The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
What a beautiful day. Blue sky, sunshine, and temperatures in the low 60s. The weather stays dry through mid-week, but a very cold upper trough over the northeast U.S. will send some cooler air down this way. Highs will drop into the 50s tomorrow and Thursday, and early morning lows will be below the freezing mark in many areas. The coldest morning will come early Thursday. Both the NAM and the GFS are showing 27 degrees for Birmingham; the colder valleys should drop into the low 20s.
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM: Clouds returns on Saturday, and we will continue to highlight rain and storms for Saturday night and Sunday. The 12Z GFS suggests the best threat of wet weather will come from about 6:00 p.m. Saturday through 3:00 p.m. Sunday. Another soaking is likely, with most spots seeing between one and two inches of rain. Based on the strength of the upper air system, strong to severe storms could be a problem as well. Not sure the air can become unstable enough for a big severe weather problem, but it is not out of the question. We will keep an eye on the situation.
Cooler and drier air returns to the state early next week.
LONG RANGE: Still plenty of evidence to suggest colder and unsettled weather in February for much of the nation. A negative phase of the NAO/AO should bring some cold air down into the U.S., and the GFS continues to hint at an active southern branch of the jet stream. Should make for some fun days in the weather office. But, for new readers, there is very little skill in a SPECIFIC weather forecast beyond seven days. We simply look at trends beyond seven days... and there reasonable skill in doing that based on teleconnections.
Thanks to the 1st graders at Myrtlewood Elementary School down in Fosters today for a great visit (the school is just west of the Black Warrior River, about 10 miles southwest of Tuscaloosa. They will be featured today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 on the KIDCAM.
I will have the next map discussion video on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
What a beautiful day. Blue sky, sunshine, and temperatures in the low 60s. The weather stays dry through mid-week, but a very cold upper trough over the northeast U.S. will send some cooler air down this way. Highs will drop into the 50s tomorrow and Thursday, and early morning lows will be below the freezing mark in many areas. The coldest morning will come early Thursday. Both the NAM and the GFS are showing 27 degrees for Birmingham; the colder valleys should drop into the low 20s.
WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM: Clouds returns on Saturday, and we will continue to highlight rain and storms for Saturday night and Sunday. The 12Z GFS suggests the best threat of wet weather will come from about 6:00 p.m. Saturday through 3:00 p.m. Sunday. Another soaking is likely, with most spots seeing between one and two inches of rain. Based on the strength of the upper air system, strong to severe storms could be a problem as well. Not sure the air can become unstable enough for a big severe weather problem, but it is not out of the question. We will keep an eye on the situation.
Cooler and drier air returns to the state early next week.
LONG RANGE: Still plenty of evidence to suggest colder and unsettled weather in February for much of the nation. A negative phase of the NAO/AO should bring some cold air down into the U.S., and the GFS continues to hint at an active southern branch of the jet stream. Should make for some fun days in the weather office. But, for new readers, there is very little skill in a SPECIFIC weather forecast beyond seven days. We simply look at trends beyond seven days... and there reasonable skill in doing that based on teleconnections.
Thanks to the 1st graders at Myrtlewood Elementary School down in Fosters today for a great visit (the school is just west of the Black Warrior River, about 10 miles southwest of Tuscaloosa. They will be featured today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 on the KIDCAM.
I will have the next map discussion video on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...
on January 24, 2006, 6:28 pm
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