No Dull Days Here

December 16, 2005, 6:16 am
Posted by James Spann in Weather Discussions
Rating: 0/5   Votes : 0
The morning map discussion video is FINALLY on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Had some wi-fi issues that have finally been resolved.

Cold is the word this morning; everyone around here is below freezing. Some spots are down in the mid 20s; I see where Anniston reports 26 degrees. We should note these numbers are well below the GFS MOS values that were shown yesterday. As J.B. writes below, there is some patchy dense fog out there, and of course, any leftover wet spots are now icy spots. Be careful out there.

We enjoy ample sunshine today, and a decent chance we reach the low 50s this afternoon.

BOB: Our weekend storm will zip through here tomorrow night, and the rain will come while many of you are asleep. The NAM is a little wetter, and GFS a little drier. Both models show the deeper moisture over south Alabama. Critical thickness values remain to the north of here, so the chance of any wintry precipitation around here looks very small. Just a light, cold rain Saturday night. Best chance of rain now seems to come from about 4:00 p.m. tomorrow through 4:00 a.m. Sunday. Any ice pellets or snow flakes would be north of U.S. 278, and up there the moisture is so limited there might be little precipitation at all.

NAM extraction shows only 0.12" here from Bob. Nothing to get excited about.

The sun should return on Sunday and Monday with chilly temperatures.

HOPE: Our final storm of this series comes in here in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. The big question is this: to phase, or not to phase. The GFS and the European say no phasing... they keep the southern short wave apart from the northern branch. This will prevent any really cold air from getting involved in the storm, and also prevent it from becoming a super-duper storm of major strength.

I think the best course of action is to go with the "no phased" look for now. If that is correct, then Hope will be very similar to Bob (the weekend storm coming in) in terms of the imact on Alabama.

The 00Z GFS looks good to us; it shows a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico with precipitation extending up over the northern two-thirds of Alabama late Wednesday night into Thursday. The 0 degree (C) line at 5000 feet is over northwest Alabama, so for now it looks like a mostly rain event.

But again, like I have written here dozens of times, I like to take these systems one at a time. So, once Bob gets out of here we can have a really good look at Hope.

CHRISTMAS: The GFS continues the idea of a storm system to the west of Alabama on Christmas day, with a rain mass to the west over Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. Temperatures should warm to "normal" levels for this time of the year (50s and 30s).

The 06Z GFS goes nuts with the system develops a deep upper low over Alabama and Georgia the day after Christmas with very low thickness values. I don't trust any specific solution right now as the model is struggling with the pattern.

Headed over to Anniston today for the annual "Bake A Christmas" day at WTDR-FM, Thunder 92.7. Those guys have been doing this for years; they auction baked goods and a variety of other cool prizes to raise money to provide Christmas toys for families in need in east Alabama. If you live in East Alabama be sure and listen, and give us a call!

The afternoon map discussion video will be ready by 3:30 this afternoon...
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Posted by New Mike  
on December 16, 2005, 6:19 am
Can everyone see Hope fading into the sunset as a snow maker? I know it only been a few runs of the models but... Trends folks... Trends..LOL!! ;0

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 6:32 am
It's always like this in Alabama. Threats of snow but always NO SHOW"S

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 6:35 am
it is a busy time of the year anyway... not that i have given up hope - family coming in from orange beach on thursday!!!!!

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Posted by Margie Richardson - Rainbow City  
on December 16, 2005, 6:38 am
Now we know ... This is what BMX NWS wrote this morning :)

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
GENERATE IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF WESTERN U.S. BLOCKING RIDGE. THE
00Z RUN OF THE !) GO-FOR-SNOW MODEL (GFS) !)WILL BRING THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF AND CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME
LIGHT RAIN INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 6:36 am
Well I don't know about anybody else?)But my low was 23 and that is what the current temperature is!)Now we don't see much snow here in December;)I think we will see some in January I hope so:).

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Posted by New Mike  
on December 16, 2005, 6:39 am
Anyone having probs with the Map Discussion? I can't seem to get mine to work today... Hmmm...

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Posted by Margie Richardson  
on December 16, 2005, 6:49 am
I can't view it either....

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 6:50 am
I can't receive it either. I mentioned it to james and he is having technical problems with it

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Posted by New Mike  
on December 16, 2005, 6:54 am
Thanks JB and Good Morning!

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 7:02 am
Thanks JB:)That is what I was going to ask I can't get to load.)

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Posted by Anna  
on December 16, 2005, 7:21 am
Thick, heavy frost at my house this morning. I think someone described it last week as frost that looked like snow...that is what I thought!!

Good day to all!!

Anna

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Posted by Greg  
on December 16, 2005, 7:33 am
Does anyone want to admit that I was correct in saying no snow and sunny. Another forcast got our hopes up for snow by James, NOT EVEN CLOSE. Somebody needs to address this beside me.

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 8:15 am
Greg, what you say has merit. Snow forecasts do bring people to view the station's broadcasts and to the website; however, this station still remains the only one to analyze and then offer their own analysis on the upcoming weather systems (while others regurgitate the NWS's) . Yes, 3340's track record on snow forecasts seems to be subpar (no data to prove this, just perception). They are still the best in a competitive field.
We should all remember that it rarely snows in Alabama, yet hope is still a good thing.

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 9:04 am
Yes is rarely snows in Alabama but in the pst it snowed alot. I and remember in snowing almost every year in the 80's and we had several in the 90's not counting the 93 storm. It just doesn't snow here as much anymore. I still think James Spann is the best in this market though.

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Posted by rusty Pitts  
on December 16, 2005, 9:29 am
I will address this.. Yes they offer the analisys...yes many of us are here... But dont get the facts wrong.... we are here becasue we like it.. not becasue of the forcasting.... This is an atmosphere that we enjoy and if you dont like the forcasting , and the talk that goes on in here , then it is a free fcountry, but heck if its not up to your standards , then why are you here.. Why listen to these Bozoes...... Go to the weather channel and get your 50's 30's from there..

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 7:39 am
Lots of frozen puddles along the sides of the road, a few small patches of black ice in the TMS parking lot. not a problem, but everyone needs to pay attention :)

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 7:44 am
Greg, I think there may be some other place out there on the world wide web where you may be much happier. Seems like you're just trying to stir up something where the rest of us are content. If you're not happy, go find somewhere that you think is better. It's very simple.

It was 30 at my house in Jacksonville this morning. Not quite as cold as surrounding areas, so it seems. Lots and lots of frost, though.

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Posted by Anna  
on December 16, 2005, 8:22 am
Greg, I'm sure if you get in touch with the management they will listen to your concerns. However, common sense tells someone that hope is what it is, hope, and if people are putting all their HOPE into the weather, especially here in Alabama, they've got their priorities out of whack. I doubt many people were holding their breath for this, they were just hoping and wishing for it, but will move on with their lives without giving it a second thought.

Anna

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 8:23 am
I went to talkweather.com yesterday at jessica's suggestion, for an answer i was seeking in regards to another blogger's comment. perhaps greg would be happier over there, where there seems to be a lot of other, more experienced IWIWAM........ ;)

chris, i looked outside this morning around 2 am, the frost was so thick, and i was still so half asleep, i could have sworn i saw snow!!!

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 8:29 am
I think that living here in Alabama we have that hope of seeing snow. This is because we just don't see it that often. If we lived in Michigan or somewhere like that we would not be having this conversation. I am one of those that don't believe the snow thing until I see the flakes. But, I also am one of those that will do the snow dance until I get blisters on my feet.

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Posted by Anna  
on December 16, 2005, 9:07 am
I think the only thing Stephanie is worrying about falling out of her sky are those arrows up in her tree...LOL!! :)

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 9:08 am
Hey Dave I know what you mean;)I danced one day last week till I got tired alt="!)" />But I will keep on dancing:)

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Posted by jules  
on December 16, 2005, 9:14 am
I don't think anything needs to be "addressed". Like I said yesterday, these are predictions based on models. The models changed and as you can see so did the predictions by the weather team.

The only way you can get a 100% accurate weather forecast is to go outside and look up.


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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 9:26 am
Greg,
It seems to me that if I were sour about something, I would avoid it. To post as you have seems spiteful. I don't really see the need to address anything. I rarely post here but often read...especially in the winter months. I enjoy the hope of snow and the excitement is fun. But when it doesn't snow...even when the possibility is mentioned...I' don't get mad.

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 9:44 am
Anna, you arent kidding!! I think there were 11 up there total, and only one has come down. LOL

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 10:04 am
I think we can all agree that weather forcasting esp of snow in the south is difficult at best. I don't remember ever seeing James PROMISE snow. It's fun to dream.
Stephanie, have your Orange beach folks wave at my gulf shores folks on the HWY, mama & gandmother (95 if you look at her birthday, 96 if you ask her) will be headed back home when yours come. Prayers for all to have safe travel.

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 10:39 am
Hey let me say something I think that Greg is trying to get us worked up for nothing. So instead of commenting on what he says let's just have fun and keep hopeing and wishing:)/)

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Posted by Jason  
on December 16, 2005, 10:43 am
Greg, If you read the 7 day the past couple of days it showed a chance of rain or snow. How come you act like a snowstorm was forecasted. It seems you are changing facts into fiction to make your argument which has little if any merit.

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Posted by Greg  
on December 16, 2005, 11:11 am
Look, if you guys cant forcast, then I am out. I thought you guys could hit a forcast or two, but boy was I wrong. Looks like I was correct about Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be sunny. Highs in the 50's, lows in the 30's. Can arque with me that I was right. Yall have fun, no hard feelings

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Posted by jason  
on December 16, 2005, 11:17 am
BYE GREG!!!!!

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Posted by T  
on December 16, 2005, 11:37 am
Hey Greg if you want to go than go!)I will not lose sleep over it!)I look at this blog everyday and it looks like you are an expert on weather;)so why don't you go to the weather channel I just looked at the 7 day forecast and I saw wher the highs will be around 50-51-and even a couple of days where temps are in the 40's there goes your 50's 30's forecast alt="!)" /> alt="!)" />and I do still think we will see snow this winter:)

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Posted by Margie Richardson  
on December 16, 2005, 11:44 am
Good Lord...someone woke up grumpy. ;)

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Posted by monica  
on December 16, 2005, 11:40 am
and good riddance!

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 12:16 pm
don't let the door hit you on the way out buddy :-P!!!!!

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Posted by  
on December 16, 2005, 12:29 pm
I agree with you Margie:)someone did wake up grumpy/;(

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Posted by John T.  
on December 16, 2005, 6:03 pm
Greg with you NOT being a meteorologist what do you want to address??? This is just a blog! James admitted he missed the high today. You are getting a little rediculous with this. James is only human, are you?

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