Mid-Morning Thoughts

January 28, 2005, 8:56 am
Posted by James Spann in Winter Weather
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Murphy's Law has been in full effect here this morning; equipment issues, Internet connectivity issues, sinus issues. Most of the issues have finally been resolved and I finally have a little time to look at weather data...

Some random thoughts on tonight's event:

*J.B. Elliott is a little more pessimistic for extreme east Alabama... he has some concern that ice might affect some roads and not just the bridges. He is our voice of reason and experience in the office and he has dealt with many wedge events in his long career.

*Looks like the guys at NCEP have only extreme northeast Alabama in their "ice bullseye" for tonight and early tomorrow. It mostly covers north Georgia:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_pice_gt_25.gif

*The wedge is moving in. Here are some late observations from east Alabama:

Mt. Cheaha 31
Mentone 33
Collinsville 36
Wadley 39

*Rain continues to slowly increase to the west, but it will have a hard time reaching the ground over central and east Alabama until late today. Just got a report of sleet from Clay. The radar echoes look like some sleet is indeed mixed in with the rain in spots.

Will be watching the new 12Z model guidance with interest as it rolls in within the hour.


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Posted by Todd  
on January 28, 2005, 9:36 am
Have you noticed the dew points in the east falling rapidly this morning? ATL, COL GA, and AU are all at 5 deg. What does that indicate for us in the East?

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Posted by  
on January 28, 2005, 10:29 am
Todd, that's just the cold, dry air associated with the air mass in the Northeast being "wedged" in here from the east. As the rain falls through this layer of air today, it will not only saturate the air with time but will also cool the temperatures by a process called evaporative cooling. That's why there are winter weather concerns for eastern Alabama.

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Posted by Todd  
on January 28, 2005, 10:42 am
Thanks Fred. I was curious if the actual DP was lower or about what was anticipated. Our area is on the fringe with this storm and a temp swing of a couple of degrees could make the difference in rain/ice.

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Posted by  
on January 28, 2005, 11:08 am
Hey Fred what kind of weather stuff do you have?

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Posted by  
on January 28, 2005, 11:08 am
If this evaporative cooling reduces the temperature one degee for every one degree the dewpoint rises, the temperature will be below freezing in more areas than currently forecast.

Could that happen????

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