Some quick thoughts tonight...
In scanning the inbox and comment section of the blog this evening... I am always amazed at the people who get so worked up if our forecast mentions just a threat of snow or anything out of the ordinary.
Those people seemingly want us to forecast the "partly cloudy, highs in the 50s, low in the 30s" dribble every day in the extended periods, like you find on many web sites. Yes, that is "normal" for December. But, those are simply averages, and our weather here is rarely "normal" any time of the year, except for summer.
Sure, we could go the safe route and forecast "partly sunny, highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s" in the 3 to 7 day time frame. Nobody would notice, and the product would be pretty much worthless. That is carving a weather forecast down to "consensus".
I love what Margaret Thatcher says about consensus:
"To me, consensus seems to be the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies. So it is something in which no one believes and to which no one objects."
If I think highs will be in the 50s and lows in the 30s, I will say it here. If I think we will have a winter storm threat, I will say it here. My job is very simple... to tell you what I think will happen based on science. I refuse to get down to a "consensus" level where everything I believe is tossed out and the forecast is worthless. But, for whatever reason those are the forecasts that never generate nasty e-mail messages. CONSENSUS. No one objects.
Consensus is also the reason so many people are afraid to say "Merry Christmas" this time of the year.
Enough of the soapbox... we are watching the 00Z runs come in this evening. Will have the regularly scheduled post and video by tomorrow morning at 7:00!
In scanning the inbox and comment section of the blog this evening... I am always amazed at the people who get so worked up if our forecast mentions just a threat of snow or anything out of the ordinary.
Those people seemingly want us to forecast the "partly cloudy, highs in the 50s, low in the 30s" dribble every day in the extended periods, like you find on many web sites. Yes, that is "normal" for December. But, those are simply averages, and our weather here is rarely "normal" any time of the year, except for summer.
Sure, we could go the safe route and forecast "partly sunny, highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s" in the 3 to 7 day time frame. Nobody would notice, and the product would be pretty much worthless. That is carving a weather forecast down to "consensus".
I love what Margaret Thatcher says about consensus:
"To me, consensus seems to be the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies. So it is something in which no one believes and to which no one objects."
If I think highs will be in the 50s and lows in the 30s, I will say it here. If I think we will have a winter storm threat, I will say it here. My job is very simple... to tell you what I think will happen based on science. I refuse to get down to a "consensus" level where everything I believe is tossed out and the forecast is worthless. But, for whatever reason those are the forecasts that never generate nasty e-mail messages. CONSENSUS. No one objects.
Consensus is also the reason so many people are afraid to say "Merry Christmas" this time of the year.
Enough of the soapbox... we are watching the 00Z runs come in this evening. Will have the regularly scheduled post and video by tomorrow morning at 7:00!
This is really a fun community.
on December 13, 2005, 9:03 pm
Anna
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