The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Al (we named these storms several days ago... scroll down to Tuesday morning's post) will be long remembered for our friends northeast of here... as a major ice storm. This thing looks really bad. One of our radio affiliates is in Lynchburg, VA... I just checked their observation, and it shows 25 with a soaking rain falling. This will bring down thousands and thousands of trees, and power outages will be widespread from north Georgia all the way up to Pennsylvania.
Atlanta has been hovering around 32 during the night... seems like the roads are mostly wet in the city, although GA 400 has some ice on the approach to I-285.
Here in Alabama... there has been some icing up on Lookout Mountain around Mentone. See J.B.'s report below this one. The wedge almost got us... it was a very close call for northeast Alabama.
J.B. will run down rain totals here as the day rolls on... at my place in northern Shelby county the storm total as of 6:00 a.m. is 0.84".
The rain will continue to exit the state this morning, and tomorrow will be brigher day with temperatures moving up into the low 50s by afternoon.
BOB: Tricky little system coming in here over the weekend. The GFS suggests a cold rain for the southern two-thirds of the state, with little chance of any wintry precipitation. But, the GFS has been rotten in thermal fields all month; you have to use it with caution. The GFS had no clue... and I mean no clue... several days ago over this ice storm northeast of here today.
The NAM... does come in a little colder and has the precipitation shield up into Tennessee. If you believe this model, there indeed could be a wintry mix Saturday night over north Alabama, mainly north of U.S. 278 (north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden). The freeze line at 850 is at Birmingham, but many of the other critical partial thickness values are closer to Huntsville.
We won't change much in the forecast for now; we will mention a cold rain for most of the state, with that chance of sleet or snow involved north of U.S. 278 for Saturday night. Most of the precipitation will come from about 4:00 p.m. Saturday through 6:00 a.m. Sunday. Surface temperatures should remain a little above freezing over north Alabama, so at this point major travel problems are not expected.
Of course, we will fine tune this forecast in coming days.
HOPE: The final storm of the trio comes in here toward the middle of next week... perhaps Tuesday night or Wednesday. The GFS shows a very dynamic upper system, but we think the surface features are displaced too far to the south and east.
Based on teleconnections, and the pattern that is spinning up these Gulf storms, it makes more sense for the main surface low to be much closer to the coast than what you see on the GFS. And, if this thinking is correct, there will be a winter storm threat for SOME part of the deep south, or southeast U.S. toward the middle of next week. Once again, I don't know exactly where. We have to get Al and Bob out of here and then we can focus on the details of Hope.
Next week looks cold. The GFS MOS temperatures are laughable.
BEYOND HOPE: I think temperatures will moderate here after Hope... that is the last storm in the series. The westerlies move north, and temperatures will moderate for a while around Christmas, continuing into the following week.
J.B. will keep a running dairy of events up to the northeast today... I will have the next map discussion video posted to the server by 3:30 this afternoon. One thing is for sure... no dull days around here for the next week!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Al (we named these storms several days ago... scroll down to Tuesday morning's post) will be long remembered for our friends northeast of here... as a major ice storm. This thing looks really bad. One of our radio affiliates is in Lynchburg, VA... I just checked their observation, and it shows 25 with a soaking rain falling. This will bring down thousands and thousands of trees, and power outages will be widespread from north Georgia all the way up to Pennsylvania.
Atlanta has been hovering around 32 during the night... seems like the roads are mostly wet in the city, although GA 400 has some ice on the approach to I-285.
Here in Alabama... there has been some icing up on Lookout Mountain around Mentone. See J.B.'s report below this one. The wedge almost got us... it was a very close call for northeast Alabama.
J.B. will run down rain totals here as the day rolls on... at my place in northern Shelby county the storm total as of 6:00 a.m. is 0.84".
The rain will continue to exit the state this morning, and tomorrow will be brigher day with temperatures moving up into the low 50s by afternoon.
BOB: Tricky little system coming in here over the weekend. The GFS suggests a cold rain for the southern two-thirds of the state, with little chance of any wintry precipitation. But, the GFS has been rotten in thermal fields all month; you have to use it with caution. The GFS had no clue... and I mean no clue... several days ago over this ice storm northeast of here today.
The NAM... does come in a little colder and has the precipitation shield up into Tennessee. If you believe this model, there indeed could be a wintry mix Saturday night over north Alabama, mainly north of U.S. 278 (north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden). The freeze line at 850 is at Birmingham, but many of the other critical partial thickness values are closer to Huntsville.
We won't change much in the forecast for now; we will mention a cold rain for most of the state, with that chance of sleet or snow involved north of U.S. 278 for Saturday night. Most of the precipitation will come from about 4:00 p.m. Saturday through 6:00 a.m. Sunday. Surface temperatures should remain a little above freezing over north Alabama, so at this point major travel problems are not expected.
Of course, we will fine tune this forecast in coming days.
HOPE: The final storm of the trio comes in here toward the middle of next week... perhaps Tuesday night or Wednesday. The GFS shows a very dynamic upper system, but we think the surface features are displaced too far to the south and east.
Based on teleconnections, and the pattern that is spinning up these Gulf storms, it makes more sense for the main surface low to be much closer to the coast than what you see on the GFS. And, if this thinking is correct, there will be a winter storm threat for SOME part of the deep south, or southeast U.S. toward the middle of next week. Once again, I don't know exactly where. We have to get Al and Bob out of here and then we can focus on the details of Hope.
Next week looks cold. The GFS MOS temperatures are laughable.
BEYOND HOPE: I think temperatures will moderate here after Hope... that is the last storm in the series. The westerlies move north, and temperatures will moderate for a while around Christmas, continuing into the following week.
J.B. will keep a running dairy of events up to the northeast today... I will have the next map discussion video posted to the server by 3:30 this afternoon. One thing is for sure... no dull days around here for the next week!
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on December 15, 2005, 6:35 am
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