Welcome To Winter

Winter “officially” begins tomorrow at 12:35 p.m. CST. This is the moment when the earth is at a point in its orbit where the northern hemisphere is most inclined away from the Sun. This causes the Sun to appear at its farthest below the celestial equator. Solstice is a Latin borrowing and means "sun stand", referring to the appearance that the Sun's noontime elevation change stops its progress, either northerly or southerly.

Wednesday is the shortest day and the longest night of the year. In terms of weather, most meteorologists consider the winter season the months of December, January, and February (meteorological winter).
Based on average temperatures, the coldest weather in Alabama comes from January 5 through January 26 when our “normal” low is 32 degrees. High temperatures during that stretch are in the low 50s. But we have to remember, those are simply averages and don’t really reflect sensible weather. For example, the coldest temperature on record here was seen on February 13, 1899 when the mercury reached ten degrees below zero. And, our biggest snow came during the “Blizzard of ‘93” when 13 inches fell on March 13-14, 1993. These two events were well past that “coldest window” from January 5-26.

So, what is ahead for the rest of the winter? Sure seems like a pattern is setting up that favors colder than normal temperatures for the eastern third of the nation (including Alabama and the southeast U.S.). And, with an active southern stream in place you have to think there will be a few threats for snow or ice along the way. That isn’t very unusual, one or two winter weather threats can be expected around here most seasons. Of course, not all threats become real events. But you have to get the idea we need to settle in for a long winter season of fun and games here in the weather office!

And, yes, we have been watching the GFS in the last two runs showing the rain to snow setup over the coming Christmas weekend. Could this really happen? Stay tuned... I will go through this possibility on the morning map video discussion and blog post in a few hours. It will be up by 6:30 a.m.!
Posted by Josh  
on December 19, 2005, 10:58 pm
YES, RAIN to SNOW?? :)
Rain showers Christmas morning at 6AM:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0
_132.shtml

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West Alabama change to few snow showers Christmas afternoon 12PM:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0
_138.shtml

Few snow flurries Christmas Evening 6PM:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0
_144.shtml


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Posted by  
on December 19, 2005, 11:28 pm
I'm not getting excited yet..... My husband swears the GFS model has a mind of a woman..every 6 hours it changes its mind :)

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Posted by Josh  
on December 19, 2005, 11:29 pm
Here is the 5000 feet above sea level temps with 6 hour liquid precip total for Christmas afternoon at 12PM. If this fell as snow, say about 3 hours, the northern part of the state could get 2 inches of snow. :)
But you know this is long out and it will change it could be just rain showers.
The Map:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/ima
ges/gfs_p06_138l.gif


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Posted by  
on December 20, 2005, 5:17 am
Winter Begins.......... meaning higher heating bills.
:( :( :(

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Posted by  
on December 20, 2005, 6:21 am
I feel your pain Dave :(

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Posted by New Mike  
on December 20, 2005, 6:26 am
But LOWER Air Conditioning bills!! LOL!!! :)

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Posted by   www
on December 20, 2005, 8:02 am
So much for global warming!

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