The Wednesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
My thermometer is showing 32 degrees as I write this, and the sky has become clear. Lots and lots of reports of light snow last night across the northern part of the state, from Birmingham on north. A number of car tops and decks got a dusting.
Sunshine returns in full force today, but a cool breeze continues. I am not going to be suckered into the MOS forecast lows for early tomorrow... in the upper 30s. If you recall we did that last week and had a bad forecast bust; I think with a clear sky and calm wind many places reach the upper 20s tomorrow morning.
We warm-up big time during the day tomorrow with mid 60s by afternoon.
NEXT RAIN: Still looks like the rain event comes at the start of the weekend. The latest GFS run in house (06Z) is a little weaker with the vort max moving from the Texas panhandle to near Indianapolis. We will mention showers on Saturday... maybe a little thunder but severe weather won't happen due to relatively stable air, and the lack of good upper air dynamics. Rainfall will probably be close to 1/2 inch for most spots.
The surface front will probably stall Saturday night as it becomes parallel to the upper air winds. If that thing stalls over us, Sunday might be mostly cloudy. I don't think it will rain Sunday, even if the front stalls out around here, but we might have to revise our ongoing forecast with warmer temperatures and more cloud cover. Then, the new GFS brings in another impulse in here early next week with more rain. I do think we will need to bring rain back into the forecast for Monday and Monday night.
LONG RANGE: Still looks like we get a wet weather system in here about every three to four days for the rest of January. The flow aloft will generally be out of the southwest, so temperatures will average above normal, with occasional shots of colder air.
AO/NAO: Hmmmm... the AO (Arctic Oscillation) is going strongly negative in the 15 day GFS outlook. That could deliver the brutally cold air now over Russia and Siberia over the pole into the northern part of North America. The big question is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)... it begins to trend negative about the time February begins. If both the AO and the NAO go strongly negative, you have to think February might be pretty cold around here. See the post below I wrote last night if you want to learn more about teleconnections... and be sure and watch today's video for the charts. I also have some snow pictures from last night from viewers featured...
I will have the next map discussion video on the server by 3:30 this afternoon!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
My thermometer is showing 32 degrees as I write this, and the sky has become clear. Lots and lots of reports of light snow last night across the northern part of the state, from Birmingham on north. A number of car tops and decks got a dusting.
Sunshine returns in full force today, but a cool breeze continues. I am not going to be suckered into the MOS forecast lows for early tomorrow... in the upper 30s. If you recall we did that last week and had a bad forecast bust; I think with a clear sky and calm wind many places reach the upper 20s tomorrow morning.
We warm-up big time during the day tomorrow with mid 60s by afternoon.
NEXT RAIN: Still looks like the rain event comes at the start of the weekend. The latest GFS run in house (06Z) is a little weaker with the vort max moving from the Texas panhandle to near Indianapolis. We will mention showers on Saturday... maybe a little thunder but severe weather won't happen due to relatively stable air, and the lack of good upper air dynamics. Rainfall will probably be close to 1/2 inch for most spots.
The surface front will probably stall Saturday night as it becomes parallel to the upper air winds. If that thing stalls over us, Sunday might be mostly cloudy. I don't think it will rain Sunday, even if the front stalls out around here, but we might have to revise our ongoing forecast with warmer temperatures and more cloud cover. Then, the new GFS brings in another impulse in here early next week with more rain. I do think we will need to bring rain back into the forecast for Monday and Monday night.
LONG RANGE: Still looks like we get a wet weather system in here about every three to four days for the rest of January. The flow aloft will generally be out of the southwest, so temperatures will average above normal, with occasional shots of colder air.
AO/NAO: Hmmmm... the AO (Arctic Oscillation) is going strongly negative in the 15 day GFS outlook. That could deliver the brutally cold air now over Russia and Siberia over the pole into the northern part of North America. The big question is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)... it begins to trend negative about the time February begins. If both the AO and the NAO go strongly negative, you have to think February might be pretty cold around here. See the post below I wrote last night if you want to learn more about teleconnections... and be sure and watch today's video for the charts. I also have some snow pictures from last night from viewers featured...
I will have the next map discussion video on the server by 3:30 this afternoon!