Light Snow To The West

December 19, 2005, 3:24 pm
Posted by James Spann in Weather Discussions
Rating: 0/5   Votes : 0
The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

First off, as usual the GFS MOS for today was way too warm. It has the usual 50s and 30s. The temperature as I write this in Huntsville is only 40 degrees, and Birmingham is peaking at 47. No 50s today. And, no 50s tomorrow or Wednesday.

HOPE: The system we named "Hope" a week ago is producing a fairly large area of light snow over parts of Texas and Oklahoma. Oklahoma City is reporting light snow and 28 degrees right now. Winter weather advisories are in effect for that region. Flurries have also been reported in Arkansas today.

Hope will move across Alabama tomorrow night, and will bring a batch of clouds. More than likely, most of the light snow will not reach the ground due to the lack of moisture. I fully expect a few families to report light snow or flurries tomorrow night, but it should not amount to much. Too bad the moisture is cut off; that is a nice little short wave.

COLD NIGHTS: We are looking at mid 20s in here the next couple of nights. Colder spots will do low 20s... we might even hear of teens in isolated pockets across north Alabama. We will have a hard time reaching the mid 40s tomorrow afternoon. Forgot those MOS products.

We do expect a warm-up at the end of the week... mid to upper 50s are likely by Friday and Saturday.

CHRISTMAS WEEKEND: A cold front will bring the chance of a little light rain in here late Saturday and Saturday night, but it doesn't look like a major rain producer. Colder air returns on Christmas day... looks like we hold in the 40s all day. The pattern looks fairly cold for much of the week between Christmas and New Years Day.

Will have the next map discussion video on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow. Once again, if you are headed out of town be safe and have a WONDERFUL Christmas!
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Posted by  
on December 19, 2005, 3:31 pm
I love this cold sunshiny weather, as long as the wind isn't blowing.

Merry Christmas!!

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Posted by  
on December 19, 2005, 3:33 pm
that wind will bite!! brrr!

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Posted by  
on December 19, 2005, 4:31 pm
Yea thoes MOS numbers are crazy;)if you look at the weather channel they have us with 60's Friday and Saturday I think they are crazy alt="!)" />Let's hope this cold pattern will stay here for January:):):)

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Posted by  
on December 19, 2005, 4:35 pm
off to my oldest's christmas band concert!! Y'all stay warm, it is chilly out there -

michael have fun at the christmas party!!

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Posted by  
on December 19, 2005, 4:52 pm
I have a feeling January may hold a few surprises for us here in No Central Alabama.

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Posted by   www
on December 19, 2005, 6:00 pm
Well Hope gave us nothing but maybe on the 18Z run the little wave Christmas Eve looks stronger and even though that means rain to start maybe it means a little flurry action on the backside on Christmas is it strong enough. It does look cold Christmas.

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Posted by Brent  
on December 19, 2005, 6:05 pm
Low 60's on Friday and Saturday look very reasonable. I watched all the mets on the news this evening and they all had around 60 both days, then cooler on Christmas.

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Posted by  
on December 19, 2005, 6:09 pm
does this run of the 18z mean possiably some snow sence the temps have been off? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/ima
ges/gfs_slp_126l.gif

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Posted by   www
on December 19, 2005, 6:45 pm
Well it would mean an changover to snow over north alabama but it is clipper coming south and usually they don't have much moisture with them.

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Posted by  
on December 19, 2005, 7:26 pm
Does DREAMING of Snow mean anything to anyone? I wrote a email last week that stated we would not here the word snow this week, well I guess Hope is gone. I bet the models are showing a good chance for snow next week, I better go and buy some Bread! The point is this, we get our HOPES up based on model output. I am tried of someone telling me that there is a chance of snow a week or two out. Snowfall in alabama happens at the spur of the moment.

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Posted by Jason  
on December 19, 2005, 7:50 pm
What wrong with getting our hopes up?

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Posted by Brandon  
on December 19, 2005, 7:50 pm
Yes I tend to get my hopes up on model content, but never post anything negative about a forecast gone sour. The reason is because in these discussions both James and Brian say not to bank on the solutions put out by the GFS, NAM or European models. It is not reliable that far out. They are simply explaining the models for us weather junkies, but I have never heard either one of them say its going to snow in 12 days. I do, however, recall them saying that there is no credibility to these models they are discussing.

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Posted by Steve  
on December 19, 2005, 7:57 pm
There is nothing wrong with getting our hopes up, but we can't base our hopes on a behind the scenes blog either. If they say its going to snow on TV then we may have HOPE!

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Posted by Jason  
on December 19, 2005, 8:00 pm
You're right brandon. I don't know where some other people get their info and say otherwise. The 18z looks better for snow than the 12z!

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Posted by Brandon  
on December 19, 2005, 8:02 pm
Yeah it does...but like chris said, its a clipper system and traditionally they do not carry much moisture. Interesting sceanrio though...24 years without a white christmas and still looking for the first!

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Posted by John T.  
on December 19, 2005, 8:08 pm
Well the only thing I could suggest is stop reading this blog. This is why most of us like reading hear. They give us outlooks. I again, never get my hopes up on snow. If you live in AL. & you do then....oh well, what can anyone say to you. James is just doing his job & that all we ask of him. I frankly am ready for Spring allready, however, I know we have to go thru Winter first & the threats of snow. I dont' understand why people get their preasure up and irate when they talk about snow, yes some do go crazy when it happens, if not before, but they do the same in rain. Thats their own.....you know what. People just relax, its not tornado weather at least. Its just simply Al. weather. SO MYSTERIOUS & thats what is fun about it. Controlled by mother nature,thankfully!

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Posted by Tammy  
on December 19, 2005, 9:28 pm
I Agree with ya john Thank god its not tornadoes i hate even the thought of thoughs things... i watched wvua news for tuscaloosa lastnight cause 3340 was a little late coming on and he was saying maybe some thunderstorms xmas eve...i sure hope not but weather channel is saying in the 60's sat. what do yall think by looking at the models ya think we could get storms?
anyways crosses fingers for snow maybe our next storm can be called "lucky" and we will get snow but i know only if were lucky around here oh well who knows just maybe next year it will snow

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Posted by Brent  
on December 19, 2005, 9:32 pm
As of now, Christmas Eve looks like just a little light rain, no significant rain, and certainly no thunderstorms. It looks moisture starved. We will be warm enough for storms though, I just don't see it right now.

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