Changeable Weather Continues

The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Temperatures will drop quickly tonight. With a clear sky, light wind, and dewpoints in the low 20s (Birmingham's dewpoint as I write this is 23)... I think we are headed for the upper 20s by daybreak tomorrow morning. The GFS says 37 and the NAM says 38, but I think something more like 29 is best for an average low. Needless to say, the numbers will be all over the place tomorrow morning depending on location and elevation.

Look for a quick warm-up tomorrow as we soar into the 60s. Friday will stay dry and mild, but clouds will begin to show up.

WEEKEND: We will still mention the chance of showers on Saturday. A thunderstorm or two is possible, but with the lack of really unstable air, and a fairly weak upper trough passing north of us, severe weather or heavy rain is not likely. Rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch are a good bet.

The surface front will run out of gas and stall somewhere over central Alabama. So, temperatures on Sunday should stay above normal, and we will probably have some clouds around. I think Sunday will be dry.

Yet another round of rain and storms will roll in here Monday and Monday night of next week as another impulse moves into Alabama from the west, interacting with the stalled front.

LONG RANGE: The GFS indeed shows a big shot of very cold air moving down into the U.S. toward the end of the month. For the moment, the model has the deep, cold trough over the western half of the nation. I am not sure that is the correct position; it might be more to the east. One way or another, looks like much of the nation might be going into the deep freeze about the time February gets here.

MOSCOW COLD: The temperature in Moscow is expected to drop to 35 degrees below zero (F) in the next couple of days, their coldest temperature since 1979. Arctic Village, AK reported 38 below zero this morning. We will surely keep an eye on that cold air.

I will have the next map discussion video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
Posted by  
on January 18, 2006, 3:47 pm
I have this feeling that Feb will be the month we snow lovers have been waiting for for several years now. It's Alabama's turn!!

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Posted by  
on January 18, 2006, 4:05 pm
Looking at another Weather forum, they are discussing some analogs for the -PNA and -NAO in some past February's, and most of them do show a strong lean to the trough setting up over the west, with a few however showing a cold east.
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=79077

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