The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
This is quite a forecast... I am getting a little concerned about some freezing rain problems here late next week. More about that later...
WEEKEND RAIN: QPF still spitting out 2-3 inches of rain for north Alabama this weekend. The NAM extraction shows 1.31" for Birmingham. Looks like a good soaking. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms tomorrow and Sunday, but I can't really find anyone in our office that is excited about the chance of a big severe weather problem. I do note the NAM moves the CAPE up to 711 tomorrow afternoon, so there could be a few good surface based storms around. But, wind profiles suggest a minimal tornado threat. If we have any severe storms, the main issue would most likely be from hail.
NEXT WEEK'S COLD: The rain should end by midday Monday, and temperatures should begin to drop Monday afternoon. I still think we reach the upper 30s Monday evening after starting off around 50 Monday morning. There could be a new flurries perhaps over north Alabama, but the big story is the change to cold weather.
I still think the GFS MOS is clueless next week... One reason is the cold air moving in here should be quite shallow. We will have to really work hard to reach 40 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday. Enough clouds should be around to keep us out of the teens, but we will be way down in the 20s during the early morning hours. Coldest so far this season.
WINTER STORM THREAT? I have growing concern over a storm developing in the northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. If this were January, I would really be concerned over an ice storm across the deep south. But, this is December, and winter storms are pretty rare this early in the season.
A cold, 1040 mb high should be sitting around Kansas City as a deepening surface low forms in the Gulf. We will have a shallow layer of cold air in place here in Alabama, probably much colder than the models understand. I don't think the air will be deep enough to support snow; if we were to have winter weather problems most likely it would be in the form of freezing rain.
I sure don't have the guts to forecast any ice this far in advance, but just be aware it is not out of the question. For now we will mention a cold rain Thursday and Thursday night, followed by another shot of cold air over that following weekend.
Have a great weekend and spend some good quality time with your family. I will try to make a few posts here tomorrow and Sunday as all of this unfolds. There won't be much boredom in our office for the next seven days for sure...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
This is quite a forecast... I am getting a little concerned about some freezing rain problems here late next week. More about that later...
WEEKEND RAIN: QPF still spitting out 2-3 inches of rain for north Alabama this weekend. The NAM extraction shows 1.31" for Birmingham. Looks like a good soaking. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms tomorrow and Sunday, but I can't really find anyone in our office that is excited about the chance of a big severe weather problem. I do note the NAM moves the CAPE up to 711 tomorrow afternoon, so there could be a few good surface based storms around. But, wind profiles suggest a minimal tornado threat. If we have any severe storms, the main issue would most likely be from hail.
NEXT WEEK'S COLD: The rain should end by midday Monday, and temperatures should begin to drop Monday afternoon. I still think we reach the upper 30s Monday evening after starting off around 50 Monday morning. There could be a new flurries perhaps over north Alabama, but the big story is the change to cold weather.
I still think the GFS MOS is clueless next week... One reason is the cold air moving in here should be quite shallow. We will have to really work hard to reach 40 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday. Enough clouds should be around to keep us out of the teens, but we will be way down in the 20s during the early morning hours. Coldest so far this season.
WINTER STORM THREAT? I have growing concern over a storm developing in the northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. If this were January, I would really be concerned over an ice storm across the deep south. But, this is December, and winter storms are pretty rare this early in the season.
A cold, 1040 mb high should be sitting around Kansas City as a deepening surface low forms in the Gulf. We will have a shallow layer of cold air in place here in Alabama, probably much colder than the models understand. I don't think the air will be deep enough to support snow; if we were to have winter weather problems most likely it would be in the form of freezing rain.
I sure don't have the guts to forecast any ice this far in advance, but just be aware it is not out of the question. For now we will mention a cold rain Thursday and Thursday night, followed by another shot of cold air over that following weekend.
Have a great weekend and spend some good quality time with your family. I will try to make a few posts here tomorrow and Sunday as all of this unfolds. There won't be much boredom in our office for the next seven days for sure...
As interested as you are in the weather, I wondered if it was meterology!!
on December 2, 2005, 3:00 pm
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