What a Little Sunshine Will Do !

It's always amazing what a little sunshine will do. At early afternoon, central Alabama is enjoying full sun while residents of northwest Alabama are experiencing some cirrus clouds and low clouds have been especially slow to clear the southeast corner of the state. The result looked something like this:
lower 50s across the Tennessee Valley
mid and upper 50s in central Alabama (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Montgomery)
around 60 in southwest Alabama
around 50 (under the low clouds) in southeast Alabama

The latest 12Z GFS model run continued to forecast a dry and cool pattern for Alabama through mid-week as surface high pressure settles into Texas. With the high centered just to our west we should see good radiational cooling on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. A moderation in temperatures occurs toward the end of the week as the surface high migrates eastward. Still looks like moisture will increase late Friday and into Saturday with a cold front coming through Alabama on Christmas day with chances for rain and a reinforcing shot of cold air. The 12Z run even suggests some wrap-around snow flurries which does not usually result in any kind of signficant or measurable snow.

After another couple of days of moderating temperatures, the GFS has some interesting developments toward the last couple of days of 2006. But we all know that we really can't put much faith in model projections that far out. So we'll just watch those trends and see if we can conjure up the right recipe for some winter weather as we enter 2006.

-Brian-
Posted by John T.  
on December 18, 2005, 5:35 pm
It was a pleasant day for Dec.. Honestly, I liked the warmer temps.. Admittingly I'm looking forward to spring already. I'll take it anytime.

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Posted by  
on December 18, 2005, 6:28 pm
As much I love snow...I hate high heat bills!! When you live in a hundred year old house....you do appreciate the 60's & 70's :)

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Posted by John T.  
on December 18, 2005, 8:45 pm
I was born in the 70s & that basicly where I like the temperature for the day time to be. As crazy as it seems I like and have a bigger interest in the spring weather than any other, if you know what I mean. At this very minute I am watching 'Twister Chasers' on the National Geographic Ch. & loving it. Simply amazing stuff.

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Posted by Josh  
on December 18, 2005, 8:58 pm
Yeah that's a cool tornado.


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Posted by John T.  
on December 18, 2005, 9:53 pm
THANKS SO MUCH FOR THOSE SITES JOSH! Are you as a big tornado enthuseist as I am?

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Posted by Josh  
on December 18, 2005, 11:54 pm
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
925 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2005

EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY)...
A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY
AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CONUS.
WE MIGHT EVEN SEE A DAY OR TWO WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

A PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL DIG A NEW TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
NEXT WEEKEND. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW DEEP THE TROUGH DIGS AND HOW
MUCH COLD AIR IS PUSHED DOWN AS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE REDEVELOPS.
I INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SATURDAY AND CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT. DON`T GET YOUR HOPES TOO FAR UP...RIGHT NOW THIS IS ALL
LIQUID PRECIP. FOR THE MOMENT...WILL GO ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT I WON`T BE SURPRISED IF WE HAVE TO DROP FURTHER.

ONE NOTE...YOU MAY NOTICE THAT CRITICAL THICKNESSES ARE MET ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...AND THE GFS DOES HAVE LIGHT PRECIP. BUT SFC TEMPS
ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL THE MOISTURE IS IN
THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS...NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WE`LL KEEP
WATCHING THOUGH.
-------------------------------

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
338 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2005

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS).

GRADUAL MODERATION OF AIRMASS CONTINUES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS BACK UP TO NEAR 60 BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARMTH IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AND NOTHING BUT LIQUID WILL FALL. A WHITE CHRISTMAS
LOOKS LIKE IT PASSED US BY AGAIN.

GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE WAVERED ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS TYPICAL OF FORECAST 7 DAYS OUT. FURTHER
REFINING OF THE TIMING WILL BE NECESSARY. ADDED MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER DUE TO SOME AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. BUT LIKE I MENTIONED...THIS IS DAY 7.

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Posted by dawn  
on December 19, 2005, 12:24 am
Guess i will have to keep dreaming of a white christmas. Maybe next year!

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Posted by  
on December 19, 2005, 3:53 am
we will get snow one year!!!! LOL

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