First Winter Storm Threat A Week Away??

The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I have mentioned here many times in recent weeks I think we will have one, maybe two, winter storm threats before the month is over. Sure looks like that threat is shaping up in about one week. But first...

MID-WEEK STORM: Following dry weather today and tomorrow, a rain event is shaping up for mid-week. Just for fun, cold air damming will be involved. Let me say up from I don't think at this point temperatures will be cold enough for any ice over northeast Alabama Wednesday night. But, it sure looks like a cold rain up there.

Temperature forecasting will be a nightmare Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS shows a high of 45 for Birmingham on Wednesday. Could be a day on which Tuscaloosa has a high of 51, and Centre has a high of 38.

The rain should end early in the day Thursday.

WEEKEND: A little Gulf system passes south of here on Saturday. For the moment it looks like the bulk of the rain with that feature will stay south of I-20.

WINTER STORM THREAT? Now don't go posting on message boards that James Spann is forecasting snow here in a week. I am just saying there could be a THREAT of snow here. And, maybe a pretty good one. You know the deal, lets get through the mid-week system and then we can focus on the winter storm threat. Like a football coach, I like to take storm systems one at a time.

Here are the players on the field:

*A very cold 1043 mb high over Kansas. The 00Z run of the GFS built the pressure to almost 1050 mb over Wyoming. Frigid Arctic air dives deep into Texas Sunday, and begins to come our way early next week. The idea of highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s here early next week (December 19-20) is laughable. We will probably struggle to climb above freezing by Tuesday December 20.

*A strong short wave aloft will move from the southern plains into the deep south. Some runs close off an upper level low over Alabama and Georgia by Tuesday. Thickness values drop like a rock.

*A surface low will form in the northern Gulf of Mexico, moving northeast to a point near the Georgia coast, and then up the eastern seaboard.

We know the players, but we won't know the game plan just yet. But, there is no doubt this could turn into a major winter storm threat for areas all the way from Texas across the deep south, including Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. This one might even bring the risk of a few snow flakes to the southern tip of Texas; our radio affiliate in McAllen is KVMV-FM; last year they had some snow at Christmas as well.

It will be pretty late in the week before the details will be known.... but we will do out best to keep up with the clues we see in coming days.

This thing could wind up being a little rain, a sharp change to colder temperatures, and a few snow flurries for Alabama. But, on the other hand, it could turn out to be a potent winter storm for us. This pre-Christmas winter storm will be the focus of our discussions here for the rest of the week, needless to say.

LONG RANGE: I think the GFS is horrible in the longer range and is rejected. I still think, generally speaking, temperatures remain below normal for the rest of the month.

The next map discussion video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon...