One of the best tropical weather experts in the world, Dr. William Gray from Colorado State University, issued his outlook for the 2006 hurricane season yesterday. The 2005 season just ended last week, and oddly enough we still have a hurricane in the eastern Atlantic here in early December, Epsilon. But, for the U.S. mainland the season is over for sure with cool sea water temperatures near the coast. Here is an excerpt from Dr. Gray’s outlook:
Information obtained through November 2005 indicates that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2006 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 45 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent above the long-period average.
We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2006 to be about 195 percent of the long-term average. This forecast is based on our recently developed 6-11 month extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 52 years of past data. These include five selective measures of September-November North Atlantic and Pacific surface pressure and 500 mb height fields and a measure of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). All predictors are calling for an active season. Analog predictors have also been utilized.
The influences of El Niño conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We do not expect El Niño conditions during the 2006 season. It is more likely that neutral or even La Niña conditions will develop.
Information obtained through November 2005 indicates that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2006 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 45 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent above the long-period average.
We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2006 to be about 195 percent of the long-term average. This forecast is based on our recently developed 6-11 month extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 52 years of past data. These include five selective measures of September-November North Atlantic and Pacific surface pressure and 500 mb height fields and a measure of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). All predictors are calling for an active season. Analog predictors have also been utilized.
The influences of El Niño conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We do not expect El Niño conditions during the 2006 season. It is more likely that neutral or even La Niña conditions will develop.
on December 6, 2005, 10:15 pm
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on December 7, 2005, 1:06 am
I've never been to college a day in my life......but am more competent and accurate than most pro meteorologists I've seen on Atlanta tv or met online; and the reasons why?
1) I began dedicated research into weather forecasting and storms at age twelve; 31 years ago....
2) I conducted my research with a passion; wanted to know EVERYTHING....wanted to know why a storm occurred...and how to spot the atmospheric ingrediants coming together to spawn storms in the future....
3) Instead of coming on forums/ blogs, etc and belittling/ harrassing pro's such as Mr Spann....I instead read their posts; learned many tricks of the trade I didn't know before coming online. I was a pretty good amateur forecaster in 1999....but after learning about model bias's and how to properly interpret model data AND combine it with what I already knew about the atmosphere, climatology.....today I'm an extremely accurate and reliable forecaster. That's why I know Thursday will likely be a cold, wet and raw winter day in Atlanta, GA.....but we won't witness an ice storm or snowflakes flying.
Just my 0.02 cents worth...
Perry
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