: Forget the GFS MOS... those numbers stink. We will forecast temperatures falling into the 30s Monday, with highs in the 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Yes, maybe a few flurries Monday night or Tuesday morning, but they should not amount to anything if they come. The cold is the story.
I am beginning to think clouds could hang around into Wednesday... and accordingly I have bumped up low temperature forecasts due to this. If we do go clear early Wednesday, we go into the teens. If we are cloudy, we will be in the 20 to 25 degree range. The clouds are the result of a southwest flow aloft coming from a developing storm system over the southwest U.S. HMMMM Very cold air at the surface; storm system in the southwest U.S. If this were January, I would really be concerned about the potential for an ice storm. But, this is December.
It will be very, very interesting to see what happens with the storm system at the end of next week. The latest GFS (12Z) runs the low from near Shreveport to Indianapolis, with a strip of 6 to 12 inches of snow from Dallas to St. Louis. Mostly rain here in Alabama if that scenario is correct.
The more I study this, I do see a window of opportunity for some icing problems Thursday of next week. The GFS shows a 1032 mb Arctic high over Kentucky, and rain moving into Alabama from the west. The thickness and 850 mb temperature profile suggest some risk of freezing rain over north Alabama if the precipitation makes it that far north. I AM NOT FORECASTING THIS NOW, but just saying it is a possibility. We are more than seven days away from the event. Remember, freezing rain is liquid precipitation that falls when the surface temperature is 32 degrees or colder, and can coat everything with ice.
LONG RANGE: We might have a nice moderating trend over the latter half of the month if the GFS is correct, but even then I think temperatures will remain below normal.
50s/30s GUYS: I get lots of e-mail from people telling me about agencies or weather companies forecasting highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s next week. This is probably based on automated forecasting using the GFS MOS products, which as I said at the top of this discussion, stink in the longer ranges during temperatures anomalies in the cold weather season.
Check out this paragraph from J.B.'s discussion over on the seven day page this afternoon:
"INTERESTING UPCOMING WEATHER: A huge high pressure system as strong as 1046 milibars will be settling down over the northern states during the next few days. Look for some increasingly cold temperatures with this system. A 1046 high is very strong, more akin to mid-winter. This morning the temperature drooped to 16 below zero at Mud Lake and 22 below at the Point 6 Radar Site--both in Montana. It was 12 below in Browning. McCarthy, Alaska had 38 below."
No way we have 50s and 30s next week.
I sure enjoyed speaking to the Military Officers' Association today at Inverness Country Club... I am so thankful for their service to our nation. The next map discussion video will be on the server bright and early tomorrow morning by 7:00 a.m.....
on December 1, 2005, 3:37 pm
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