Anyone Dreaming Of A You Know What?

The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

"I'm dreaming of a white Christmas
Just like the ones I used to know
Where the treetops glisten,
and children listen
To hear sleigh bells in the snow"

Only two kind of people forecast snow on Christmas morning in Alabama: fools and strangers. I am no stranger; I have lived here all my life, with the exception of a few years in Dallas in the 80s. And, I do my best to stay away from the other option although I have certainly been there at times over the years. (not regarding snow at Christmas, but other busted forecasts).

Do I think there will be snow on the ground Christmas morning? NO. Is there a chance of snow flurries Christmas morning? YES.

Before we even go there... lets deal with other issues:

BIG FREEZE: GFS MOS continues to stink. WAY below guidance values this morning... as I write this at 5:30, Birmingham reports 24, while Huntsville is down to 21. At Mentone (atop Lookout Mountain at an elevation of 1,765 feet) the temperature was 19 degrees.

Up in Jackson, TN the current observation is 14 degrees. Ouch. We will have a hard time reaching the mid 40s today. Factor in a north wind this morning and wind chill values right now are in the teens as far south as Birmingham.

I have a good bit of e-mail from people last week furious we were forecasting these kind of numbers, while "other web sites and media outlets" were forecasting highs near 60 and lows near 40 for the middle of this week. HMMM. Beware of the GFS MOS, that is all I can say, and those who follow blindly.

HOPE: This storm is clearly on the board and still bringing snow to parts of Oklahoma and Texas. Oklahoma City continues to report light snow this morning. The strong short wave rotates through Alabama tonight, and will bring clouds and maybe even a few flurries. The low level air is very dry (dewpoints in the teens), so it is unlikely those snow flakes will reach the surface. But, I bet we do get a few reports of flurries across the southern two-thirds of the state tonight.

WARMER DAYS: We should see a nice warming trend beginning Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 50s. Upper 50s are possible by Friday. Both of those days should feature a good deal of sunshine.

CHRISTMAS WEEKEND: No doubt the models are trending deeper and colder with the storm system over the weekend. BUT... moisture is limited, and low level temperatures (2,000 feet and below) won't be all that cold. The lower thickness values are the result of cold air aloft.

We will continue to mention the chance of some rain Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. And, yes, we will mention the chance of flurries Christmas morning. But again, I just don't think this will bring a "White Christmas" in the classic sense. It would be pretty cool to have a few flurries, though. Just don't get too excited for now...

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: A parade of systems will make for lots of fun and games in the weather office. The GFS advertises stormy potential for the middle of next week, and again around New Years weekend. I am not convinced there will be enough cold air around for wintry precipitation, but I guess you can't rule it out either. The 384 hour panels are really interesting with a strong trough in the southwest U.S. and the Polar vortex over Hudson Bay. If by chance that happens to verify, that will open up a real can of worms.

Plenty of fun and games in the weather office in weeks to come.

TODAY: Wow... Christmas indeed is getting close. This is the last day of school for our 8 year old, and my final Christmas party is today... I am looking forward to spending some time with everyone at out at Monclair Baptist Medical Center today. Once again, be safe if you are hitting the road today!