Brian Peters will be along in a bit with his weekend video...
But here are the latest numbers off the 12Z NAM just rolling in:
The model spits out 0.38" of liquid Monday morning, with 850 mp temps (about 5,000 feet AGL) down to -3.7. Dewpoints are in the low 20s prior to the precipitation arriving, which means evaporational cooling should bring surface temperatures down to freezing, or maybe even a tad below freezing.
It is beginning to look like this storm system might produce a strip of snow over North/Central Alabama in the 2 to 4 inch range sometime between 2:00 a.m. and 12:00 noon Monday. And, if this is correct, a winter storm watch will be required tomorrow.
But, before you run down to the store and buy milk and bread, keep in mind:
*Snow is ALWAYS a hard call in Alabama. Timing and placement will be adjusted as we get closer.
*This will be a fast moving system. Not a long term issue.
*Temperatures will warm into the upper 30s Monday afternoon, so if we do get snow there will be some melting during the day and roads will be just wet. The snow could change to rain before ending during the day.
Based on the 12Z NAM, the best placement for the heaviest snow could very well be near I-20 with a surface low moving from around Mobile to Marianna, Florida. THIS IS ONLY ONE MODEL RUN, but there has been good agreement with the 00Z data from last night.
I should also note the GFS MOS numbers are laughable in the longer term. Don't trust anyone who forecasts 50s and 30s in this kind of pattern for any significant length of time.
Stay tuned... I will try to make several posts today on thoughts...
But here are the latest numbers off the 12Z NAM just rolling in:
The model spits out 0.38" of liquid Monday morning, with 850 mp temps (about 5,000 feet AGL) down to -3.7. Dewpoints are in the low 20s prior to the precipitation arriving, which means evaporational cooling should bring surface temperatures down to freezing, or maybe even a tad below freezing.
It is beginning to look like this storm system might produce a strip of snow over North/Central Alabama in the 2 to 4 inch range sometime between 2:00 a.m. and 12:00 noon Monday. And, if this is correct, a winter storm watch will be required tomorrow.
But, before you run down to the store and buy milk and bread, keep in mind:
*Snow is ALWAYS a hard call in Alabama. Timing and placement will be adjusted as we get closer.
*This will be a fast moving system. Not a long term issue.
*Temperatures will warm into the upper 30s Monday afternoon, so if we do get snow there will be some melting during the day and roads will be just wet. The snow could change to rain before ending during the day.
Based on the 12Z NAM, the best placement for the heaviest snow could very well be near I-20 with a surface low moving from around Mobile to Marianna, Florida. THIS IS ONLY ONE MODEL RUN, but there has been good agreement with the 00Z data from last night.
I should also note the GFS MOS numbers are laughable in the longer term. Don't trust anyone who forecasts 50s and 30s in this kind of pattern for any significant length of time.
Stay tuned... I will try to make several posts today on thoughts...
on February 4, 2006, 9:06 am
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