Messy And Cold Weather Maps

The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

The amount of cold air on the map this morning is downright amazing for early December. J.B. Elliott has provided this info:

At 5:00 am CST and only using stations that report hourly from the Lower 48:
*Lowest temperature -28 at Jordan, Montana
*80% of land area freezing or lower
*17% of land area zero or lower
*Highest SFC pressure 1043 MB at Jordan, Montana

Somehow we still think we will escape winter weather problems here tomorrow with only a cold rain across Alabama. Still an outside shot of flurries over the northeast corner of the state tomorrow night, but most spots will not see snow flakes. But, the storm will create some big problems elsewere. A few notes:

*DALLAS: I used to work at KDFW-TV, Channel 4, in Dallas as the chief meteorologist in the mid 80s, and I still watch the weather closely out there. Winter storm warning continues for today. D/FW Airport is at 41 as I write this, but they should drop into the 20s later today with freezing rain changing to snow. Amounts should be fairly light, but enough to make for a very messy drive home this afternoon in the metroplex. Up in the panhandle, Amarillo has dropped to 7 degrees with light snow.

*MEMPHIS/NASHVILLE: Beginning to look like the best chance of snow/ice problems will be north of these Tennessee cities tomorrow. Maybe a little bridge icing, but nothing too serious. A wintry mix will be more likely over north Arkansas, and far north Tennessee and Kentucky.

*CAROLINAS: A messy ice event will unfold for many areas north and west of I-85, where freezing rain is likely. Classic wedge setup here where the cold air is very shallow. Some ice might be found down into northeast Georgia as well in the wedge.

OUR WEEKEND: I will say up front the forecast is difficult this weekend and through all of next week, with great potential for busts along the way. You can't ignore the cold air over the U.S.... any slight nudge of that will make it much, much colder than MOS suggests here. Having said that...

An upper feature swings through, north of Alabama, on Saturday. The air will be too dry for any precipitation. The GFS suggests it will nudge some colder air in here Sunday; I probably need to lower temperatures for Sunday. The weekend still looks dry.

NEXT WEEK: Very complex. Models not playing well together. The GFS (06Z run) brings a little rain in here on Tuesday, and then again on Wednesday/Wednesday night. It shows that second impulse phasing up with another one to the north, and bringing in a blast of cold air back in here Thursday and Friday of next week. The 540 line drops to the Gulf coast Friday December 16. I think there is no doubt we turn much colder at some point over the latter half of next week, but the details are tough to call. Nothing that really grabs our attention to make snow fans happy, but there is some hint of flurries with the shot of cold air at the end of the week. Will be anxious to see the 12Z runs.

LONG RANGE: Temperatures should remain below normal for the rest of the month, generally speaking. The NAO and the AO are generally negative across the board. And, once again, you simpy cannot ignore temperatures right now over North America.

EPSILON: Are you kidding me? This thing is still a hurricane in the Atlantic about 1200 miles southwest of the Azores, moving southwest. This thing might be around at Christmas if this keeps up.

I will have the afternoon video on the server by 3:30 today...