Looking Ahead To Bob And Hope

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Scroll down the the latest on AL, the massive snow and ice storm impacting much of the eastern U.S. J.B. as always has done a great job keeping tabs on the system. And, see those rain totals for Alabama. A very good soaking as advertised.

By the way, I named the trio of storms that faced Alabama back on Tuesday morning when I was working with little sleep. AL, BOB, and HOPE.

BOB: I don't see much reason to change our weekend outlook. Bob will bring mostly a cold rain to the state, but there is a chance of wintry mix on the northern edge of the big precipitation shield. Best chance of ice pellets or snow flakes north of U.S. 278, but temperatures should be hovering a tad above freezing which should prevent serious travel problems.

We will have to watch for unexpected issues from evaporative cooling and dynamic cooling, but for now we just don't think Bob will bring any big problems to the state.

For those of you traveling this weekend, Bob won't be a big, bad ice storm like Al. There could be a few flurries over Tennessee, but again travel problems look unlikely with most of the precipitation remaining over Alabama and Georgia. And, instead of rolling up the Atlantic seaboard, for now it looks like Bob will move out to sea and not really impact the major eastern U.S. cities.

Of course, all of this could change as we get closer to the weekend, so stay tuned...

HOPE: Again, this continues to be the most interesting system ahead. The latest run of the GFS shows a strong short wave trough moving through the midwest, with a second short wave hanging back over the southwest U.S. This run does not phase the two waves. The idea of a winter storm threat for parts of the deep south is based on a phased storm system...

So, for the moment we discount the 12Z GFS and still expect phasing next week with the potential for a mid-week storm with rain and possibly winter precipitation across the deep south. CPC continues to also think along these lines for next week on their afternoon update today.

If by chance the GFS is correct, the lead wave over the midwest might bring some flurries to north Alabama Monday night, and then the second wave brings rain toward the end of the week as warmer air returns. Again, we discount this solution for now based on the pattern.

LONG RANGE: If we do have a phased system next week, there will be a shot of cold air Wednesday through Friday, followed by moderating temperatures by Christmas day.

The next map discussion video will be on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!