Rain on the Way

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Clouds increased overnight as an upper level disturbance was positioned over eastern Texas with a cold front located along the Mississippi River. This disturbance and front will move through the area this afternoon and tonight. The greatest likelihood of rain will be this afternoon and this evening. And there might be a few rumbles of thunder mixed in with the rain. In fact, southern Alabama is in an area outlooked for a slight risk of severe weather today and tonight. Instablity will be strong along the Gulf coast with abundant moisture as dewpoints reach into the 60s with air temperatures in the 70s. Combined with good divergence aloft, there is a risk for supercell thunderstorms with the main threat expected to be damaging wind.

Wrap around moisture will keep Alabama cloudy and dreary while cold air advection will keep temperatures from changing much. Temperatures should remain in the 40s Christmas day with drizzle and light rain for much of the day. With a cold core system, temperatures aloft are certainly cold enough for snow but the boundary layer - the lowest couple of thousand feet - is expected to remain warm enough to keep the precipitation liquid. A few snow flurries are not out of the question and this will be one to watch carefully to see how quickly the air near the surface cools.

Dry weather returns for the first of the week and temperatures are expected to moderate fairly quickly. Another rain chance returns for Wednesday and Thursday and again on Saturday as the GFS is forecasting a rather progressive system of low pressure centers and cold fronts - one about every two and a half days. This keeps us on the roller coaster of cold days followed by a couple of milder days through the end of 2005.

Peeking into the longer range, the overall pattern of a long wave trough on the east coast with a fairly high amplitude ridge on the west coast seems to stay with us through the first week of January. This will keep us with below normal temperatures for the most part.

Merry Christmas eve to everyone. God bless.

-Brian-