Rain Finally Expanding

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Sorry for the slow performance over on the abc3340.com site (this blog is on the jamesspann.com site on a different server, so no problems here)... our web site shares a server and bandwidth with our sister station in Washington, D.C... WJLA, Channel 7. They are getting hammered with traffic due to the winter storm threat ahead for our nation's capital.

This storm has been aggravating in a number of ways for us... the rain is slow to arrive over the eastern two-thirds of the state. Seems like the problem is the upper air part and the surface part of the storm are disconnected in ways. Still, we now have a solid rain mass from Tuscaloosa to Huntsville and it is finally moving on east. Looks like most spots will wind up with a quarter of an inch.

The fact that the rain started late also meant a busted temperature forecast; no evaporative cooling this morning, so temperatures are hovering around 50 in the rain-free areaas.

TONIGHT: Another surge of cold air moves in here. Just look at the numbers... as I write this around 1:30 p.m. Memphis has 34 with drizzle and fog. Other current observations include 42 in Jackson, MS with rain (That is what I figured we would be having right now), 37 at Greenwood, MS, and 27 in Dallas.

The rain will move out as the cold air moves in, so any snow or ice is very unlikely. We should be in the mid 20s by daybreak tomorrow.

The weather will be cold and dry tomorrow through the weekend. Saturday morning will be especially cold, with most places seeing lows between 17 and 22.

NEXT WEEK: One thing is for sure; temperatures will remain below normal. And, another storm system is likely. But, details are hard to nail down. The European wants to develop a storm south of the Louisiana coast Tuesday, while the GFS waits until Wednesday night and Thursday. For now we will believe the GFS (which is a dangerous thing to do this time of the year), and mention rain for Wednesday night and Thursday of next week. Can't rule out some snow or ice for the northern quarter of the state, but odds favor another cold rain at this point.

LONG RANGE: I still think we will have one, maybe two decent snow/ice threats before the month and the year is over. The pattern just favors it.

And, cold weather fans will like the 12Z run at 384 hours, a very cold trough shows up over the eastern U.S. which, if by chance is correct, would mean a very cold Christmas. Who knows... with the snow cover and existing cold air now we might be thinking of cold like late December 1989 or 1983. We saw single digits both of those years around Christmas time.

TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST: A big ice and snow event for tonight and tomorrow. An ice storm warning covers part of western North Carolina, and winter storm warnings are common from Kentucky and southern Indiana to New England. Lots folks in that region will see 3 to 6 inches of snow, with heavier totals in isolated strips.

Working on getting our Storm Alert 2006 tour ready... that is coming up in February. We will post the schedule by early January... there are some amazing stories for the show.

The next map discussion video will be available tomorrow morning by 7:00 a.m.!