The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Remember the song by Loverboy?
"Everybody's working for the weekend
Everybody wants a little romance
Everybody's goin' off the deep end
Everybody needs a second chance, oh
You want a piece of my heart
You better start from start
You wanna be in the show
Come on baby lets go"
High clouds continue to roll into the state, and we have two systems ahead in the next 7 days that are both very interesting and challenging from a forecast point of view.
By the way, no way we reach the low 50s this afternoon. I was WRONG when I forecast a high of 51. I fell for the MOS trap... you know, the 50s/30s thing we often discuss here. MOS numbers were way too warm today. You simply have to toss them out at times. I show 44.1 degrees at my place as I write this.
BOB: The system we named Bob back on Tuesday is coming in here over the weekend. The NAM is slower, wetter, and colder. The GFS is faster, warmer, and drier. The NAM shows 0.68" of rain for Birmingham, while the GFS shows only 0.05". The truth is probably somewhere in between.
Still looks like the bulk of the rain comes from late tomorrow afternoon through the pre-dawn hours Sunday.
I think the NAM thermal field is best. At 5,000 feet (850 mb), the freeze line almost extends down to I-20 late Saturday night. I think you have to mention at least the chance of some sleet mixed with the rain as far south as Birmingham. But, no travel problems here due to temperatures above freezing below 2,000 feet.
My greatest concern tomorrow night is northeast Alabama, specifically counties like Etowah, Cherokee, Jackson, DeKalb, and Marshall. Maybe even Blount. A wintry mix is more likely there... some rain, sleet and snow. But again, temperatures should stay a little above freezing. We will have to watch for evaporative cooling or any other process that can lower temperatures into the low 30s. Watch those wet bulbs tomorrow! Keep an eye on the blog... it will be very interesting to watch this unfold tomorrow night.
HOPE: The models and yours truly continue to struggle on what to do with our storm next week. Every run looks different; but there is no doubt there will be a storm on the board toward the middle of next week.
Seems like the chance of a phased system is very small. But, a southern stream system in the Gulf of Mexico should spread a cold rain into Alabama Wednesday night or Thursday. It could be pretty similar to Bob. the system coming in here over the weekend. A chance of wintry precipitation on the northern edge of the rain shield.
To add a little spice, the 12Z European model shows a deep upper low over Jackson, MS Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Cold core upper low, weatherman's woe. Watch out for dynamic cooling if that model is correct. A cold core upper low would lower thickness values and might bring a better chance of snow to a larger part of the deep south.
Like I have said all along, this is a THREAT to PARTS of the deep south. A threat of some wintry precipitation. We won't be able to be very specific until the system gets on the board next week after Bob is long gone.
Sure, without phasing with the northern branch of the jet that decreases the chance of snow. But a southern branch system with a cold core upper low like the ECMWF suggests sure means you can't rule out snow for a PART of the deep south. Again, I don't know which part yet.
CHRISTMAS: I sure don't trust the GFS in the longer range in this kind of difficult pattern. It is suggesting an upper trough around here in the vicinity of Christmas, but the amount of moisture is in question. We also note the country in general should be warmer at Christmas time as milder Pacific air covers much of the nation. The northeast still looks very cold, however.
Enjoyed being with the gang at WTDR-FM in Oxford this morning for their annual Bake A Christmas program for families in need. Call in and make a pledge if you are in East Alabama... they are at 92.7 FM.
Have a great weekend... try to have a little down time and soak up the real meaning of the season. I will be around and post thoughts on the blog as BOB unfolds....
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Remember the song by Loverboy?
"Everybody's working for the weekend
Everybody wants a little romance
Everybody's goin' off the deep end
Everybody needs a second chance, oh
You want a piece of my heart
You better start from start
You wanna be in the show
Come on baby lets go"
High clouds continue to roll into the state, and we have two systems ahead in the next 7 days that are both very interesting and challenging from a forecast point of view.
By the way, no way we reach the low 50s this afternoon. I was WRONG when I forecast a high of 51. I fell for the MOS trap... you know, the 50s/30s thing we often discuss here. MOS numbers were way too warm today. You simply have to toss them out at times. I show 44.1 degrees at my place as I write this.
BOB: The system we named Bob back on Tuesday is coming in here over the weekend. The NAM is slower, wetter, and colder. The GFS is faster, warmer, and drier. The NAM shows 0.68" of rain for Birmingham, while the GFS shows only 0.05". The truth is probably somewhere in between.
Still looks like the bulk of the rain comes from late tomorrow afternoon through the pre-dawn hours Sunday.
I think the NAM thermal field is best. At 5,000 feet (850 mb), the freeze line almost extends down to I-20 late Saturday night. I think you have to mention at least the chance of some sleet mixed with the rain as far south as Birmingham. But, no travel problems here due to temperatures above freezing below 2,000 feet.
My greatest concern tomorrow night is northeast Alabama, specifically counties like Etowah, Cherokee, Jackson, DeKalb, and Marshall. Maybe even Blount. A wintry mix is more likely there... some rain, sleet and snow. But again, temperatures should stay a little above freezing. We will have to watch for evaporative cooling or any other process that can lower temperatures into the low 30s. Watch those wet bulbs tomorrow! Keep an eye on the blog... it will be very interesting to watch this unfold tomorrow night.
HOPE: The models and yours truly continue to struggle on what to do with our storm next week. Every run looks different; but there is no doubt there will be a storm on the board toward the middle of next week.
Seems like the chance of a phased system is very small. But, a southern stream system in the Gulf of Mexico should spread a cold rain into Alabama Wednesday night or Thursday. It could be pretty similar to Bob. the system coming in here over the weekend. A chance of wintry precipitation on the northern edge of the rain shield.
To add a little spice, the 12Z European model shows a deep upper low over Jackson, MS Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Cold core upper low, weatherman's woe. Watch out for dynamic cooling if that model is correct. A cold core upper low would lower thickness values and might bring a better chance of snow to a larger part of the deep south.
Like I have said all along, this is a THREAT to PARTS of the deep south. A threat of some wintry precipitation. We won't be able to be very specific until the system gets on the board next week after Bob is long gone.
Sure, without phasing with the northern branch of the jet that decreases the chance of snow. But a southern branch system with a cold core upper low like the ECMWF suggests sure means you can't rule out snow for a PART of the deep south. Again, I don't know which part yet.
CHRISTMAS: I sure don't trust the GFS in the longer range in this kind of difficult pattern. It is suggesting an upper trough around here in the vicinity of Christmas, but the amount of moisture is in question. We also note the country in general should be warmer at Christmas time as milder Pacific air covers much of the nation. The northeast still looks very cold, however.
Enjoyed being with the gang at WTDR-FM in Oxford this morning for their annual Bake A Christmas program for families in need. Call in and make a pledge if you are in East Alabama... they are at 92.7 FM.
Have a great weekend... try to have a little down time and soak up the real meaning of the season. I will be around and post thoughts on the blog as BOB unfolds....
anybody want to take her place
on December 16, 2005, 2:17 pm
Thanks James for all you do!! I know how, and appreciate your discussions for what may be to come weather wise! You are all the best!!
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