The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
On this last day of January 2006 we will enjoy a bright mid-winter day with ample sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 50s. Tomorrow stays dry, and a warming trend begins. We should be in the 60s tomorrow afternoon. But, be warned much colder air is poised to move in here over the coming weekend.
THURSDAY: A vort max coming out of Texas should bring a round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. They might begin after midnight Wednesday night... for the moment it looks like the main window for rain will come from about 4:00 a.m. through 1:00 p.m. Thursday. Severe weather is not likely, and rainfall amounts around 1/2 inch seem like a good bet.
FRIDAY: The model run consistency is horrible on the development of this next feature. I think the stronger solution is correct you see on the 00Z GFS. A deep surface low moves from the piney woods of East Texas, to a point near Muscle Shoals, and on to Louisville. This would bring a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Deep South, including Alabama, and SPC maintains a severe weather risk on their graphics as well.
The best time for thunderstorms seems to be from about 4:00 p.m. Friday through midnight Friday night. If we can get those high CAPE values in here, wind profiles would suggest a tornado threat will be possible.
A WEEKEND CHILL: Following the round of Friday night storms, much colder air rolls in here over the weekend. In our forecast package, I have a high of 43 on Saturday. It might be a setup where we begin in the upper 40s at daybreak Saturday, and drop to near 40 during the day. It all depends on the cold frontal passage timing; in the forecast I am assuming a frontal passage in the midnight to 3:00 a.m. time frame.
If we do have the deep surface low involved, clouds will be in place all day, and a few snow flurries will be possible over the northern third of Alabama.
By Sunday morning, with a clear sky, we should go well down in the 20s. I have 25 in our forecast package; colder spots should be closer to 20 degrees.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: An impulse will bring the risk of some light rain, mainly to the northern half of the state, on Monday. Doesn't look like a major system at all, and for the moment it looks warm enough for all liquid.
LONG RANGE: The maps still look very, very cold for the eastern one-half of the nation through much of February, generally speaking. Looks like the Arctic boundary might hover across the southern U.S., and if that thing gets wavy then look out for a winter storm threat or two. Stay tuned...
TODAY: I will be speaking to the kids at Meadow View Elementary school in Alabaster... and will be back in the office for the afternoon map discussion video which will be on the server by 3:30 p.m. It will be quite interesting to see how the 12Z model runs handle the Friday/Saturday system.
STORM ALERT 2006: We kick off the show Thursday night in Hamilton at Bevill State... we begin at 7:00 but you might want to show up at 6:00 to get a seat. The place will be packed. Hope to see you there!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
On this last day of January 2006 we will enjoy a bright mid-winter day with ample sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 50s. Tomorrow stays dry, and a warming trend begins. We should be in the 60s tomorrow afternoon. But, be warned much colder air is poised to move in here over the coming weekend.
THURSDAY: A vort max coming out of Texas should bring a round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. They might begin after midnight Wednesday night... for the moment it looks like the main window for rain will come from about 4:00 a.m. through 1:00 p.m. Thursday. Severe weather is not likely, and rainfall amounts around 1/2 inch seem like a good bet.
FRIDAY: The model run consistency is horrible on the development of this next feature. I think the stronger solution is correct you see on the 00Z GFS. A deep surface low moves from the piney woods of East Texas, to a point near Muscle Shoals, and on to Louisville. This would bring a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Deep South, including Alabama, and SPC maintains a severe weather risk on their graphics as well.
The best time for thunderstorms seems to be from about 4:00 p.m. Friday through midnight Friday night. If we can get those high CAPE values in here, wind profiles would suggest a tornado threat will be possible.
A WEEKEND CHILL: Following the round of Friday night storms, much colder air rolls in here over the weekend. In our forecast package, I have a high of 43 on Saturday. It might be a setup where we begin in the upper 40s at daybreak Saturday, and drop to near 40 during the day. It all depends on the cold frontal passage timing; in the forecast I am assuming a frontal passage in the midnight to 3:00 a.m. time frame.
If we do have the deep surface low involved, clouds will be in place all day, and a few snow flurries will be possible over the northern third of Alabama.
By Sunday morning, with a clear sky, we should go well down in the 20s. I have 25 in our forecast package; colder spots should be closer to 20 degrees.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: An impulse will bring the risk of some light rain, mainly to the northern half of the state, on Monday. Doesn't look like a major system at all, and for the moment it looks warm enough for all liquid.
LONG RANGE: The maps still look very, very cold for the eastern one-half of the nation through much of February, generally speaking. Looks like the Arctic boundary might hover across the southern U.S., and if that thing gets wavy then look out for a winter storm threat or two. Stay tuned...
TODAY: I will be speaking to the kids at Meadow View Elementary school in Alabaster... and will be back in the office for the afternoon map discussion video which will be on the server by 3:30 p.m. It will be quite interesting to see how the 12Z model runs handle the Friday/Saturday system.
STORM ALERT 2006: We kick off the show Thursday night in Hamilton at Bevill State... we begin at 7:00 but you might want to show up at 6:00 to get a seat. The place will be packed. Hope to see you there!
on January 31, 2006, 6:26 am
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