Watching Developments For Thursday

December 5, 2005, 3:37 pm
Posted by James Spann in Weather Discussions
Rating: 0/5   Votes : 0
The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

A little late in posting this afternoon... rough traffic coming in from Vincent Elementary. By the way, look for the 4th graders on our KIDCAM at 5:00. A great audience today.

TONIGHT: We will maintain a forecast low of 22. The NAM has 23; most spots will be somewhere between 20 and 25. Colder valleys might see upper teens if the wind can drop off.

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: We continue to reject the MOS products... temperatures will be colder. The weather will be dry, although clouds will begin to roll in here Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

THURSDAY: I have not seen enough evidence for us to change our forecast for Thursday. Basically a cold rain with some sleet for the I-20 corridor, including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston, and a wintry mix for areas north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. There is a real chance of bridge icing up there early Thursday morning, and a chance some snow could be involved later in the day as the cold air gets deeper and the surface low begins to move northeast. I would not be shocked if Mentone has a couple of inches of snow on the ground by Friday morning (atop Lookout Mountain, over 1,000 feet). For travelers, I think the main issue will be bridge icing Thursday morning, and then again Thursday night over the northern third of the state.

I can't rule out some icy spots as far south as I-20 early Thursday morning, and again Thursday night... but we are still talking mostly rain here.

Needless to say, stay tuned!

FRIDAY: Maybe some flurries early in the day, followed by a clearing sky.

The weekend will feature dry weather with moderating temperatures. BUT... I doubt if temperatures warm up like on the GFS MOS products.

The 12Z GFS brings a nice rain-producing storm for Alabama early next week (one week from today)... lets watch this and see it if shows up on the 00Z run tonight. I am not very trusting of the GFS right now. If by chance the GFS is correct, there might be a change to some snow on the back side of this one Monday night or Tuesday morning of next week.

And, note J.B.'s post below on those temperatures up north. I sure think our warming trend this weekend might be short lived. I think on average temperatures this month will be well below normal....

Next video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...
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Posted by  
on December 5, 2005, 6:34 pm
here is the latest QPF... with the bulls eye over tuscaloose with 1.4 inches of precip....

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

so the qpf has increased the moisture from the last run across the area to about one inch.. Now has any of the other models changed their way of thinking in regards to the temperature??

Here is the Nam at 84hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/fp0
_084.shtml

and here is the gfs at the same time.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0
_084.shtml

Notice that the gfs isnt showing as much moisture, but has it moving out faster and the colder air back in here a little sooner....

which one will be correct???cant say for sure but one thing is for certain... It will be a close call... SOme of the things that we want to look at is the variables that we know the models arent good at reading...

One ... the snowfields ..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/DATA/cursnow.gif

Here is the current snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere...

Two ... climatology... now as we know , the gfs is warm biased ... It is showing 50's as highs for tomorrow.... We know that will not happen... We will get maybe into the low 40's now that is a 10 degree difference...Now as for thursday... It has a forcast high of 48 .. so lets drop those #'s by 10 degree's and we are in for trouble..... I know that this is not science , but it is one train of thought... It might be a train going down a one way track headed for a cliff, but it is one way of looking at it... Now I dont know what I am doing , and i have little training in met.... but I believe we may have some problems as fart as bridges and overpasses, and areas just north of bham.. Maybe like Jasper, to Oneonta , up on those mountains to places like mentone , and cloudmont... they will more than likely see some travel problems...

Lets just sit back , not go crazy, no need to go out and buy up all the Milk and bread...Dont understand the logic behind that one myself.. Its not like we would be stranded for a long period, even if it were a worse case scenario.. But it will be fun to watch...


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Posted by  
on December 5, 2005, 7:17 pm
it will be interesting to see what it reads tommorrow........

in the meantime, y'all have a good night and stay warm!!

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Posted by  
on December 5, 2005, 7:27 pm
Rusty - I don't get the milk and bread logic either.
Several years ago I worked in a grocery store and whenever there was a snow/ice threat the milk and bread were gone, of course, but also the shredded cheese. Strange things out there.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on December 5, 2005, 7:32 pm
hmmmm....
snow ice cream with cheese topping.
Yummy

Reply to this comment
Posted by Josh  
on December 5, 2005, 7:35 pm
Here is the current look at the current setup at 6:00pm about an 1½ ago:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/ima
ges/gfs_slp_006l.gif

Here is a more detailed look at the 18z 84 hour run for 12:00AM on 12-9-05 (That's late Thursday night or very early Friday morning if you want to call it that.)
GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/ima
ges/gfs_slp_084l.gif
NAM:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/ima
ges/nam_slp_084l.gif

Here is an Interactive Snow Cover website:
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html?var=fract_sn
ow_cover_d&snap=1&o9=1&bgvar=dem

From NWS HUN:
Then comes thursday...Low pressure is progged to move along the
gulf coast and depending on what model you like...could be either
a significant rain...freezing rain or snow event. NAM shows a very
strong southerly 8h jet...this would keep a good warm layer in
the mid levels which depending on what the sfc temps are...would
be a rain or freezing rain event. GFS shows much colder temps all
the way up the atmosphere with model soundings hinting at either
rain or snow. for the moment we have rain or snow in the
grids...will keep this wording for now. did remove the chance of
pcpn for wednesday night...based on model qpf fields and up the
pops a tad for thursday.

From NWS BMX
Cool temperatures will continue on tuesday and wednesday. on
wednesday night...this is when things get interesting.

During late wednesday night...an inverted trof in association
with an upper level wave will begin to approach the forecast from
the southwest. As this trof approaches...plenty of moisture will
begin to move in. Both the ETA and GFS are very aggressive with the
moisture and rain. As of the 12z model runs...the leading edge of
this rain will approach our northwest zones early thursday morning
when temperatures will be at their lowest. Looking at the gfs 1000-
850 critical values...The thicknesses are there to support snow
but the 850 are at or just below freezing across our northwest
zones. It could flip flop from snow to freezing rain. Then as the
systems continues to move northeast plenty of rain will move
across central alabama. By thursday afternoon...this inverted trof
will turn into a full fledge surface low pressure. as the low
exits the area late thursday...we will have to watch the wrap
around moisture over the colder airmass that could bring some
snow to our extreme northern zones. As always...being this far
out...my confidence still remains low to add it in the forecast.
Although confidence is increasing as models begin to agree with each
other. but for now...just rain wording during wednesday night and
thursday.

Long term...Friday through Monday.

The next weather system to keep an eye on will be another surface
low pressure system that will develop along the northern gulf.
Cold air still remains in place during this time period. Latest
long range GFS shows the low moving too far to our southeast to
cause any problems to our cwa. Being that is this far out...timing
and trajectory can change. So we will keep an eye on things.


Just thought y'all would like to see that.




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Posted by  
on December 5, 2005, 7:38 pm
i know- bread i can understand - great for pb&j sandwiches during a power outage. i am a water drinker myself, allergic to milk, so this has never been an issue for me. this is going to sound really strange - but when the power went out for as long as it did during the blizzard, we had snow on the ground for i know a week, my dad just stuck the milk jug (along with the rest of the perishables) out in the snow........ :-)

Reply to this comment
Posted by AC  
on December 5, 2005, 7:57 pm
Hi all!! I will wait to see what the morning blog report says, but may go ahead and make one adjustment in my schedule, just in case!! Will hit the store tomorrow, but I need milk tomorrow anyway, not just incase!! My 5 yr.old and 2 yr.old drink it up!! And Stephanie, my mom stuck all our perishables out in the snow too during the 93 blizzard...quite funny to open the patio door to get the milk!! This is all neat to watch...I'm out for the evening..just took a final and am done!! Stay warm all!!

AC

By the way, I'm more concerned because I'm in Cullman, so I think I'm a bit more north than some of you....safe driving all!!

Reply to this comment
Posted by Margie Richardson - Rainbow City  
on December 5, 2005, 8:25 pm
Bread & milk must be the "bad weather" staple food (I wonder if the weather people are getting kickbacks from the bread and milk companies some how....just kidding). Growing up in the Florida Panhandle...that is what we ran to the store for during our hurricane preparations. The only difference between here and Florida is the firewood I order up when winter weather is knocking on the door :) BRING ON THE SNOW!!!!!!!

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Posted by Josh  
on December 5, 2005, 8:33 pm
I want to see some snow this year; I hope Old Man Winter blows in some cold air some time this winter :)

-----------
---SNOW----
--------------------
-------------------------
*…*…*.*..*…**..*.
**.*..**…*.**.*.**.*.**.*
.*.**.****.**.***.*…*.*.*.**.


Reply to this comment
Posted by Josh  
on December 5, 2005, 8:55 pm
………………………………….
………...…______…………….
…………-………….-…………..
………...|……………|…………
………. {,----…..----,..}………
………...|.~-...|.|..-~..|………..
………….\.....\../......./……….
…………..\...\----/…/………..
……………..-------…………..
…………………………………
ABC 33/40 weather center is the best :)


Reply to this comment
Posted by Josh  
on December 5, 2005, 8:55 pm
………………………………….
………...…______…………….
…………-………….-…………..
………...|……………|…………
………. {,----…..----,..}………
………...|.~-...|.|..-~..|………..
………….\.....\../......./……….
…………..\...\----/…/………..
……………..-------…………..
…………………………………
ABC 33/40 weather center is the best :)


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Posted by  
on December 5, 2005, 9:13 pm
Steph , that dance of yours is working... i think I saw a few flakes here on the blog..Keep up the good work....

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Posted by  
on December 5, 2005, 10:55 pm
Hey Rusty I think you are right Stephanie must be doing something right HAHAHA.

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Posted by  
on December 5, 2005, 11:14 pm
tee hee hee!!! i knew i woke up for a reason!!!

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Posted by John T.  
on December 5, 2005, 11:15 pm
Josh that was really neat and original. Looked like it took a little time. Put a smile on my face. All have a goodnight!

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Posted by  
on December 5, 2005, 11:18 pm
looks like we have an artist on board - always wondered how to do that :->

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Posted by   www
on December 6, 2005, 12:03 am
Good post John T.

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