The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
There are times when I do believe you can look at too much data when putting a forecast together. It can make your head spin, give you heartburn, and make you want to slap your sister. This might be one of those days for us in the weather office. Model madness continues...
But, our job here is to sort through the madness and tell you what we think will happen. So... here goes:
TOMORROW: Wet weather returns with a round of showers and thnderstorms statewide. The new day 2 convective outlook has a slight risk of severe storms along the Mississippi, Alabama, and Northwest Florida Gulf coast. No severe weather is expected here, but rain amounts from 1/2 to 3/4 inch are likely thanks to a small but rather robust upper short wave.
FRIDAY: Much of the day should be dry. The sun might shine at times, and there is just an outside risk of an afternoon shower.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY: The GFS and NAM are about as different as day and night. We lean toward the NAM, which develops a surface low near Mobile (18Z run of the NAM) Friday night, then moving it to near Athens, Georgia by Saturday afternoon as it deepens. The NAM spreads a large mass of precipitation into Alabama with this feature, and we will mention a chance of rain Friday night (mostly light rain; no severe weather).
Much colder air rolls into the state on Saturday, and it looks like temperatures will fall through the day. And, if the NAM is correct, that light rain could change to light snow Saturday before ending. We don't expect any accumulation due to the warm ground. An icy northwest wind will make temperatures feel colder; we will probably fall from the mid 40s into the 30s.
We need to note the GFS shows no surface low around here; it develops a weaker low closer to the Atlantic coast later in the weekend.
One way or another, Saturday will be blustery and cold. Clouds will probably hang tough all day. We will be hoping for better model agreement in the days to come, but it is a very, very interesting forecast.
SUNDAY: We should be well down in the 20s as the day begins with a clear sky; some of the colder valleys might even reach the upper teens. The day will be mostly sunny but chilly with highs in the 45 to 49 degree range.
MONDAY: A fast moving wave could bring a little light rain late Monday and Monday night, but it does not look like a major rain producer. Any snow should be north of I-40 up in Tennessee/Kentucky.
BIG TIME COLD: The pattern is changing in a big way... and the weekend event signals the beginning. Much colder air is about 7 to 8 days away... if the GFS is correct we are talking highs in the 30s and lows in the teens by the end of next week, with several other "Arctic dumps" ahead for mid-month.
And, yes, waves on the Arctic front will bring winter storm THREATS to parts of the Deep South along the way. Cold weather/snow fans should like the wsy the maps are looking. Nobody will like their utility bill come March... it will be very ugly. Be ready now for a very cold February.
STORM ALERT 2006: We are putting the finishing touches on the production elements for the weather tour today... we kick it off tomorrow night in Hamilton at 7:00 at Bevill State. I sure get the idea the place will be packed... you might want to show up by 6:00 to get a seat. We hope to see you there...
The next video will be ready by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
There are times when I do believe you can look at too much data when putting a forecast together. It can make your head spin, give you heartburn, and make you want to slap your sister. This might be one of those days for us in the weather office. Model madness continues...
But, our job here is to sort through the madness and tell you what we think will happen. So... here goes:
TOMORROW: Wet weather returns with a round of showers and thnderstorms statewide. The new day 2 convective outlook has a slight risk of severe storms along the Mississippi, Alabama, and Northwest Florida Gulf coast. No severe weather is expected here, but rain amounts from 1/2 to 3/4 inch are likely thanks to a small but rather robust upper short wave.
FRIDAY: Much of the day should be dry. The sun might shine at times, and there is just an outside risk of an afternoon shower.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY: The GFS and NAM are about as different as day and night. We lean toward the NAM, which develops a surface low near Mobile (18Z run of the NAM) Friday night, then moving it to near Athens, Georgia by Saturday afternoon as it deepens. The NAM spreads a large mass of precipitation into Alabama with this feature, and we will mention a chance of rain Friday night (mostly light rain; no severe weather).
Much colder air rolls into the state on Saturday, and it looks like temperatures will fall through the day. And, if the NAM is correct, that light rain could change to light snow Saturday before ending. We don't expect any accumulation due to the warm ground. An icy northwest wind will make temperatures feel colder; we will probably fall from the mid 40s into the 30s.
We need to note the GFS shows no surface low around here; it develops a weaker low closer to the Atlantic coast later in the weekend.
One way or another, Saturday will be blustery and cold. Clouds will probably hang tough all day. We will be hoping for better model agreement in the days to come, but it is a very, very interesting forecast.
SUNDAY: We should be well down in the 20s as the day begins with a clear sky; some of the colder valleys might even reach the upper teens. The day will be mostly sunny but chilly with highs in the 45 to 49 degree range.
MONDAY: A fast moving wave could bring a little light rain late Monday and Monday night, but it does not look like a major rain producer. Any snow should be north of I-40 up in Tennessee/Kentucky.
BIG TIME COLD: The pattern is changing in a big way... and the weekend event signals the beginning. Much colder air is about 7 to 8 days away... if the GFS is correct we are talking highs in the 30s and lows in the teens by the end of next week, with several other "Arctic dumps" ahead for mid-month.
And, yes, waves on the Arctic front will bring winter storm THREATS to parts of the Deep South along the way. Cold weather/snow fans should like the wsy the maps are looking. Nobody will like their utility bill come March... it will be very ugly. Be ready now for a very cold February.
STORM ALERT 2006: We are putting the finishing touches on the production elements for the weather tour today... we kick it off tomorrow night in Hamilton at 7:00 at Bevill State. I sure get the idea the place will be packed... you might want to show up by 6:00 to get a seat. We hope to see you there...
The next video will be ready by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
on February 1, 2006, 3:10 pm
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