Late Morning Progress Report on Alabama Rain

It did not arrive as early as we originally expected in Central Alabama.

The rain that we thought would spread north from the Gulf of Mexico has been sliding off to the northeast into Southeast Alabama and South Georgia.

However, the rain we expected from the west is moving into the state. It has already overspread part of Northwest Alabama.

At 11:30 am, it was raining as far east as Decatur, Double Springs and Fayette. Very light rain or sprinkles reported as far east as the Birmingham area.

Even up in extreme North Alabama, temperatures have moderated into the upper 40s, so little or no danger of any icing.
Posted by Lianne  
on December 8, 2005, 11:51 am
Yep, it's here. A very cold rain is pouring down in Winfield (Marion county).

Brrrrrrrr.

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Posted by  
on December 8, 2005, 12:03 pm
Hey Rusty where are you???? It is time for the 12Z run let's see what it is saying now about next week and beyond.

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Posted by  
on December 8, 2005, 12:04 pm
Im here.. Sorry ..Ill get on it...

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Posted by  
on December 8, 2005, 12:08 pm
Thanks I knew would not let us down, now the rain I see on radar is moving up this way from the SW from Jackson MS, don't know if we will get a lot of rain.

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Posted by  
on December 8, 2005, 12:17 pm
Looks like Stephanie might be MIA today HAHAHA or she is just so busy I have not herd from her on the E-mails I sent. That is ok I know you are busy.

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Posted by  
on December 8, 2005, 12:38 pm
Had a light sprinkle earlier here in Oxford. Nothing now though. Seems a bit cooler than earlier this morning. I haven't checked the temp lately, but it was 47 when I left home in J'ville.

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Posted by Mikey  
on December 8, 2005, 12:46 pm
The temperature in Birmingham has actually risen to 50 degrees.

Where is the cold air?

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Posted by Mikey  
on December 8, 2005, 12:47 pm
And it's 57 degrees in Tuscaloosa.

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Posted by  
on December 8, 2005, 1:02 pm
Hey Mikey the cold air will come in once the storm moves north east of us, right now we are on the southern end of the storm so the wind is from the south and SE that is why the temperature has warmed up a little.

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Posted by  
on December 8, 2005, 1:12 pm
here we go .. Here is the QPF valid 12 z thru monday 12 z.... It looks like we are in that dry slot James explained this morning...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

Now lts look at the current radar...:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/doppler.html

We do have a rain mass headed our way.,... Now the question is : what is going to be the overall pic for tinight into in the morning... Well I dont know... Im not James, but I can make a guess...Lets look at the current #s around the central alabama area....

http://www.wallysweather.com/index.php?forecast=statehourly&state=
al


as you can see thanks to the hourly roundup from wallysweather ...All of our temperatures are well above freezing at the surface, which will keep us out of trouble for today...Now lets look at some of the regional temperatures....

Memphis is reporting a cold 35 with light rain, while nashville is showing 42 with rain, and tupelo mississippi is coming in with lt rain and 45.... The whole idea here is, throughout the region, we are not seeing any drastic drops in temperature , that would lead us down the road that was seen by Tx and Ok yesterday.... Now Lets get into the 12z run of the gfs....
Here we are tonight... And notice the thickness values are still above the 540 mark...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0
_012.shtml


As we move into tomorrow morning :
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0
_018.shtml


Now as for the Wedge, I dont think we will run into any major issues , even in the NE corner of the state with the wedge, so no problems tonight...

Now lets get into some of the future days...

Well lets take a look at the week end... Sat:
Dry and temps into the low 50s
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0
_066.shtml


Sunday we see that short wave on the 500mb Vort, Ht hour: 066 over the memphis area that will pull some of that colder air down in here on Sunday:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0
_072.shtml


Now we will move forward to monday night into tuesday and we see on the 500mb Vort, Ht hour: 138 another wave of energy rotating down through the jetstream and the GFS is showing enough moisture to spit out some light snow flurries over the Tennessee Valley...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0
_138.shtml


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0
_144.shtml


We will just have to look at that as time goes along... Nothing to get too excited about..

Now onto the important stuff..Like what is going to be going on around The Day...Christmas .. We have plenty o folks here in the Blog ...DXoing everything in their power and some things just crazy... Im one of em, and I am begging for some snow, and that is why I loke to look at those down range VOODOO models..Cause if we cant see it on the ground , we might as well look at it on the models... Well here we go.. Hold on to you shoes...

Now let me set this up here... We have a poossible low developing down in the Gulf and a H out over Utah that is pushing the cold air deep down into the south...Now this could make for some interesting weather

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0
_324.shtml


Now lets get specific .,... well specific for being out WONDER LAND... thats my new term... I think James has put a trademark on VOODOO.. so Ill go with WONDERLAND...

Here we are at 372 hors .. Just a few days from Christmas and what do my wondering eyes see... Well look at it for yourself....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0
_372.shtml


And here again .. here we are Friday the 23rd...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0
_384.shtml


So there we go .. Im Dreaming , Of a White Christmas.....

HAve fun with the weather .. cause we know it isnt going to cooperate with us....


God Bless





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Posted by Mikey  
on December 8, 2005, 1:47 pm
If the models change every 6-12 hours, how can they be ""valid" for more than that, except to FORECAST trends?

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Posted by  
on December 8, 2005, 1:53 pm
Mikey, they cant .. And you know what ... everything on this run , will I guarantee , will be different in one way or another on the 18z run..But we are having fun....At leaste I am ... Thats why i love hanging out in here...

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Posted by  
on December 8, 2005, 1:21 pm
Thanks Rusty now if we can get everyone on this blog to start praying for snow than we just might get it. So come on us bloggers let's see what we can do.

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Posted by  
on December 8, 2005, 1:37 pm
If we could just get James and the rest to flush some ice cubes and put a spoon under their pillow... we might be in luck.... JB come on helpo us out ...For Little Miss Molly.. We want to see how she would react to a good snow.. Has she ever seen any snow??

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Posted by J.B. Elliott  
on December 8, 2005, 1:59 pm
She saw a few tiny flakes last winter and she leaped off the ground and tried to grab each one individually.

To answer your earlier question about the 1982 ice storm. It was well forecast...in fact we started mentioning a possible serious situation 2 or 3 days in advance.

However, on the day the ice arrived the morning forecast had mentioned starting I believe late afternoon. At mid-morning, a band of rain had already entered West Alabama and it, of course froze on contact. This precipitation quickly started icing down the Birmingham area by mid-day stranding thousands of people at work and other places.

So many cars abandoned that Green Springs Highway looked like a used car lot.

Unfortunately, even though we updated the forecast and issued special statements that the onset was be sooner, lots of people never got the word.

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Posted by  
on December 8, 2005, 2:02 pm
ok, here i am - have a migraine and chills today - so i am taking it easy. flushing some cubes and sleeping with a spoon (what kind?? silver or plastic LOL!!!) sam has the inside out backwards pj thing covered. poor miss molly probably wouldn't know what to think, we will just have to get her some tiny red sparky rain boots to keep her feet warm and dry :-)



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Posted by  
on December 8, 2005, 2:05 pm
wow... i was 10 years old during that storm and remember it well. my parents got stranded. i vaguely remember hearing that it "might" snow. perhaps my parents chose to not heed the warnings.........

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Posted by  
on December 8, 2005, 2:06 pm
JB. Thanks .. I was 10 at the time, and I do remember it and have some 35mm video of the event... I knew you had made a post last year some time about that and the storm moving in faster than expected.. I just dont remember all the details.. Thanks .. I hope that Miss Molly can get some Snow time this year... That has to be one of the funniest memories of childhood , when a pet for the first time runs out the door headed for some good time, and finding the snow on the ground... Its like they cant get back inside fast enough...

Thanks JB for all of your posts during the day , in order to feed those of us who have joined the "IWIWAM" club...

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Posted by  
on December 8, 2005, 2:32 pm
Sorry to here your head hurts Stephanie I know what it fills like I get them often, Now you can not get sick because when we do our live shot than you have to be there HAHAHAHA.

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Posted by  
on December 8, 2005, 3:14 pm
getting better michael, when i get those things i am not worth anything - can't see a thing :-/ best thing for a migraine is to lie down with a hot wrap and take some migrane meds. but it is getting better... finally :-)

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