A Frosty Night Ahead

January 25, 2006, 3:02 pm
Posted by James Spann in Weather Discussions
Rating: 0/5   Votes : 0
The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

How about those low dewpoints! Birmingham down to 16; Muscle Shoals down to 13. If the wind can die down tonight, temperatures should drop like a rock. The GFS shows 28, the NAM shows 27 for tonight's low in Birmingham. I am sure valley locations will be colder where the wind can go calm.

Dry and cool weather continues through Friday.

THE WEEKEND: The ole 12Z GFS is coming in with a different look on the weekend storm. The run is a little weaker, a little faster, and has the system displaced much more to the north. That would tend to lessen the severe weather threat, but I am not convinced that is the correct solution. For now I will stand by the older 06Z run and watch the new data come in tonight. One way or another we will have a healthy round of rain and storms on Sunday. Amounts of one to two inches are likely.

Saturday still looks dry, by the way. Showers should begin to arrive or develop by Saturday night as the system approaches.

LONG RANGE: The 12Z GFS continues to show a cold pattern for much of the nation as we get into February. The huge western Canadian ridge still is present, and the run also paints a strong storm coming out of the northern Gulf of Mexico in the February 5-6 time frame. Still looks like the month will be quite an adventure for weather fans here across the Deep South. Check out that 1052 mb high on the map discussion video... it shows up on the 384 GFS panels valid February 9. Again, I am simply saying the pattern will support something like that; we just don't know if it will happen. But, it is surely possible.

Thanks to the 2nd graders over at Briarwood for being a great audience today... be sure and look for them on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00!

The next map discussion video will be on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow... we should be able to provide more clarity on the weekend storm situation. And, be sure and scroll down to read J.B.'s posts today. He is in rare form!
Mail this   Printer friendly   
Posted by   www
on January 25, 2006, 3:31 pm
As long as I don't get rained on while I'm driving to and from the Civic Center for the circus, I'll be all right. There's not much I dislike more than driving I-20 in the rain... or for that matter, driving I-20 at all!!

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on January 25, 2006, 3:33 pm
There is also a 1060mb high at 360 hours out on the 12z GFS run. Does anyone have an idea the maximum amount of mb those highs can reach?

Reply to this comment
Posted by Josh  
on January 25, 2006, 4:00 pm
The highest barometric pressure ever recorded in the USA was 31.85 inches (1078.4 mb) in Northway, Alaska, January 27th, 1989. This was the highest air pressure ever measured in the US, and because most aircraft altimeters are unable to calibrate for such pressure, many flights had to be canceled. This is also a record for North America.

The highest recorded atmospheric pressure in the world, 32.06 inches of mercury (1086 mb), occurred at Tosontsengel, Mongolia, 19 December 2001.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Bama Man  
on January 25, 2006, 4:00 pm
Hey I hope we can get some snow But if we don't I still think we will have a cool to cold month.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on January 25, 2006, 4:21 pm
Thanks Josh....Great info.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Rusty Pitts  
on January 25, 2006, 4:59 pm
The snow may come... We are setting up for a much better chace with the Teleconnetics. The AO and NAO and unstable weather pattern... this is all it takes... Im guessing we will get some chance in the feb 05-07 timeframe.....

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on January 25, 2006, 5:08 pm
Cold will be the word! Snow would just be a super bonus. Now I just have to figure out which days I have to work in that time frame...Rusty, sent you an email. Give me a call.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Josh  
on January 25, 2006, 6:07 pm
Here is my graphic I drew showing the Low pressure center tracks of each run for the weekend system:

http://groups.msn.com/_Secure/0QQDqAngT0IAA5cxNaNEmXk0NDcWs9Uwhv1
sjX2j1z*8r3gpgac2aOOo5!1nRQONmRvuOwY*KJaxPm0Q7P7tfV3fExgR95ea*eaF
XVw4V4K0/weekend.JPG

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on January 25, 2006, 7:37 pm
Recently I had the chance to speak with Phil Klotzbach Research Associate with Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University regarding the upcomong Hurricane Season Updates from his office:

Good morning. Our forecast will be updated at the following times:

We will be issuing seasonal updates of our 2006 Atlantic basin
hurricane forecasts on Tuesday April 4, Wednesday 31 May (to coincide with the
official start of the 2006 hurricane season on 1 June), Thursday 3
August, Friday 1 September and Tuesday 3 October 2006. The 3 August, 1
September and 3 October forecasts will include separate forecasts of
August-only, September-only and October-only Atlantic basin tropical cyclone
activity. A verification and discussion of all 2006 forecasts will be
issued in late November 2006. Our first seasonal hurricane forecast
for the 2007 hurricane season will be issued in early December 2006. All
these forecasts will be available on the web at:
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts.

Sincerely,

Phil Klotzbach

----------------------------------------------------
Phil Klotzbach
Research Associate
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University


Reply to this comment
Posted by Stephanie Honeycutt  
on January 25, 2006, 8:20 pm
JB is awesome!! I love reading his posts!! Keep 'em coming JB :)

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on January 25, 2006, 9:50 pm
FYI
Jim Cantori (Weather Channel) just informed us that there is no sign of cold air making its way to US in the near future. He believes we're in store for the same pattern even into February. A little different story from James and JB. Who's got it right?

Blake

Reply to this comment
Posted by   www
on January 25, 2006, 9:57 pm
Geez Blake, I wish you wouldn't have said that. I used to really like Jim Cantori.

Reply to this comment
Posted by John T.  
on January 25, 2006, 10:45 pm
I'm with you Chris. Who got it right last time? James. As Michael Mills would say, we will just have to wait & see. I know who I'm putting my money on & its not TWC.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on January 26, 2006, 4:36 am
James is rarely right don't yall know that by now.I will be glad when people in this market wake up and realize he's not god.Almost everyone around here thinks he's the best thing since sliced bread.I would bet the farm that Jim Cantori is right.He's not trying to get 3340's ratings up like James.It's all a game if you idiots aint figured it out yet.It's all about the ratings.One day if he ever retires we will get someone here that will tell us the truth.He says he's a man of god but god doesn't like liars.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on January 26, 2006, 10:25 pm
Get a life ******x. Why don't you grow up and stop putting people down. James is just trying to save lives. You won't even put your name on your post; what a chicken. If you are going to say something atleast sign your name.

Reply to this comment
Posted by New Mike  
on January 26, 2006, 6:28 am
Amazing how Mr. *** above wouldn't put his name but did manage to put his email!! LOL

Thanks Mr Edward Potts for your contribution!!

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on January 26, 2006, 6:45 am
Sounds like Mr. Potts has been inhaling a little too much aluminum. I thought only coaches got these kind of attacks. I wonder what kind of ratings James has. Do you know Mr. Potts? I would like to know. Thanks for adding some excitement to this blog! (g)

Blake

Reply to this comment
Posted by Stephanie Honeycutt  
on January 26, 2006, 7:54 am
Funny - I noticed that too. How some people seem to think that us regular "idiots" can't seem to figure out who one really is......... and I am not just talking about Mr. Potts..............

Reply to this comment
Posted by Bama man  
on January 26, 2006, 11:37 am
Hey MR. Potts we are not to judge people only god is so yes James is a man of god. How can you say that he is not?) Why don't you go to his church at hunter street and ask him yourself. WOW Stephanie I wonder who else is in here like that. I can't figure that one out. Please let us know who it might be since you seem to know.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Stephanie Honeycutt  
on January 26, 2006, 12:48 pm
"Bama Man" - I will refrain from comment as to "who" I referred to in my last post. However, might I remind everyone to please use safe internet practices when posting on the blog......

there are some real strange ones out there..........

Reply to this comment
Posted by Bama Man  
on January 26, 2006, 1:49 pm
Yes we do have some STRANGE people out there don't we?)

Reply to this comment
Posted by Clay  
on January 26, 2006, 7:05 pm
Mr. Spann once spoke at my church, and I can truly vouch for the fact that he is a man of God first and foremost, a father and husband second, and THEN a meterologist. Trust me, there are higher worries on his list than someone who got mixed up in a bad forecast.

Reply to this comment