The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
If you didn't read our blog posts from yesterday... you can scroll down and see that I have named the three storm systems on the board for the next 7 to 8 days. Al, Bob, and Hope. I like short names that are easy to pronounce. And, understand I like to deal with them one at a time. So, the nit-picking details on Bob and Hope will have to wait, but they are both very challenging systems.
AL: Nice batch of rain shows up early this morning as I write this. This is in association with the upper air part of the storm, positioned well to the north of us. During the day, a surface low will form in the coastal waters south of Louisiana, and should result in an expanding rain shield to the southwest of Alabama, which will move in here later today and tonight.
We still expect a soaking rain tonight with one to two inches likely. Some thunder is also possible mainly over the southern half of Alabama. We also note SPC has defined a slight of severe thunderstorms for the coastal counties/parishes of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
To the northeast, Al will bring some nasty icing tonight to parts of the western Carolinas on up into Pennsylvania.
The rain here will wind down early tomorrow, and Friday should be dry and cool.
BOB: Along comes Bob for the weekend. Another coastal low, but the air will be a little colder this time, setting up a problematic forecast for the northern third of the state. No doubt the deeper moisture will be over south Alabama, but there might be a little "sweet spot" where snow flakes or ice pellets will fall.
We note the 850 mb (5,000 feet) freeze line is near I-20. Surface temperatures will probably be a little above freezing, so if we do see snow flakes or sleet it should not pose any serious problems. The best chance of precipitation from Bob will be mainly Saturday night....
Lets get Al out of the way and we can really focus on Bob tomorrow. But, for the moment I think you almost have to at least mention a wintry mix for areas north of I-20 Saturday night. But, once again, major travel issues are not likely.
A nice shot of cold air rolls in here following Bob for the first part of next week.
HOPE: This is our mid-week storm next week, most likely in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. EVERY run of the GFS shows Hope nicely, but they differ in the moisture, strength, and surface reflection. The GFS will flip and flop multiple times, and I see no reason to change the logic of a significant storm in this period for the deep south.
Yes, with the deeper cold air I still think SOME part of the deep south will have the first significant winter storm threat of the season with Hope. I don't know exactly where.... nobody does. But the threat is there, and the system is on the board.
Yesterday's 18Z run of the GFS went nuts with the system with a major surface low and serious snow potential. The latest run (06Z) looks fairly dry. The solution is probably somwhere between.
Bottom line is that a very cold airmass will be in place early next week, and a storm system will be rolling through the southern states. Getting those two elements to dance together nicely has been the age old problem for snow lovers in Alabama, and there is no way to know if it will happen so far in advance. But, I am simply saying the threat is there for now.
I encourage you to scroll down and read my post on "Consensus vs Accuracy" below. This describes how I forecast the weather, and how I try to run my life. Sometimes you have to take a stand.
TODAY: J.B. Elliott is taking the morning off and I will be writing the afternoon forecast package for him today. On a normal weekday, I write the morning package you see over on the seven day forecast page on the ABC 33/40 web site, and J.B. handles the afternoon forecast. Bill Murray covers weekends.
I won't have a "Miss Molly" story... those will return tomorrow!
The blog discussion and map discussion video will be posted on time, by 3:30...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
If you didn't read our blog posts from yesterday... you can scroll down and see that I have named the three storm systems on the board for the next 7 to 8 days. Al, Bob, and Hope. I like short names that are easy to pronounce. And, understand I like to deal with them one at a time. So, the nit-picking details on Bob and Hope will have to wait, but they are both very challenging systems.
AL: Nice batch of rain shows up early this morning as I write this. This is in association with the upper air part of the storm, positioned well to the north of us. During the day, a surface low will form in the coastal waters south of Louisiana, and should result in an expanding rain shield to the southwest of Alabama, which will move in here later today and tonight.
We still expect a soaking rain tonight with one to two inches likely. Some thunder is also possible mainly over the southern half of Alabama. We also note SPC has defined a slight of severe thunderstorms for the coastal counties/parishes of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
To the northeast, Al will bring some nasty icing tonight to parts of the western Carolinas on up into Pennsylvania.
The rain here will wind down early tomorrow, and Friday should be dry and cool.
BOB: Along comes Bob for the weekend. Another coastal low, but the air will be a little colder this time, setting up a problematic forecast for the northern third of the state. No doubt the deeper moisture will be over south Alabama, but there might be a little "sweet spot" where snow flakes or ice pellets will fall.
We note the 850 mb (5,000 feet) freeze line is near I-20. Surface temperatures will probably be a little above freezing, so if we do see snow flakes or sleet it should not pose any serious problems. The best chance of precipitation from Bob will be mainly Saturday night....
Lets get Al out of the way and we can really focus on Bob tomorrow. But, for the moment I think you almost have to at least mention a wintry mix for areas north of I-20 Saturday night. But, once again, major travel issues are not likely.
A nice shot of cold air rolls in here following Bob for the first part of next week.
HOPE: This is our mid-week storm next week, most likely in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. EVERY run of the GFS shows Hope nicely, but they differ in the moisture, strength, and surface reflection. The GFS will flip and flop multiple times, and I see no reason to change the logic of a significant storm in this period for the deep south.
Yes, with the deeper cold air I still think SOME part of the deep south will have the first significant winter storm threat of the season with Hope. I don't know exactly where.... nobody does. But the threat is there, and the system is on the board.
Yesterday's 18Z run of the GFS went nuts with the system with a major surface low and serious snow potential. The latest run (06Z) looks fairly dry. The solution is probably somwhere between.
Bottom line is that a very cold airmass will be in place early next week, and a storm system will be rolling through the southern states. Getting those two elements to dance together nicely has been the age old problem for snow lovers in Alabama, and there is no way to know if it will happen so far in advance. But, I am simply saying the threat is there for now.
I encourage you to scroll down and read my post on "Consensus vs Accuracy" below. This describes how I forecast the weather, and how I try to run my life. Sometimes you have to take a stand.
TODAY: J.B. Elliott is taking the morning off and I will be writing the afternoon forecast package for him today. On a normal weekday, I write the morning package you see over on the seven day forecast page on the ABC 33/40 web site, and J.B. handles the afternoon forecast. Bill Murray covers weekends.
I won't have a "Miss Molly" story... those will return tomorrow!
The blog discussion and map discussion video will be posted on time, by 3:30...
on December 14, 2005, 6:12 am
Anna
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