Chilly Weekend - Watch Out for Monday!

February 4, 2006, 10:38 am
Posted by Brian Peters in Weather Discussions
Rating: 0/5   Votes : 0
The Saturday map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Nice round of rain moved through the state last night. Most everyone got a quarter to a half inch with some locally heavier amounts to about one inch. A few severe thunderstorm warnings were issued west and southwest of Birmingham with several hail reports plus a man was struck by lightning in Tuscaloosa County. Just barely into Febraury and we've recorded a tornado fatality and a lightning injury - 2006 is already shaping up badly but maybe it will get better.

Cold weekend in store for the state as we expect to see temperatures remain in the 40s through Monday. All of our attention right now is on the model developments for Monday. At this writing the 12Z NAM was in and the GFS was coming in, so I did not look at the complete GFS. NAM develops a weak low in the vicinity of Mobile on Monday and tracks it quicking east-northeast. With cold air in place and all of the critical thickness parameters in good agreement, it appears right now that we could see 2 to 4 inches of snow along or just north of the I-20 corridor on Monday. Lest anyone think I'm trying to weasel out of that statement, it is just plain a fact that forecasting snow in the Southeast US is a tough task for tomorrow much less two days out. There are at least eight more model runs between now and Monday, but with what the NAM is showing on this latest run, the threat of winter weather for Monday cannot be ignored.

Two items of good news - first, ground temperatures are warm after one of the wamest Januarys on record and two, the system is forecast to move quickly with a strong flow aloft. But this is definitely a stay tuned stiuation and keep informed.

The 06Z GFS model run shows a slight moderation to temperatures for the end of the week which would feel like a real heat wave after several days in the 40s.

Rest assured that I'm not trying to scare anyone or create a run on the grocery stores, just bringing you the latest interpretation of the forecast models. Stay with ABC 3340 as our weather team monitors the developing situation. I'll have another video map discussion tomorrow morning.

-Brian-

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Posted by  
on February 4, 2006, 12:55 pm
LET IT SNOW!!!

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Posted by spam lover  
on February 4, 2006, 1:12 pm
It's not going to accumulate in bham...I haven't seen any snow worth spittin at since 93. Bring on the hurri-blizzard of '06 or get off the pot!

Reply to this comment
Posted by Josh  
on February 4, 2006, 1:34 pm
Here is a detailed map of the low track I put together going by the 12z GFS for this possible snow event:

http://groups.msn.com/_Secure/0PQDmArsRnRGK6No8bU86zE!i8DqRgbIEU9
E1GXcV1Ss9I0960tKp4zvtSPN4sY87SgGsnirWkVyyfxMYoGSjwg2lvpywFHTj/lt
3.JPG

Reply to this comment
Posted by Stephanie Honeycutt  
on February 4, 2006, 2:03 pm
Hazardous Weather Outlook
000
FLUS44 KBMX 041919
HWOBMX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
118 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2006

ALZ011>015-017>050-051918-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-H
ALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY
-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
118 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
UNTIL 6 PM. SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BOATERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION. ADDITIONALLY...MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. DRIVERS ALONG ROADWAYS ORIENTED
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CAN EXPECT STRONG CROSS-WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM TO WEDOWEE. THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW OCCURRING WILL BE NORTH OF A SULLIGENT TO
WARRIOR TO ANNISTON LINE AND ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY
TO MENTION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL FORECAST. IF FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED...A
WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING FOR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

$$




Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 4, 2006, 2:15 pm
Hope you guys get your wish this Monday.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Jeff  
on February 4, 2006, 2:27 pm
For all of us in Southern Jefferson and Shelby Co. it looks like we will miss out on this one. May be "we" will get some snow later this month. Hope So!!

Reply to this comment
Posted by Josh  
on February 4, 2006, 2:56 pm
Yall look at the new 18z NAM model output I put together for Monday morning! :D

18z NAM 2M temps:
http://groups.msn.com/_Secure/0QADpAr8S8VHV5Glwr!Nc8RUi0NtCXNDuSy
hY!kEus0OP9*A5BfiUEu3XTm5IhC!No2psrvLx70Gva4xjsvznWgQuSsZOTzY3zoz
pAgBwWxw/temp10.JPG

THIS PLUS THIS LOOK PRETTY GOOD :D

18z NAM RAIN:
http://groups.msn.com/_Secure/0QwD6AmkTYZF**giJEntCJhPjfi4Eb8DT*R
Q2gpWhSV!tRJIu73oBLtWip6!mUK!Vw!XkgENrNdanGwAEtqRKmDFO*UG3fE!*LOo
fMqsG!Yk/temp2.JPG

18z NAM Pressure map:
http://groups.msn.com/_Secure/0PwAAAJESSEV3Phg3UzEY3TclkU!GdApSCF
nOljXVFrRafx59VX7G9ZKK8mLKKLhRB6NHV!GwCwG494Jh899f8a1BqPznGZN7/te
mp3.JPG

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 4, 2006, 3:05 pm
Hey Josh, according to your data, things look like the heavier snow would be over Western Alabama, like Fayette, and Walker counties and north. Or am I looking at your info wrong?

Reply to this comment
Posted by Josh  
on February 4, 2006, 3:24 pm
Sometimes it can snow at the 1-3 C temp range and that's where it can start to mix with rain. Look at the forecast map at 1 and 2 C lines that's where it could mix at 6AM Monday if the 18z NAM model is right.

It could very well snow all across north Alabama especially on the mountain tops.

18z NAM 2M temps:
http://groups.msn.com/_Secure/0QADpAr8S8VHV5Glwr!Nc8RUi0NtCXNDuSy


hY!kEus0OP9*A5BfiUEu3XTm5IhC!No2psrvLx70Gva4xjsvznWgQuSsZOTzY3zoz

pAgBwWxw/temp10.JPG


New statement:
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2006

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-051000-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
300 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2006

...SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AN
OVERRUNNING SITUATION...IN WHICH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA IS OVERRUN WITH WARMER MOIST
AIR.

THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. A TRACK
FARTHER TO THE NORTH WOULD SHIFT THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE A WINDOW FOR SNOW BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM
MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME.

INTERESTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR A FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET...FOR UPDATES
ON THIS POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT FOR MONDAY.


--------------------------------------------------------



Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
154 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2006

ALZ011>015-017>029-050300-
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LA
MAR-
MARION-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-
WINSTON-
154 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2006

...THIS SEASON`S FIRST THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...

ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ON SUNDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A TUSCALOOSA TO BIRMINGHAM TO
WEDOWEE LINE...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW OCCURRING
ALONG AND NORTH OF A SULLIGENT TO WARRIOR TO ANNISTON LINE. ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA ALL RAIN IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO
MENTION ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL
PREVENT THE SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING ON MOST ROADWAYS...BUT BRIDGES AND
OVER-PASSES COULD BECOME SLICK AT TIMES. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE...
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY ONCE
ANY SNOW DOES DEVELOP.

IF FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN UN-CHANGED...A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY MORNING FOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

PLEASE STAYED TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS
REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

$$







Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 4, 2006, 3:41 pm
Let it snow.....let it snow.....let it snow :)

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 4, 2006, 3:45 pm
Wonder what JB and Miss Molly thinks about the snow potential?

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Posted by  
on February 4, 2006, 6:01 pm
We sure are being quiet this afternoon. Is everyone getting their sleds out or something? I went to the attic to get the snow jackets out. I really hope this works out. For the past few years, instead of seeing the white stuff, I've awoken to hear that 1) there wasn't enough moisture or 2) the clouds acted as insulators and it just didn't get cold enough.
It's also interesting to hear from people who had rather it not snow because of their profession. I have nurse friends who either have to go spend the night, or have somebody come and pick them up. I'm sure policemen and state troopers had rather it not snow. Who else? Probably the power company. I hope if it does snow, people will take the proper precautions and no one gets hurt.

Reply to this comment
Posted by John T.  
on February 4, 2006, 6:21 pm
Hello Snow Lover , my guess is that everyone , like myself is just waiting for the next post , some keeping fingers crossed & some trying to wave it away . I myself am not getting any hopes up but wishfull . Even the other news stations have figured out now or not scared anymore to say what James has been talking about for almost a week. They also are showing us (the B'ham area ) to be on a FINE LINE . At the 6:00 news time John Oldshue is saying basicly the same thing . MAYBE a couple of inches in the grassy areas at the time NO major problems expected at the time . As always a wait & watch situation . Which for some people is torture .

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 4, 2006, 7:37 pm
Something is very funny...There has not been a post hardly all day. When the weather is nice out there is always someone leaving us a blog. Why is there not anyone writing to us. I find this very entertaining. I went to the supercenter and it was very crowded. Might be cause of the Super Bowl. The weather channel is not saying much about this event. All it says is rain and snow showers and only a 40% chance of that. Can anyone give me some more information. I live in Alexandria just 10 miles north of Anniston... Thanks

Reply to this comment
Posted by Greg  
on February 4, 2006, 7:55 pm
Brandon,
Everyone is being cautious because the values are so close. You should get some snow, most likely in the 1-3 inch range, but it could go either way towards to outliers of that range. Tough to nail anything down until the low forms and we know what track it will be on. Anyway, that is why nobody will post. They dont have the guts, and I dont blame them, to make a call until the track of the low gets a little more certain.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 4, 2006, 7:58 pm
Here's my idea of an answer, Brandon:

1) People tired of hearing about snow threats. The whole "cry wolf" thing.

2) Local meteorologists also finally have realized that it isn't worth forecasting confidently what the models are saying 48 hours in advance. They've been burned too many times after making an honest, well analyzed forecast. They're doing the best they can.

3) On weekends, the blog is always less active.

Probably a mixture of those 3 things.

Reply to this comment
Posted by Snow Lover  
on February 4, 2006, 8:26 pm
I keep looking to see if James has posted a new announcement. He must really be working up a good one. I know if he could he would MAKE it snow!

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 4, 2006, 8:38 pm
Hey we are in tuscaloosa and it hardly ever snows down here the last time i can remember was when I had my five year old in dec.2000 right after the tornado it snowed a little bit then. Down here they say a chance of snow we say yeah right it will be a cold horrible rain does anyone know what exactly has to all come together for it to really snow and why it is so hard to determine when it will snow? thanks kristie

Reply to this comment
Posted by Rusty Pitts  
on February 4, 2006, 8:40 pm
Hello to all you fellow bloggers, It is come down to the wait and see game... We all know how this can change from one run to the next but I must admit, the models are in fairly good agreement with this on on Sunday night into monday. With a rain beginning sunday evening and then with some evaporationlal cooling changing over to snow during the early morning hours... The question in everyones mind.... How much ... well it will depend greatly on the track of the low and if that low drops in pressure and deppens , we could be set up for a really good snow.... But again , it could bust and all we would get is a cold rain , if any at all. Letsw all have a good night sleep and plan on being up late tomorrow night and get some real time reports flowing thru here.... Well steph I can tell you have been dancing... dave get the chilli on , micheal do whatever it is you do .... and Goldwing and the rest... lets have some fun.....

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 4, 2006, 8:52 pm
Sounds like its going to be a thin line as far as the snow/rain line. They keep on saying the ground is too warm for the snow to stick or have accum. I remember it snowing in April one time and we had around 5 inches on the ground. It had been above freezing all week when that storm hit. So whats the difference. Please excuse my spelling...

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 4, 2006, 8:56 pm
Hey Rusty that is what I say let's just wait and see what will happen.

Reply to this comment
Posted by John T.  
on February 4, 2006, 9:41 pm
Kristie, for us to have a "classic" snow storm we have to have what is called "overrunning". The cold air allready in place ( around 32* ) and for the atmosphere at different layers to be at freezing and a strong low pressure system , or storm , to form just in the right place , rite along the gulf coast area , and for it to "track" correctly . The storm system spreads the gulf moisture up & over the cold air and if the temps. are cold enough you get snow . The deeper or stronger the "low" or storm the heavier & bigger the snow flakes . Like the blizzard for ex. . And what Brandon is talking about the way I see it, even if the ground temp. is not at freezing but close , & if the snow falls heavy enough, then the flakes seem to stick to each other more and they start to accumalate more & better once they hit the ground . So , as you see , most of the time we stay on a VERY FINE LINE , just like this potential event and even the best-of-the-best just don't know until it starts to happen . Winter wx for the south is the most difficult to predict . The computers models just go crazy with disagreements with each other in trying to figure these paticular storm out . This is why most meteorologists will not forecast any snow unless the trustworthy models are screaming at you "danger, danger , lookout " like at what James say before and during the great blizzard . I hope this correct enough , Rusty , James, Bill, or any of the other experts if it is not my appologies and please correct me . I hope this helps some Kristie & Bradon and anyone else . All this is from my listening , learning , and experience over the years . Again I am NOT a meteorologist just an enthuseist ....thanks .

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Posted by  
on February 4, 2006, 11:24 pm
thank you so much

Reply to this comment
Posted by Greg  
on February 4, 2006, 9:53 pm
This is ABSURD that Brian, JB, or James have not posted anything. If it ends up snowing, they should be BLASTED for not keeping everyone informed.

Reply to this comment
Posted by  
on February 4, 2006, 10:03 pm
snow? in tucaloosa co.
its hard to predict snow in al.
our family sees snow possibility as if its on the ground it snowed, that is how long we have not seen any.

Reply to this comment
Posted by HateMail  
on February 4, 2006, 10:07 pm
yay for the hate mail!!!

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Posted by Stephanie Honeycutt  
on February 4, 2006, 10:14 pm
Well, I'll be!!

Guys they are watching and waiting. We are lucky to have the team we have. I have compared forcasting today - most stations haven't updated since Friday pm. They will let us know something when there is something new to report. Please, have some patience................

Reply to this comment
Posted by joe  
on February 4, 2006, 10:25 pm
That's right Greg, because the possibility of a few inches of snow 2 days out is life or death... Gosh without them updating the blog, I'm just not sure what to do! My life is in such a state of turmoil and pain now that I haven't heard in a little while about the latest model run. It is the weekend.. give them a break.. find something to do.. knit a sweater or something... polish the sled.. etc.

Deep breath everyone.. lets calm down.

Reply to this comment
Posted by John T.  
on February 4, 2006, 10:30 pm
Come on yaw, chill out . What is there to report besides the same thing ? Can yaw not watch the tv report just like I did ? John said the computer models have not really changed and its "dido". Now you all know that these guys are in a danged if they do , danged if they don't situation . Again , what could say besides we have a desent shot from Tusc. , B'ham. and north of having snow . Calm down , we are not in a life & death situation , just because we are just sitting & staring at the computer does not mean they don't have a weakend life . If it were occuring they would be all over the blog & you all know it . Yes, I know I'm going to get blasted for posting this but give them a break for nothing going on . Common since you all , common since .

Reply to this comment
Posted by Snow Lover  
on February 4, 2006, 10:33 pm
Joe, you are so funny!!!! It is strange that we're not hearing anything. The suspence just keeps building....Well, I've gotta go...I'm polishing the sled with my feet, knitting with my hands and typing this with my nose!

Reply to this comment
Posted by John T.  
on February 4, 2006, 10:47 pm
Joe that post was almost priceless sir . Very well said .

Reply to this comment
Posted by John T.  
on February 4, 2006, 11:39 pm
If you all did not know James has posted a late statment saying exactly what I figured he would say . All can relax now & have a good nites rest and dream snow . No worries .

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