Al, Bob, and Hope

The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Three storm systems ahead... number one, Al, is getting his act together right now. We have a 1005 mb surface low near Galveston, with a large mass of rain and storms ahead of it. There is a risk of severe storms for the entire Gulf coast, all the way from Galveston to Apalachicola. The warm sector of the system is surging inland, and all of you along and south of I-10 will have to watch for severe weather tonight.

Around here, a cold, soaking rain is ahead tonight. One to two inches of rain with temperatures holding rock steady in the 40s. The 12Z NAM extraction shows 1.79" for Birmingham. Not a bad little rain event.

The WEDGE is alive and well as expected. Right now Fort Payne has 41 and Atlanta reports 39 (that is down from 40 degrees in Atlanta last hour). This thing looks pretty ugly in the wedge, with freezing rain and ice accumulation from the northeast tip of Georgia up into Pennsylvania.

The rain should end tomorrow morning from west to east, and we might even drop a few degrees during the day as CAA kicks in (cold air advection). Friday should be cool and dry.

BOB: The 12Z run of the GFS is a tad warmer in its thermal fields. Really I don't see anything to make us change the forecast. A cold rain for most of Alabama late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, with a wintry mix possible on the northern edge of the precipitation shield over the northern quarter of Alabama, mostly north of U.S. 278. In that region, the precipitation should be light, and temperatures should generally be above freezing, so no travel problems are really expected.

Many people are hitting the road this weekend as the Christmas holiday gets close. I really don't think "Bob" will be a major trouble maker for travel... the precipitation should mostly stay south of Tennessee, where the cold air will be deeper. Maybe a little light snow over East Tennessee Saturday night. Most of Georgia should see only a cold rain from this, and any wintry precipitation north of Atlanta should be light, much like Alabama.

But, you know my routine... lets get Al out of the way and we can be really specific with Bob tomorrow. But for now, we just don't expect any serious issues over the weekend.

HOPE: Now the fun begins. Cold air deepens next week, and the next short wave rolls in from the west at mid-week on Tuesday or Wednesday. Hope continues to show up nicely on all models, but the moisture, placement of surface features, and upper air support are all changing from run to run, as you expect with a system a week out. The 12Z run of the GFS seems too far south and east with the surface low. The 12Z European is much more supportive of a significant storm here.

Based on my sitting in a weather office staring at this stuff for 27 years, and the current teleconnections setup, I still think the idea of a significant winter storm has great merit. Now understand, from the beginning and today I am not saying it will snow in Alabama. I am saying there is a risk of a significant winter storm for parts of the deep south, or the southeast U.S. Best shot at a pre-Christmas snow event for the southern states in a number of years. I just don't know who has the best shot... nobody does at this stage of the game. Maybe Alabama, maybe not. But we have a shot.

BE SURE and scroll down and read Jason's post called "Climate vs Weather", and my post from last night called "Consensus and Accuracy". Both really go hand in hand, and explain why our forecasts sometimes don't match what you might read on other web sites or see on other TV stations.

I will have the next map discussion video and long post here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow... notes this evening and tonight as AL unfolds!