The Wednesday morning map discussion is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Looking at the various computer model output in recent days is enough to make your head spin. The madness continues this morning, although there is somewhat better agreement. The screaming message is that this weekend marks a major pattern change, and February looks like a very cold month for the eastern half of the U.S. This includes the southern U.S.
We are a low latitude state; very cold means different things to different people. No, we won't have highs in the teens and lows below zero through the month. But, the weather will be much, much colder than January. And a few shots of extreme cold are certainly possible down here during the next five weeks.
TODAY: Dry with a nice daytime warm-up. A decent amount of sun through high clouds.
TOMORROW: A strong vort max rolls through with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. No severe weather; rainfall around one-half inch for most spots.
FRIDAY: The Thursday system will leave the atmosphere around here in a state of confusion, and the Friday night upper trough/cold front is beginning to look drier and drier. I think we can rule out any severe storms. In fact, we might not have much rain at all. We will continue to mention a chance of showers late Friday and Friday night, but amounts should be pretty light.
SATURDAY: We will have to sort through all kinds of model disarray here. The latest run of the GFS (06Z) now develops a surface low near Panama City, and spreads a band of rain into South Alabama, and some snow into North Alabama on Saturday. While you can't rule this out, I don't think that is exactly correct. The NAM on the other hand has the developing surface low over North Carolina. Hey, whats a difference of 300 miles between friends!
I expect Saturday to be windy and much colder with temperatures steady or falling... somewhere in the 35 to 45 degree range. Icy northwest winds will make those temps feel much colder. Clouds will hang tough much of the day, and I do think we need to mention a chance of some light rain or light snow.
Snow fans, don't get too excited; if any flakes do fall I don't hold much hope for any accumulation. Moisture will be limited, the ground is warm, etc. You know the problems in this kind of situation.
We should go well down in the 20s early Sunday morning as the sky becomes clear and the wind dies down. I totally reject the GFS MOS products. I will warn you they will stink much of the month of February, most likely.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: Moisture sure looks limited for the feature moving north of the state on Monday. We have some light rain in our ongoing forecast; I guess we can leave that in for now. But it doesn't look very impressive.
COLD COLD FEBRUARY: Watch the video for the graphics out to mid-month. Check out that western Canada ridge.. 500 mb heights rise to 5820 meters by the middle of next week over British Columbia. Amazing. The eastern half of the U.S. will be in the deep freeze. I have great concern over this... utility bills will be sky high and quite a shock to some. And yep, with a southern stream undercutting the cold air I expect at least one or two decent winter storm THREATS during the month here. Strap in and hang on.
WEATHER BRAINS: Hey... we recorded our first long form podcast last night. The show is called Weather Brains. Not because we are smart, but we plan on having smart people as guests on the show. Weather Brains runs 30 minutes or so, and is hosted by David Black of The Weather Company. All of the knuckleheads who post here on the blog are on the first show... I will have details posted shortly on how you can listen and get the RSS feed...
STORM ALERT 2006: Yep, opening night is tomorrow night in Hamilton... scroll down for more info.
I will have the afternoon map discussion video on the server by 3:30 today... as the model madness continues!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Looking at the various computer model output in recent days is enough to make your head spin. The madness continues this morning, although there is somewhat better agreement. The screaming message is that this weekend marks a major pattern change, and February looks like a very cold month for the eastern half of the U.S. This includes the southern U.S.
We are a low latitude state; very cold means different things to different people. No, we won't have highs in the teens and lows below zero through the month. But, the weather will be much, much colder than January. And a few shots of extreme cold are certainly possible down here during the next five weeks.
TODAY: Dry with a nice daytime warm-up. A decent amount of sun through high clouds.
TOMORROW: A strong vort max rolls through with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. No severe weather; rainfall around one-half inch for most spots.
FRIDAY: The Thursday system will leave the atmosphere around here in a state of confusion, and the Friday night upper trough/cold front is beginning to look drier and drier. I think we can rule out any severe storms. In fact, we might not have much rain at all. We will continue to mention a chance of showers late Friday and Friday night, but amounts should be pretty light.
SATURDAY: We will have to sort through all kinds of model disarray here. The latest run of the GFS (06Z) now develops a surface low near Panama City, and spreads a band of rain into South Alabama, and some snow into North Alabama on Saturday. While you can't rule this out, I don't think that is exactly correct. The NAM on the other hand has the developing surface low over North Carolina. Hey, whats a difference of 300 miles between friends!
I expect Saturday to be windy and much colder with temperatures steady or falling... somewhere in the 35 to 45 degree range. Icy northwest winds will make those temps feel much colder. Clouds will hang tough much of the day, and I do think we need to mention a chance of some light rain or light snow.
Snow fans, don't get too excited; if any flakes do fall I don't hold much hope for any accumulation. Moisture will be limited, the ground is warm, etc. You know the problems in this kind of situation.
We should go well down in the 20s early Sunday morning as the sky becomes clear and the wind dies down. I totally reject the GFS MOS products. I will warn you they will stink much of the month of February, most likely.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: Moisture sure looks limited for the feature moving north of the state on Monday. We have some light rain in our ongoing forecast; I guess we can leave that in for now. But it doesn't look very impressive.
COLD COLD FEBRUARY: Watch the video for the graphics out to mid-month. Check out that western Canada ridge.. 500 mb heights rise to 5820 meters by the middle of next week over British Columbia. Amazing. The eastern half of the U.S. will be in the deep freeze. I have great concern over this... utility bills will be sky high and quite a shock to some. And yep, with a southern stream undercutting the cold air I expect at least one or two decent winter storm THREATS during the month here. Strap in and hang on.
WEATHER BRAINS: Hey... we recorded our first long form podcast last night. The show is called Weather Brains. Not because we are smart, but we plan on having smart people as guests on the show. Weather Brains runs 30 minutes or so, and is hosted by David Black of The Weather Company. All of the knuckleheads who post here on the blog are on the first show... I will have details posted shortly on how you can listen and get the RSS feed...
STORM ALERT 2006: Yep, opening night is tomorrow night in Hamilton... scroll down for more info.
I will have the afternoon map discussion video on the server by 3:30 today... as the model madness continues!
It was 24 on the front porch this morning with a heavy frost...looked like snow!!
on February 1, 2006, 6:24 am
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