Hope Hangs Around

The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

COLD AGAIN: At 3:00 Birmingham reported 42, and Cullman only 37. GFS MOS way too warm again. Forget the 50s and 30s. Some north Alabama communities today will go in the book with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens.

HOPE HANGS AROUND: Check out the Shreveport radar... Hope (I named this storm about a week ago in a sleepless state) is producing cold rain as far west as the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex this afternoon.. and as far east as the Mississippi River. Shreveport reported 39 degrees with light rain at 3:00.

Clouds from Hope are slow to move into Alabama; clouds really thicken west of I-55 in Mississippi. I still think we see some clouds tonight, but the chance of any snow flakes reaching the ground is so small it really isn't worth mentioning in the forecast. Birmingham's dewpoint this hour is 12 degrees. Talk about dry air!

Another very cold night is ahead. If the clouds are thin, or don't move in here, many spots will reach the upper teens. If clouds do arrive, that should keep us in the 20 to 25 degree range early tomorrow.

We should warm into the 50s on Thursday and Friday.

CHRISTMAS WEEKEND STORM: This one is producing lots of buzz on the meteorological streets. The 12Z GFS comes in with a different look; the main low moves from near Jackson to Nashville. This would mean a smaller chance of snow flurries on Christmas day, and a greater chance of thunderstorms on the front side of the storm Saturday night into early Christmas morning. If this were March, I would be concerned about severe storms.

But, this is December and the air will be relatively cool and stable. I still think we might hear some thunder Saturday night.. and not from Santa's sleigh on the roof.

Since the 12Z GFS is a bit of an outlier, I won't depart much from the morning forecast and bring in colder air on Sunday with a chance of light rain or snow flurries on the back side of the system. If the 12Z GFS happens to be correct, any flurries would wait until Sunday night or even Monday morning.

Remember, the lower 2,000 feet of the atmosphere will be relatively "warm", so the chance of accumulating snow looks small at this point. The thickness values are low due to the cold air aloft associated with the strong upper trough.

But remember, cold core upper low, weatherman's woe. This thing will probably offer a surprise or two.

NEXT WEEK: Little confidence in details of the various short waves moving through the upper flow. Temperatures still look below normal, but nothing extremely cold for the last week of the year. See the video for the latest NAO outlook.

Was a little late in getting in from the Montclair Christmas party this afternoon... so this post is a few minutes late.... Had a great time with the gang over there.....