The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Anyone recall the song from which this line comes?
"February made me shiver, with every newspaper I'd deliver..."
First off, lets discuss the short term:
Rain should taper off by midday today. My rain bucket shows 0.63" as I write this at 5:45 a.m. Up in the Shoals, amounts to 3 inches produced flash flooding late last night with some roads closed.
Temperatures will be a little challenging today; looks like we might hold steady this morning in the upper 50s, then falling into the low 50s this afternoon. By daybreak tomorrow we should be in the 35 to 40 degree range as the sky finally clears.
The middle of the week will be fairly quite here, a strong clipper will bring very cold air to the northeast U.S., and we will catch just the far southern edge of that airmass. Looks like we will mostly have highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s for midweek, about normal for late January in Alabama. Morning temperatures will be nearing the freezing mark for the colder valleys Wednesday and Thursday.
NEXT RAIN: It is begnining to look like our next rain will come late in the weekend. The initial ULL (upper level low) now south of San Diego, will weaken greatly and lift toward the Great Lakes late in the week. It now looks like this feature will be weak enough and far enough to the north not to bring rain to Alabama on Friday. A stronger system will come out of the southwest U.S. late in the week, and will bring rain and storms to the state by Saturday night and Sunday. For the moment it looks like we can escape with no rain during the day Saturday.
FEBRUARY: Watch the video for details on teleconnections. No doubt the AO and the NAO will be negative as we get into the new month. With the vast amount of cold air around the pole, you have to figure much of the nation will be considerably colder in February. I am not sure why so many people celebrate this... the gas bill that comes in your mailbox in March might make you pass out.
The GFS/ECMWF will be all over the road in trying to deal with this; we won't even try to get into specifics right now. The 06Z GFS does bring a cold 1045 high down into the U.S. in the Feb 3-6 time frame, while a southwest flow aloft continues across the deep south. I have seen output that dumps really cold air down in here with a long wave trough over the eastern U.S. The model will struggle with the pattern change, like us forecasters. The message is simply for now it should be colder next month. We can tell you how cold a little later...
ON THE ROAD: I have a fun road trip today... J.B. Elliott and I are headed up to Cherokee County in Northeast Alabama to see the kids at Sand Rock School, up on Lookout Mountain. We will be back in time to get the afternoon video posted by 3:30 this afternoon...
STORM ALERT 2006: Don't forget our annual severe weather tour across the state begins next week:
http://beta.abc3340.com/external.hrb?p=stormalert&w=1
We hope to see you along the way!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Anyone recall the song from which this line comes?
"February made me shiver, with every newspaper I'd deliver..."
First off, lets discuss the short term:
Rain should taper off by midday today. My rain bucket shows 0.63" as I write this at 5:45 a.m. Up in the Shoals, amounts to 3 inches produced flash flooding late last night with some roads closed.
Temperatures will be a little challenging today; looks like we might hold steady this morning in the upper 50s, then falling into the low 50s this afternoon. By daybreak tomorrow we should be in the 35 to 40 degree range as the sky finally clears.
The middle of the week will be fairly quite here, a strong clipper will bring very cold air to the northeast U.S., and we will catch just the far southern edge of that airmass. Looks like we will mostly have highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s for midweek, about normal for late January in Alabama. Morning temperatures will be nearing the freezing mark for the colder valleys Wednesday and Thursday.
NEXT RAIN: It is begnining to look like our next rain will come late in the weekend. The initial ULL (upper level low) now south of San Diego, will weaken greatly and lift toward the Great Lakes late in the week. It now looks like this feature will be weak enough and far enough to the north not to bring rain to Alabama on Friday. A stronger system will come out of the southwest U.S. late in the week, and will bring rain and storms to the state by Saturday night and Sunday. For the moment it looks like we can escape with no rain during the day Saturday.
FEBRUARY: Watch the video for details on teleconnections. No doubt the AO and the NAO will be negative as we get into the new month. With the vast amount of cold air around the pole, you have to figure much of the nation will be considerably colder in February. I am not sure why so many people celebrate this... the gas bill that comes in your mailbox in March might make you pass out.
The GFS/ECMWF will be all over the road in trying to deal with this; we won't even try to get into specifics right now. The 06Z GFS does bring a cold 1045 high down into the U.S. in the Feb 3-6 time frame, while a southwest flow aloft continues across the deep south. I have seen output that dumps really cold air down in here with a long wave trough over the eastern U.S. The model will struggle with the pattern change, like us forecasters. The message is simply for now it should be colder next month. We can tell you how cold a little later...
ON THE ROAD: I have a fun road trip today... J.B. Elliott and I are headed up to Cherokee County in Northeast Alabama to see the kids at Sand Rock School, up on Lookout Mountain. We will be back in time to get the afternoon video posted by 3:30 this afternoon...
STORM ALERT 2006: Don't forget our annual severe weather tour across the state begins next week:
http://beta.abc3340.com/external.hrb?p=stormalert&w=1
We hope to see you along the way!
on January 23, 2006, 6:12 am
Reply to this comment