The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Wow... 589 people have died due to exposure from the cold in the Ukraine in the past two weeks. Amazing to see the record cold over much of the Northern Hemisphere. I know everyone here is talking about the mild January across the "lower 48", but our little corner of the world seems to be an exception. We are really blessed.
Dry weather continues through tomorrow. Another light freeze is likely tonight, but we warm into the low 60s tomorrow afternoon.
THURSDAY: A rather strong vort max rolls into the state on Thursday, and a few showers and thunderstorms are likely. No severe weather; rain amounts of 1/2 inch look likely at this point. The 12Z GFS is a little slower, so a shower or storm is possible at almost any time on Thursday statewide.
FRIDAY: The 12Z run of the GFS follows the lead of the 06Z run, and does not develop a rapidly deepening surface cyclone like we saw on the 00Z last night. I am pretty suspicious of this, but if the new run is correct we won't have any severe weather problems Friday night. Lets hope that is correct, but with such a strong jet max punching overhead I don't believe it just yet.
We will maintain the risk of showers and storms late Friday and Friday night. We need to note it still looks like much of the day Friday should be dry before those storms arrive.
A strong Polar front will roll through late Friday night, sometime in the midnight to 3:00 a.m. time frame....
A WEEKEND CHILL: The one thing all models are screaming is a big change to cold weather for the weekend. Our high of 43 still looks good for Saturday with an icy northwest wind. If we do not have a deep surface low to the north of us, we might have a chance of getting some sunshine on Saturday. But, a rather strong vort max will rotate through the base of the trough, and I still think we will have clouds much of the day. Might not be enough moisture for flurries, but I am not ready to take that out just yet.
The forecast low of 25 Sunday morning also looks good as a middle point... colder valleys might reach the upper teens if the wind can go calm. Sunday will be a dry but chilly day.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: An interesting impulse rolls through on Monday. Looks like this might bring snow to Tennessee north of I-40, with some light rain down this way.
LONG TERM: COLD is the word for the eastern half of the U.S. through much mid-February. No change in our thinking... and a wavy Arctic front just south of here could bring one or two winter storm threats. You can see that is almost every run of the GFS... we just can be specific so far out. There is no skill in a specific forecast beyond seven days.
STORM ALERT 2006: We are looking forward to being in Hamilton Thursday night to kick off our ninth annual severe weather awareness tour across the state. We will be dealing with subjects like the 1932 Alabama tornado outbreak (our deadliest on record), "global warming", and thoughts on the coming hurricane season from Dr. Keith Blackwell, one of the smartest tropical guys in the world (he is down at the University of South Alabama in Mobile). And, we will show some cool new weather technology we are installing now. And yep, t-shirts for the first 500 people and a chance to win more prizes. Hope to see you along the way... get details here:
http://beta.abc3340.com/external.hrb?p=stormalert&w=1
I knocked out the afternoon update a little early today since my program at Meadow View Elementary in Alabaster is at 1:30. be sure and look for those kids on the KIDCAM at 5:00 today on ABC 33/40 News.
I love J.B.'s "by the numbers" post every morning... I have always been a big "numbers" guy. Great stuff!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Wow... 589 people have died due to exposure from the cold in the Ukraine in the past two weeks. Amazing to see the record cold over much of the Northern Hemisphere. I know everyone here is talking about the mild January across the "lower 48", but our little corner of the world seems to be an exception. We are really blessed.
Dry weather continues through tomorrow. Another light freeze is likely tonight, but we warm into the low 60s tomorrow afternoon.
THURSDAY: A rather strong vort max rolls into the state on Thursday, and a few showers and thunderstorms are likely. No severe weather; rain amounts of 1/2 inch look likely at this point. The 12Z GFS is a little slower, so a shower or storm is possible at almost any time on Thursday statewide.
FRIDAY: The 12Z run of the GFS follows the lead of the 06Z run, and does not develop a rapidly deepening surface cyclone like we saw on the 00Z last night. I am pretty suspicious of this, but if the new run is correct we won't have any severe weather problems Friday night. Lets hope that is correct, but with such a strong jet max punching overhead I don't believe it just yet.
We will maintain the risk of showers and storms late Friday and Friday night. We need to note it still looks like much of the day Friday should be dry before those storms arrive.
A strong Polar front will roll through late Friday night, sometime in the midnight to 3:00 a.m. time frame....
A WEEKEND CHILL: The one thing all models are screaming is a big change to cold weather for the weekend. Our high of 43 still looks good for Saturday with an icy northwest wind. If we do not have a deep surface low to the north of us, we might have a chance of getting some sunshine on Saturday. But, a rather strong vort max will rotate through the base of the trough, and I still think we will have clouds much of the day. Might not be enough moisture for flurries, but I am not ready to take that out just yet.
The forecast low of 25 Sunday morning also looks good as a middle point... colder valleys might reach the upper teens if the wind can go calm. Sunday will be a dry but chilly day.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: An interesting impulse rolls through on Monday. Looks like this might bring snow to Tennessee north of I-40, with some light rain down this way.
LONG TERM: COLD is the word for the eastern half of the U.S. through much mid-February. No change in our thinking... and a wavy Arctic front just south of here could bring one or two winter storm threats. You can see that is almost every run of the GFS... we just can be specific so far out. There is no skill in a specific forecast beyond seven days.
STORM ALERT 2006: We are looking forward to being in Hamilton Thursday night to kick off our ninth annual severe weather awareness tour across the state. We will be dealing with subjects like the 1932 Alabama tornado outbreak (our deadliest on record), "global warming", and thoughts on the coming hurricane season from Dr. Keith Blackwell, one of the smartest tropical guys in the world (he is down at the University of South Alabama in Mobile). And, we will show some cool new weather technology we are installing now. And yep, t-shirts for the first 500 people and a chance to win more prizes. Hope to see you along the way... get details here:
http://beta.abc3340.com/external.hrb?p=stormalert&w=1
I knocked out the afternoon update a little early today since my program at Meadow View Elementary in Alabaster is at 1:30. be sure and look for those kids on the KIDCAM at 5:00 today on ABC 33/40 News.
I love J.B.'s "by the numbers" post every morning... I have always been a big "numbers" guy. Great stuff!
on January 31, 2006, 1:41 pm
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