Severe Weather Possible?

SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE?
The Storm Prediction Center does have the northwestern quarter of Alabama included in their Day One Outlook (today) for a slight risk of severe weather. The outlook is generally along and west of I-59. Thinderstorms are expected to intensify later today well to the west of Alabama in an unstable airmass. This activity is expected to become severe this evening over parts of extreme eastern Louisiana/Arkansas and move into Mississippi and western Tennessee, and eventually into Alabama. The SPC feels that severe storms are possible this evening into Northwest Alabama. There seems to be an enhaced area for possible severe weather centered right on the Alabama/Mississppi border in Northwest Alabama and Northeast Mississippi this evening.

The main threat should be from damaging winds, although large hail is possible and the idea of a tornado cannot be ruled out.

That means everyone should pay close attention to later forecasts and be on the alert for severe weather this evening and overnight.

The activity should weaken late tonight as it move into Georgia.

The chance for severe weather looks like it will be pushed further southward on Sunday as the cold front we are talking about may be a little further south than earlier expected. So for tomorrow, Central and South Central Alabama will have the chance for severe weather.
Posted by   www
on December 3, 2005, 8:31 am
Current dew point in Bluff Park is 29 degrees (8:30am), it is hard to imagine a rise to 60+dp by the end of the day. Phew! That would be some advection :)
73,
Rod, N1YZ

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Posted by  
on December 3, 2005, 8:48 am
How is there going to be instability with no heat.. or sun breaks.. or moisture????

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Posted by  
on December 3, 2005, 8:57 am
scott i was curious about that myself - would love to know the answer :-)

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Posted by  
on December 3, 2005, 9:05 am
Stephanie... I don't know if it was you (sorry for the abrupt subject change) but someone mentioned a Black Warrior something something Christmas parade that sounded REALLY cool. Do you (or anyone else) know where that is? I'd love to go!

Scott: Instability is a tricky thing. While those things you mentioned are important, none (well, hard to say moisture isn't crucial to instability) are essential. As long as you have warmER and wettER air under colder and drier air, you have an unstable situation.

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Posted by  
on December 3, 2005, 9:29 am
No clue where that would be Andy - it did sound very cool - I hate that I am missing Alabaster's parade. Thanks for clearing up the instability question. My MIL is comong over and hates bad weather, so it helps me to know how to explain things to make her feel a little better

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Posted by  
on December 3, 2005, 9:56 am
Well as far as unstable air well it looks like we have that to our west and I think in time it will move in here. Because if you notice the clouds are coming from the southwest so I can't but think the warmer temps and higher dewpoints will be here later on. So the best thing to do is to wait and see what will happen.

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Posted by  
on December 3, 2005, 10:03 am
Looks like I have nothing to do this weekend but watch football and potential storms. Sounds like a fun weekend to me.

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Posted by John T.  
on December 3, 2005, 10:26 am
Sunshine just helps to heat up the air more quickly. Some systems can bring there own atmosphere just ahead of them. That has happened here before a couple of times. As long as the temps. can get to about 63 & up, the dewoint about the same, oh yes you can have severe weather. Even with clouds all day long.

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Posted by John T.  
on December 3, 2005, 10:30 am
Hey Andy! That Christmas On The River. (Warrior River) Tonight. I think it starts @ 17:00 or 5:00 p.m.. A lady by the name of Monica had a write up about it yesterday evening on the blog. Go back & check it out buddy. Its a nice show, just cold down there.

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Posted by John T.  
on December 3, 2005, 10:38 am
Andy, go back up look at the article "Wet weakend then cold" it has the information.

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