The afternoon video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Nice little mid-week storm in the always tricky split flow regime. We will mention the chance of some light rain at times tonight and tomorrow, with the best chance of getting wet coming for areas south of Birmingham. Rain is likely statewide Wednesday, and the 12Z NAM is spitting out almost 1.5 inches of rain here.
Late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning the critical thickness values drop southward, giving the snow fans a little hope for something on the tail end of the system. It is possible we could see a little light snow or flurries late Wednesday nignt or early Thursday morning, but the best chance would be north of a line from Vernon to Cullman to Scottsboro. Even up there it doesn't look like it will amount to much now. These southern branch systems in a split-flow are very hard to deal with... always great potential for forecast busts.
A pretty good chance the sun comes out in decent supply Friday and Saturday before clouds return Sunday. I expect a good rain early next week, with the potential for a major change to colder weather in the Febraury 9-12 time frame. I do not like the way the 12Z GFS handles this... see the video for details. Watch that NAO negative spike around February 10... that is very important.
Enjoyed seeing the second graders over at Bluff Park Elementary this afternoon... about to dig into this nice cake!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Nice little mid-week storm in the always tricky split flow regime. We will mention the chance of some light rain at times tonight and tomorrow, with the best chance of getting wet coming for areas south of Birmingham. Rain is likely statewide Wednesday, and the 12Z NAM is spitting out almost 1.5 inches of rain here.
Late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning the critical thickness values drop southward, giving the snow fans a little hope for something on the tail end of the system. It is possible we could see a little light snow or flurries late Wednesday nignt or early Thursday morning, but the best chance would be north of a line from Vernon to Cullman to Scottsboro. Even up there it doesn't look like it will amount to much now. These southern branch systems in a split-flow are very hard to deal with... always great potential for forecast busts.
A pretty good chance the sun comes out in decent supply Friday and Saturday before clouds return Sunday. I expect a good rain early next week, with the potential for a major change to colder weather in the Febraury 9-12 time frame. I do not like the way the 12Z GFS handles this... see the video for details. Watch that NAO negative spike around February 10... that is very important.
Enjoyed seeing the second graders over at Bluff Park Elementary this afternoon... about to dig into this nice cake!
on January 31, 2005, 11:56 pm
I live in Tyrone, GA, not too far from the NWS office in Peachtree City. I enjoy reading you posts. None of the local mets here give us anything more than their evening on air weather report. I also enjoy watching your weahter reports on 33/40 when I am in Birmingham on business (usually about once a month). I have one question. You seem to use the GFS as the primary model you refernce in your discussions. It would seem to me that performance of the GFS in recent months has been terrible, even worse than usual. I'm not trying to be overly critical and to be fair I have noticed that you sometimes mention that you don't agree with it's solutions. I'm just wondering why there seems to be such a heavy bias in the met community to use and reference a model that seems to an amatuer observer to be out of touch with what is going on in the actual weather. Again thanks for the sevice you provide for guys like me that can never get enough weather. Don't worry, I do take your advice and pull away from the computer and enjoy the family that God has blessed me with. Lastly, great call last weekend on the ice storm. We got hammered over here in Georgia, but it appears you called it for Alabama about as well as you can forecast a wedge.
Reply to this comment