A Challenging Forecast

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Lets begin with some observations up north as I type this (around 5:45 a.m.):

Eagle, Alaska -32
Mayo, Canada (NW Territory) -31
Huron, South Dakoka -12
Grand Forks, North Dakota -4
Decatur, Alabama 27

First thing I always like to do on a tough forecast morning is "look out the window"!

So many issues today... lets take them in chronological order:

*SLEET LATE TONIGHT?: Clouds will move into the state quickly tonight, and some precipitation could begin after midnight. We might see a little sleet initially tomorrow morning; maybe even a brief period of freezing rain or drizzle over the northwest corner of the state. If this happens, it should not pose any travel problems in my opinion.

*WEEKEND RAIN AND STORMS: We will have the dual threat of heavy rain and strong storms. SPC has a slight risk over us both tomorrow and Sunday. Severe weather parameters are pretty marginal... seems like the storms tomorrow night be elevated, but more surface based on Sunday.

Here are some parameters for Sunday evening at 6:00:

CAPE: 649
Lifted Index: -1.8
0 to 3 km Helicity: 209
850 mb wind speed: 29 knots
500 mb wind speed: 59 knots

Just hard to get excited at this point about severe storms with numbers like that; the main threat would come from strong winds and hail if we have them.

Rain totals could be fairly heavy with a band of rain and storms becoming almost stationary over the northern half of the state. The QPF guidance suggests 2 to 3 inches of rain for most places, with a bullseye of 3.6" near Hamilton. Model extraction is not as aggressive with the rain totals; they show amounts closer to one inch. One way or another it does look like we will see some beneficial rain over the weekend.

NEXT WEEK'S COLD: The rain should end Monday morning, followed by a shot of very cold air. Again, we reject the GFS MOS guidance and go well under those numbers. Temperatures should fall Monday, reaching the upper 30s by mid to late afternoon. You can't ignore the chance of a few flurries Monday evening, but that won't be an issue... the cold air is the story.

It looks like the cold air will be pretty shallow as it gets in here, and the GFS simply can't handle that with its resolution. The cold air might be only a couple of thousand feet deep, so it really won't show up even on an 850 mb chart (5,000 feet).

I will continue to forecast highs in the 35 to 40 degree range on Tuesday and Wednesday based on the fact that the air will be coming across a vast snow field, and it won't have much time to modify. Winds aloft will remain out of the west or southwest, and I think clouds might prevent us from reaching the teens Wednesday morning. The sky might remain cloudy at times on Tuesday and Wednesday, but precipitation on those days looks unlikely.

STORM AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK: If this was January I would really be concerned about an ice storm here Thursday and Friday of next week. But, this is not January, this is December. We rarely have problems with ice and snow this early in the season.

A storm is forecast to form in the western Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night, moving over to the Georgia coast by Friday. Shallow cold air will be in place over Alabama, but I am not convinced it will be cold enough for freezing rain and ice. It sure is possible, but I would say unlikely at this time. Worst case scenario is a long period of freezing rain Thursday or Thursday night with a brief change to snow on the back side of the storm Friday. But, once again, the most likely setup is a cold rain, with maybe a few flurries on the back side. We are walking a fine line on this one... so keep an eye on the blog in coming days. It is a very interesting setup.

MORE COLD: Another surge of cold air moves in here the following weekend (December 10-11).

LONG RANGE: The GFS shows temperature moderation here in the December 15-18 time frame, but another whopper 1044 mb high shows up at the same time over the Yukon. Wonder if that can make it down here in time for Christmas.

THANKS to all of our viewers for giving us a great November ratings period. Our newscasts are a solid number one at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00. Once again, being a market leader is a big responsibility and we don't take that lightly. We will continue to work hard to keep your trust.

I will have the next map discussion video available by 3:30 with other notes as needed through the day...